Liberty

http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm Except if 300 years is short term. Do you have a more direct citation? I'm not going to read that whole site. But this highlights the difficulty of looking at a single piece of technology or scientific discovery in isolation. How many of the developments starting in 1800 would have happened in a world without a printing press?

No economic impact at all from the invention of the printing press? That's a pretty bold claim that would need some very solid data to support, IMO, unless you mean in the very short term. Almost all technological and scientific innovations that happened after the printing press depend on its as a way to spread and archive information. As for religious wars, those always found some excuse to happen... It says more about religions (which all claim to be about peace) than about the printing press.

Science and technology don't only exist to grow the economy, though. The James Webb space telescope* won't have the effect of containers on GDP, but it might help us better understand the universe. * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope

Thiel funds some very forward looking people, like the SENS Research Foundation (the only charity I donate to). I think he's just trying to bring some attention to the real problem of not enough smart people going into more productive fields, and encourage people to get off their butts and help move us forward, which is not a bad thing -- all this innovation doesn't just happen by itself. But it still doesn't make the general claim that there's been no innovation in decades true.

There's a ton of stuff happening, it'll just take a while before we realize how important it is, mostly because people look in the rearview mirror instead of forward. Just look at genetics and biotech.. How many genomes have we decoded now? We used to dream of the day when we could do just the human one (which wasn't so long ago). And now we're learning so much about epigenetics. Synthetic life is close too (Craig Venter's one person working on that). There's groundbreaking particle physics happening, exoplanets being found, great stuff coming out of evolutionary psychology and neuroscience, etc. Great breakthroughs in clean energy, battery tech, smart grids, etc. Or even look at the internet and google (software not getting smarter?) and all the tech - hardware and software - crammed in internet-enabled smartphones. There's a ton of stuff we take for granted that would look like total sci-fi to people 30 years ago (heck, even 12 years ago wikipedia was just starting out and Youtube was founded in 2006, yet we're already blazé about such marvels). Just watching that documentary about the days of the dot com bubble on youtube the other day made me feel like I was watching something terribly old (all those huge CRT monitors and slow dial up modems)... Someday we'll have our ubiquitous 3D printing (including 3D printed scaffolds for replacement organs filled out from someone's own stem cell line) and personalized drugs that cure cancer and alzheimer's and self-driving cars and all that and we'll look back to today as a great period for science and technology, just like we're now looking back to past decades, IMO. Though by then we'll probably be totally unimpressed by all those things and will complain about nothing new happening.

Not being a shareholder, I hope there is a lot of competition in that industry. I care more about cleaning up the power grid than about SolarCity succeeding.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/13/autos/tesla-sales-bmw-mercedes-audi/index.html http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/130510073830-tesla-model-s-sales-chart-620xa.png

Tesla + solar panels = good combination ;)

Thanks! I have no problem with the adsense ads, but this floating banner on mobile browsers was creating a bad user experience, especially because it was so easy to hit it with a finger by accident.

For those who missed it, it is archived here: http://www.livestream.com/levoleague

Thank you, really interesting. I don't think I had ever seen a video of Buffett this young (if anyone knows of other good ones, I'd love to see them).

Yeah, if you avoid all the obviously bad things, the biggest factor seems to be genetics, which is why biomedical research is our best hope.

This is a good presentation on sugar if memory serves me right. I haven't seen it in a couple years, but I think it gives a good overview of a lot of recent research:

It's a problem right now, but soon there will be many more Supercharger stations. The stated goal is for Tesla owners to be able to drive pretty much anywhere in the US while always being in range of a station (exceptions of course in really rural areas, but even there you'll eventually find charging stations -- they just won't be Superchargers). And if you really want to drive that route in the meantime, you can always find a regular charging station in between, stop to have a coffee and charge enough miles to get you to the next Supercharger. No need to charge fully at a regular station, just enough to get you home or to the next fast one (with a margin of safety, of course ;) ). The onboard mapping system will help you find all the charging stations on your route (more are popping up all the time).

Very cool! And there are Supercharger stations close (these can drive ridiculous amounts of current and recharge your battery faster than anything else -- they're also free to use for Tesla owners): http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger So if you ever decided to take longer trips, shouldn't be a problem.

My trick to fight the diseases of aging is to donate money to biomedical research (more specifically, the SENS Research Foundation -- www.sens.org) :)

Guess we'll have to wait and see. Experts were saying that Tesla couldn't do what it has already done, so it wouldn't be the first time. Personally, I don't see why Tesla would need to increase it's production rate from 20k/year to 500k+/year to cut the cost of a next generation vehicle in half. They'll need to increase, but not by 25x. Batteries are improving storage capacity at something like 7-8% a year last I checked, so in a few years a smaller battery will have the same range. They'll no doubt make the next platform start out with a lower range, be smaller and have fewer bells & whistles, and re-use/adapt a lot of the power electronics, software, motor tech, etc, from the Model S, so no need to spend on re-inventing the wheel. There are a lot fewer parts than in a gas car, so the investment in re-tooling and new machinery is a lot lower. Totally doable, IMO.

More "out of curiosity" questions: What color did you pick? Do you live close to Supercharger stations (not that it'll be a problem over time.. check out their future expansion plans: http://goo.gl/OoqGg http://goo.gl/CD39O )? Do you have a delivery date yet?

You don't necessarily need to sell that many. Nissan is already selling the LEAF for a pretty low price, and I'd expect that they will cut prices further over time now that they are ramping up their TN factory. I think Tesla can do much better than them in a few years (in good part because they're much leaner and smarter, and also thanks to the natural drop in price of components over time). edit: I think we have to be careful about anchoring. If gas cars didn't exist and someone came up with one today, showing you all the different parts, a lot of them moving.. You'd probably think it costs a lot more than an electric car.

Indeed, that can be confusing, and I myself probably aren't always clear when I talk about "the next platform" or the "next generation". The Model X is a Model S variant so I never consider it as anything more, but not everybody knows that.

Where did you get that Model X was supposed to be sub 40k? The Model X is built on the Model S platform and should have similar pricing. It's the next platform - still under development - that should be less expensive and built in higher volumes.

Yep. The non-performance model is 5.4 secs, iirc.

I doubt it's a problem. I mean, how hard can running A/C be compared to accelerating a big sedan from 0 to 60 in 5 seconds?

Apart from the tires, almost nothing needs as much maintenance in an EV as in a gas car. The brakes almost don't wear out because most braking is done using regenerative braking, A/C is electric and I'd imagine more reliable (thought maybe not, but not a big deal), and there's pretty much no fluids and such to change. Tesla has even recently made their yearly maintenance checkup optional without any effect on warranty. As for battery lifetime, the battery doesn't stop working after 10 years or whatever, it just doesn't hold as much charge. That's a problem if you travel very far often, but if not, you can probably keep the same battery until the car is old enough you don't want it anymore anyway. Not to mention that in a decade, a new battery pack will probably cost a fraction of what it costs now.

Consumer Reports gave the Model S 99 out of 100, says it's the "best car they've ever tested": http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/magazine/2013/07/tesla-model-s-review/index.htm http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/2013/05/video-the-tesla-model-s-is-our-top-scoring-car.html