Jump to content

bathtime

Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by bathtime

    Do you think Bitcoin is a safe store of value?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I stumbled upon a Bitcoin forum tonight, wow, it's highly active. I didn't realize people are so enamored with it, it's an entire subculture.

     

    https://bitcointalk.org/

     

    This piece by someone who says they put all their money into Bitcoin last spring gave me some insight into the mindset of Bitcoin supporters. Wow, you could buy 10 thousand Bitcoin for $50 two years ago!

     

    http://falkvinge.net/2011/05/29/why-im-putting-all-my-savings-into-bitcoin/

     

    "Normal currencies vary by a few percent over the course of a year. Not bitcoin. On March 30 of last year, somebody asked for $50 for 10,000 BTC (bitcoin) in the trading and wasn’t taken up on the offer. He got an offer of $25. Still, somebody claimed in the thread that the going rate was about USD 6.50 per thousand bitcoin. That’s per thousand. So while there are conflicting numbers between $2.50 and $6.50 as the rate for 1,000 BTC, let’s be conservative and go with the higher $6.50 per thousand BTC and compare it to today. As of midnight UTC on May 29, 2011, the rate is USD 8.30 per bit coin."

     

    Wow, you could buy 1

    CYPRUS savers take 10% hit

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    With the British having a longtime military presence on the island with two prominent bases, not to mention the UN presence, I don't see Russia landing a military base. Neither the British or NATO would be happy and the British aren't going to give theirs up. I can't imagine Cyprus would be pleased either - who wants multiple foreign military bases on your soil?

     

    Some financial writer suggested Cyprus workout a bailout from Turkey in exchange for a new peace agreement. Highly unlikely prospect. About as likely to happen as the Democrats and Republicans forming a unity party. There is such deep animosity between the two sides.

     

    Stasis is a more powerful force than an outside journalist can see. Since I have personal experience with Cyprus, including family there, it's odd to see it in the headlines daily. For me it illuminates that when countries are put under the the moment to moment microscope of the media in the midst of a financial crisis they can seem otherworldly, a pawn subject to the whims of larger forces. But it's just an ordinary place like everywhere else - change doesn't come easily.

     

     

     

    U.S. Green Card via EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program - Ideas?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    My cousin and his family are from the UK and live in California - where he started a business. He's looking to invest in a project that meets the criteria for obtaining a green card via the U.S. government's EB-5 Immigrant Investor program.

     

    The stipulation for investment is,  "You must invest $1,000,000, or at least $500,000 in a targeted employment area (high unemployment or rural area)." The business must create at least ten full-time jobs. (Government's page on the program: http://1.usa.gov/9RItQM)

     

    Common areas of investment for green card investors are ski resorts and hotels:

     

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/us/31vermont.html

    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/09/06/visas-for-dollars-program-a-boon-to-hotel-developers/

     

    Has anyone dealt with this and found any investment projects that meet the criteria, yet would also appeal to a value investor? Thanks!

    Best Movie of The Year!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Thank you for the "Les Miserables" recommendation. I will put it on my short list and have always liked Hugh Jackman - would loved to have seen his one man show on Broadway.

     

    The new "Anna Karenina" was very much a positive surprise for me. I can't remember the last time I saw a director take such an artistic leap forward. I felt the film visually pushed the cinematic medium in a way that is unusual. I wasn't a fan of director Joe Wright's last film Hanna, and didn't find his prior work "Atonement" and "Pride and Prejudice" striking.

     

    "Anna Karenina" would definitely make my best of 2012 list, though it would be hard to top the Iranian film "A Separation."

    Elon Musk, the 21st Century Industrialist

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks, west. Interesting to hear another perspective.

     

    It's almost as if you're describing some passages from the Steve Jobs bio. I've made it halfway through and he was more of a nightmare to work with than I thought - at least in the early years.

     

    Maybe Musk has a faster learning curve (and fewer demons), I'm actually really impressed by the Model S after reading the NYT review. If I had the money, I might buy one myself.

     

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/30/automobiles/autoreviews/one-big-step-for-tesla-one-giant-leap-for-evs.html

     

     

    Elon Musk, the 21st Century Industrialist

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    My parents were neighbors with a designer at Tesla and apparently the designer thought Musk ran the company in haphazard fashion - frustratingly so. I have the impression that he is a great visionary, but a poor CEO - at least when it comes to building a car company from scratch, which must be one of the harder things to do successfully.

    For You Believers in DELL

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Fwiw, DELL triggered a buy on Bill Cara's RSI tool on Friday:

     

    http://rsi.caracommunity.com/RSIApp/RSIApp.html#dell

     

    "Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2012-09-14 at $10.83, +0.00% chg], after a 15 day AZ)"

     

    To put its use into context, here's Bill Cara's recent exchange with a commenter.

     

    -----

    I would like to thank Bill for his RSI tool and how great it is. A buy alert for VALE came up on 9/6 and i got in at 16.96 and it has shot up. Thanks for the great tool!

    -----

    I'm happy you are happy! But, in its simplest form, RSI has an average performance of all the indicators. You might have been looking at several factors subconsciously before making that decision. In fact I know that any one indicator is not enough, and when it does appear to be working really well, the market will adjust until it doesn't. I have always said that to invest successfully, we need a tool kit and then approach the decision making with the same common sense that the typical business person does.

    ----

    Prasad, please don't tell me you're impressed by the new iPhone

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I think the new design/larger screen is a beautiful refinement of the iPhone, so while some don't see much change, I see this version as being a major advancement.

     

    All that said, I am no longer sure I will get one once my contract rolls over. I'm on Verizon and it's not possible to be on the phone and access the web  (unless on wifi) at the same time - something that's possible on AT&T. This is a disappointment to me as I am able to perform this function on my HTC Thunderbolt on Verizon, as do many other Android phones:

     

    http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/13/iphone-5-calls-data/

    For You Believers in DELL

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    http://blogs.forrester.com/tim_sheedy/12-07-10-can_dell_be_your_strategic_vendor_in_asia_pacific

     

    -----

    However, I was pleasantly surprised – Dell is reinventing itself from a PC and server supplier into an IT solutions provider. The benefits of the acquisition of Perot Systems and various software assets in North America and around the globe are starting to pay dividends in Asia Pacific.

     

    As a late entrant into many of the newer markets they play in, they have the rare advantage of being able to do things differently – both from a solution and a pricing standpoint. From data centre transformation through legacy migration and application modernisation, to networking solutions, Dell is attempting to be disruptive player in the market – simplifying processes that were typically human-centric, and automating capabilities to reduce the overall burden of owning and running infrastructure.

     

    Their strategy is to stay close to what they know – much of their capability is linked directly to infrastructure – but their open, modular, and somewhat vendor agnostic approach is in direct opposition to the “vendor lock-in” solutions that many of the other major vendors push.

     

    A key strength for Dell’s solutions business (outside of hardware) in Asia Pacific is, and will continue to be, their focus on companies below the Fortune 500– and in Japan they are starting to steal big accounts from the traditional IT services providers. Many vendors are focused on the top end of town – and spend much of their sales energies winning these clients, and their support energies keeping them happy. Dell is good at winning and supporting solutions engagements the next tier down – which represents many companies in Asia Pacific.

    -------------

    For You Believers in DELL

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    That sounds great in theory. But will it work? If they are planning to selling integrated solutions + services, they need to co-ordinate release schedules, sales, support, operations, etc. If not, they will have a hard time competing against the likes of IBM.

     

    I really don't know. I'd been looking at cheap big tech and at HPQ as a value play, Klarman continues to buy, but now that DELL has come down in price I'm finding it more interesting in risk/reward. I'm much more comfortable with management, debt position better. DELL's intentions regarding acquisitions seem a lot smarter than HPQ's continual mistakes on that front. The new software VP has top notch credentials and past successes and will be key to making these integrations work. Certainly there is uncertainty.

     

    I'm also guided by a technical tool I use to time intermediate buys, which I can find helpful. It has DELL in the "accumulation zone" prior to a buy signal:

     

    http://rsi.caracommunity.com/RSIApp/RSIApp.html#dell

     

     

    For You Believers in DELL

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    A Dell engineer's blog post on Windows 8 - in repsonse to an email from Michael Dell soliciting his thoughts:

     

    http://cathcam.wordpress.com/2012/06/10/windows-8-hero-or-villain/

     

    Dell's reply was, "Sounds great Mark and I am seeing this in a similar way to your view below but you’ve added some new insights."

     

    Forrester analyst on Dell's hiring of John Swainson to head their software group in Feb 2012:

     

    http://blogs.computerworlduk.com/infrastructure-and-operations/2012/02/suddenly-dell-is-a-software-company-and-can-flourish-under-new-president-john-swainson/index.htm

     

    "The next six months will tell you a lot about Swainson's impact. We expect him to make some audacious moves soon to indicate his intentions. An example would be a major acquisition. It has a good cash position as you can see in the chart. If Dell remains silent or ambivalent through this period, dump Dell. If the company does - as we expect - make some ambitious moves, Dell will be a very serious contender for your future data centre. "

     

    Then in April 2012 Dell announced three acquisitions Wyse, Clerity Solutions, and Make Technologies. The engineer commented:

     

    http://cathcam.wordpress.com/2012/04/06/back-to-the-future/

     

    "A great set of solutions to let organizations looking to really get  their older apps into a modern execution and device environment. Exciting times for the Dell team supporting these customers.

     

    This very much reminds me of 14-15 years ago and a whole slew of projects where we were trying to drive similar modernization into applications. IBM Network Station was about to be launched; we had a useful first release of the CICS Transcation Gateway and their was a great start at integrating Java with COBOL based applications and some fledgling work on extending the COBOL language to support object oriented principles. My poster session at the IBM Academy of Technology was on legacy modernization. In those days it was obvious that customers needed tools to help them get from where they’d been to where they would be going.

     

    Enough never really got there, the financial case wasn’t often enough. However, given the performance, scalability and reliability of today’s x86/x64 systems, the lack of progress and demand for change have passed compelling, it’s essential."

     

    Then in July he posted:

     

    "Yesterday was a big day for Dell Software Group under the direction of new Senior Vice President, John Swainson, as Dell announced the acquisition of Quest Software. And in other news, I’m moving from Enterprise Systems Group at Dell, to work for VP and CTO of Dell Software Group, Don Ferguson.

     

    I previously worked with Don at IBM, we overlapped in a couple of roles, in my early work on the Java connector architecture, and later in IBMs corporate On Demand initiative. We also worked together in the IBM Academy of Technology and the Systems Group Advanced e-business Council. Another former IBM colleague also emailed me this morning to confirm he had resigned and would be coming to work with us. Exciting times."

    For You Believers in DELL

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Is the growth coming from acquisitions or are they organically growing? In other words, are they just buying growth?

     

    It's been mentioned in this thread, but Michael Dell talks of dropping the acquisitions into Dell's existing customer network, so the acquisitions have an expanded customer base leading to new growth. I liked M. Dell's philosophy on acquisitions - allowing those companies to maintain a certain independence (rather than merging them into the whole), while offering them access and resources to expand more quickly - which also results in better employee retention in the acquired.

    Ryan Talking Out His Arse?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I'd rather Romney have picked Portman to reinforce his economic strengths. Portman has a good reputation for working with Dems, whereas Ryan seems an ideologue - see his behavior on the Simpson-Bowles commission, for example.

     

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79724.html

     

    ------------

    Now the saintly, do-good aura that surrounds Simpson-Bowles presents an awkward challenge for Mitt Romney and his running mate. Romney is pitching Ryan as a problem solver who wants to use his command of the budget to forge bipartisan deals to solve the nation’s fiscal crisis.

     

    But in reality, Ryan, according to the recollection of some commission members and staffers, was a key part of the dynamic that undermined the commission and allowed the triumph of partisan and ideological loyalties over a budget deal.

    ----------

     

    Karl Denninger, a libertarian financial blogger, really dislikes Ryan:

     

    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=210028

     

    -------------

    And Ryan is one of the liars-in-chief in the House.  If you need your memory refreshed may I recommend you read the following links:

     

    (discretionary budget, welfare reform, retirement security and more)

    (voted for and supported TARP)

    (Medicare, cost-shifting at gunpoint and more)

    (more Medicare lies)

    (Ryan's fraudulent -- for the second time -- budget proposal) and of course

    (Ryan's lies about the sequester ex-post-facto creating exemptions to it)

     

    The problem with Ryan is that he's not a "conservative" at all.  Beyond the fiscal mess documented up above -- a mess he not only helped create but is promulgating and continuing, along with the explicit and implicit support of frauds up and down the line in our financial system via TARP and other schemes he also supports blatantly unconstitutional laws on top of it, including The Patriot Act, warrantless wiretaps, retroactive immunity for telecommunications firms that broke the law on warrant requirements and more.

    -------------

×
×
  • Create New...