bathtime
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Posts posted by bathtime
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WISH. Everyone seems to dislike this company except for some of the WSB herd. I still can’t understand why Jackie Reses, who was brilliant at Square, would join full time. She could have had any job she wanted. Any job. And she took a comp package that has $20-$30+ on the shares for payout. Is the goal to shape up the business and sell? Revamp strategy? You know she has a plan.
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11 hours ago, Gregmal said:
rebought a bunch of PSTH warrants. Finally getting appealing on a non-speculative hot potato basis now that the hot money has left.
Nice, I started a little high at $4. Benefit I see compared to many other SPACS is that Ackman will more likely be buying an already profitable company. So there’ll be a reasonable growth compounding over five years to support equity/warrant appreciation. -
15 hours ago, bathtime said:
Thanks, that's great color on both Caribou and other CRISPR names! Appreciate it. And really interesting to hear that you've been tracking it for so long — and rate the IP as quality.
At $16/share, if underwriters exercise their option for additional shares, CRBU has market cap of approx. $916m with cash of approx. $398m. Seems like a relative value compared to other CRISPR companies.
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5 hours ago, Gregmal said:
Caribou has long been a private market white whale of mine. I generally have pretty good luck snagging private shares in companies I like but this one always evaded me, including a few ROFRs. I wrote up the entire CRISPR theme here some years ago, and like most wildly successful investments here, it was largely an unpopular thread and IIRC met with a lot of skepticism or critique. At the time, you could buy every real public market CRISPR play for a valuation of less than $5B. Today that number is north of $40B or so. Theres been some major developments, but in terms of the players, the main thing is that EDIT is an established turd and NTLA has made some serious progress.
The only two major players that Im aware of that remained non public were Caribou and Synthego. So now that CRBU is public I just bit the bullet and bought a position. I dont even think the valuation, net cash, is that egregious. Caribou has always kind of been more secretive and stands out IMO as having the greatest IP protections and pipeline to new CRISPR uses through the platform along with maybe BEAM.
Thanks, that's great color on both Caribou and other CRISPR names! Appreciate it. And really interesting to hear that you've been tracking it for so long — and rate the IP as quality.
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On 7/23/2021 at 12:27 PM, Gregmal said:
CRBU
What’s your thesis on CRBU in relation to other CRISPR companies? Thanks! -
PSTH as a money market proxy.
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GME. ;)
Just a few shares in the 70s as an option on volatility.
Mark Cuban made some interesting points on the WSB AMA this morning.
What points did you find interesting?
Less his logic and more that he was encouraging them to HODL even after the big price drop today. Which will give them the motivation to continue to try to pump it.
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GME. ;)
Just a few shares in the 70s as an option on volatility.
Mark Cuban made some interesting points on the WSB AMA this morning.
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INMD, OTCM
nspo, what's your take on INMD and their devices? I saw Ibex has it as a top holding, and I respect their research.
However, management looks a bit sketchy, as elaborated on in this short piece: http://www.mavalue.org/research/inmd-dont-get-your-face-burned-off/
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PYCO, thanks Gregmal.
GBTC, as a hedge against not having GBTC.
Premium dropped as low as 7-8% this morning. TSLA Jan 2022 puts, as a hedge against my disappointment if TSLA collapses and I don’t participate.
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Average GEOS was high $5s. Started buying around $6.50 and pyramided into about a 2% position in the mid 5s.
Either lucky or good, who cares right? Strange though seeing a pretty legit, almost net-net type US listed company like that. Chart looks good and I'm hoping we push towards $8 for the rest. Setup still seems there, but I'm getting a little skittish with the market and also building a new core position. And also as discussed, dont want to marry this bitch.
If I learned one thing about O&G investing in the last 10 years is that you "rent" them, you never "marry" them. Size them small and diversified. Your mental health will thank you greatly in the end.
I’m finally getting my thick skull to realize that. Have wasted way too much time trying to make money off O&G in the last 15 years.
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Bought NKLA puts.
Agreed, has some parallels to ‘99.
Curious what date/strike? Had some Dec 11 $25s in my cross hairs today but held off as $2 for 2 weeks seemed a tad steep.
I did the Jan 15 30-strike puts. I’m not an expert with options. I read today that 160m shares come out of lockup on Dec. 1, so I put on a small trade. Yes, premium so steep it’s hard to put on a bigger position.
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Bought NKLA puts.
Agreed, has some parallels to ‘99.
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AT, WBA
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Yes, VSAT is interesting as Baupost has that board observer role. And with their recent investment in high 30s a 24% stake. So they’re not short on inside knowledge. Just wonder what they see of value given LEO threat.
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A few I’m bookmarking:
SATS, VSAT (Klarman still buying), Discovery, INTC.
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Anyone planning a tax-loss selling buy list? Ideas?
Given this strange year in the markets I’ve not given it much thought. But in past years year-end has often been a source of great trades.
With energy starting to get a bid, for example, I don’t know if it will see a further sell-off from tax selling. But if it did that’s one area I’d be looking for buys.
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Selling my trading position in DMRC, after the 80% move in three weeks, keeping the core.
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DMRC. IMO, still cheap even after today's 20% move. Current market cap equivalent to legacy central banks business. Platform optionality starting to come together - of which plastics/recycling is just one of many markets. Baillie Gifford (longterm TSLA investors) owns 6%.
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I feel happy when my returns are good but I’m not claiming to be a good investor. Although I do think I could add value to an investment enterprise because I like to think I am a very good explorer of ideas. It’s also helpful to know that life is not about money.
I’ve taken calculated risk, usually concentrated positions, watched them closely, and sometimes it has worked out and sometimes it hasn’t.
I wasn’t sure that posting good returns publicly here was a good idea as it invites hubris. But I did work my ass off, and struggled to get them, so it was a way to give myself a pat on the back since I don’t really have other people in my life I can talk to about this stuff.
I probably won’t post anything more about these returns as all things being equal I probably just got lucky in one form or another.
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2018: 53%
2017: -32%
2016: 362%
Feel good about these last three years of returns. I use a value/growth/special situations strategy. Styles aside my biggest strength is being a good researcher and synthesizing investment ideas from value investors in the field
This is my IRA so taxes are not a factor. Should have stayed in high cash levels once the market started to crack this year, but obviously I’m grateful overall.
Between 1998 and 2010 I averaged 20% returns a year in my non-retirement accounts. And then screwed that account up by making macro bets against the market. Hopefully I’ve learned some lessons over the years.
Biggest winner was Aimia. Biggest mistake was riding energy down in the last quarter.
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I think we can all read the tea leaves here.
Energold is up 5% today, which implies that Buffett began accumulating on Calonego's advice - given that Calonego is partnered with Kuppy.
Which implies that Buffett wants Calonego to succeed him at Berkshire and is wining and dining him.
Which also implies that Buffett badly wants YAK's insurance business. So much so that Buffett may be considering a 50/50 merger to both secure the new market and a new heir to the throne at Berkshire Hathaway.
Clearly. ;)
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted
Ha.
The fanboys think she’s going to make it a fintech, by moving into payments. But she threw cold water on that in a Tweet response and said it was an e-commerce company not a fintech.
There was a time when everyone hated SNAP’s business prospects. So I’m wondering if WISH can pull off a transformation. Plenty of cash and they’re pulling way back on ad spend. Which is probably Reses’ counsel. New CFO is next move. If GME can moon from just ex Amazon hires. Maybe WISH can do a similar but less dramatic org shift.