merkhet
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Posts posted by merkhet
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Embry is obviously talking his book...
That's certainly true, but I think the Sprott crew is, on the whole, pretty much on the up and up -- though we'd have to be cautious in ferreting out any confirmation biases, etc.
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Not sure about the accuracy here... but I remember reading this a few weeks ago.
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"Still, on a 10-year historical free cash flow average of around $7 billion a year, a $50 billion market cap just seems... wrong" -it would appear that you right as the $7 billion does not include reserves for bad loans...
Ah, that makes more sense now. Thanks guys.
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But if credit card fees are reduced/limited, that FCF average from the past 10 years is rather meaningless.
Very true. It all depends on how much revenue/FCF comes from discount fees, membership fees, travel fees/commissions, etc.
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I really like Reed Hastings as a CEO. The Fortune article on him is a good read as well.
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Ah, the antitrust case? I'll have to look into that. Thanks.
Still, on a 10-year historical free cash flow average of around $7 billion a year, a $50 billion market cap just seems... wrong.
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I saw that there was a thread on Visa and Mastercard, but there wasn't a discussion of American Express.
I've only taken a cursory look here, but it looks like AXP is trading at a ridiculously price to free cash flow multiple. I'm wondering if I'm missing something here.
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Dropbox works great. According to the technology class I went to, it is secure and guarded (and I think (?) it utilizes the Amazon servers).
I'm not sure if they use the EC2 severs at Amazon, but they do have a little writeup on their security.
http://www.dropbox.com/help/27
The other thing I love about dropbox is their public folder that you can use to share things with other people. (This is important since I used to use drop.io, but it got bought, so now I just use the dropbox public folder.)
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I'm a little late to the party on the discussion of what to use as a reader for 10-Ks and 10-Qs, but my favorite method is to combined dropbox on my Mac (works on PC as well) with an iPad and the free dropbox app.
Essentially, dropbox creates a folder that syncs with a remote server, so you just create a folder for all your research documents on your computer. Every time you save something to that folder, the application automatically uploads it to the remote server. Then you just access the remote server via the dropbox app on your iPad.
Sadly, you can't add notes on the iPad, but it certainly saves on printing reams and reams of annual and quarterly filings.
(link to get a dropbox account below)
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I don't own any NFLX and agree it seems quite overvalued on a P/E basis. I think it's potential as a takeover target makes it a difficult stock to short. Companies like Apple, Google, Microsoft etc would love to have their business. If the stock got low enough, I think they'd see an offer.
That said, I do think companies like Apple could replicate Netflix's service for far less than $10 Billion (NFLX's current market cap) without taking on all Netflix's physical distribution centers.
Aside from the already discussed 100% upside and unlimited downside angle on shorts, this is probably the primary reason not to short Netflix. I seriously considered it at $170/share, but there's just no telling what a bunch of tech companies flush with cash will decide to do...
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I am hoping this breakup will be great for spinoff junkies.
I sure hope so -- I'm not particularly excited about any of the other upcoming spinoffs (Sunoco, Motorola, etc.) so it'd be nice to get a good one out of Fortune.
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Sprott's argument on silver sounds very much like the argument for natural gas. NG is 6:1 BTU content to oil, was trading at 12:1, and many including Southeastern's Hawkins and Cately argued that it would trade back to 6:1. It didn't. Now it trades somewhere between 15 to 20:1.
It's just a mean reversion to a historical relative ratio.
Well, to be fair, the reason natural gas hasn't mean reverted is because, in the United States, we have a large increase of supply via shale gas. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't natural gas much higher in other areas of the world where there's not an abundance of shale gas?
In silver, it doesn't seem like a similar story is likely to play out...
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I spent the last week reading every post under Fairfax.
Like many investors, I'd previously had an aversion to insurance companies due to a lack of knowledge of the business, and the feeling that the balance sheet was a bit too opaque for me. After reading all the associated posts under Fairfax, I feel like I've gotten stellar education in the business, and it's provided me with a great starting point to begin assessing insurance companies.
Just wanted to say thanks to all the posters on the board.
Warren Buffett: Forget Gold, Buy Stocks
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
Sprott Resource Corp. is probably one of my favorite holdings right now. (So I guess I'm also talking my book too when it comes to Embry.) It'll be interesting to see if the gap to NAV closes more rapidly once the 16 million warrant overhang is done with on the 31st.