I share your view on Greg. At the high end of range of outcomes, he turns out to be a Tim Cook. WEB extols his operational prowess; who am I to argue? Maybe he can optimize operations on the existing businesses and expand the moats. At the mid-range, perhaps Abel won't be able pull the trigger on elephants, so he shifts to returning cash flow to investors through share buybacks and perhaps dividends. At the low-end, he can't stop firing at over-priced elephants, fails to reinvest in the great businesses, and squanders billions in cash. Nothing we've heard about Abel suggests he will fall prey to taking huge swings at stupid targets. And I'd like to believe that Ajit, Ted and Todd will have the sway to prevent Greg from making huge mistakes if I'm wrong about that.
But I can certainly envision a Berkshire where the mid-range is the reality you've portrayed. Indeed, I'm not sure we haven't been living in that world for the past decade, where playing around with small, cheap, borrowed yen on the Japanese stock market is the most exciting transaction pursued. The test will be whether Abel is able to identify the huge opportunities presented in a dislocated market and, much harder, has the courage to bring out the buckets to act on those opportunities aggressively.