Valuebo

[amazonsearch]Behavioural Investing: A Practitioners Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance[/amazonsearch] After reading The Little Book of Behavioral Investing by James Montier, GMO member and author of many great investing books and papers, I thought it was time for something more serious to sharpen my knowledge on the subject. I just ordered this hefty book (700+ pages) at Amazon for the price of 45€ but think it will be worth every penny! Has anyone read it already? Any other recommendations in the field of behavo(u)rial finance/investing? Tom

I'm buying it. I've had book tips from lesser investors that cost me a lot more than 4€. ;) Thanks Moore. I agree with your thesis btw. The only thing I will probably regret is not putting more capital in beaten down financials etc.

No, you are betting that your personal stock picks will reach estimated intrinsic value over time, not the general market. A lot of money was made by value investors in the last decade and a 100% hedge would probably only have been a drag on their performance unless they were lucky buying insurance at the 1500 high and/or had favorable currency-valuation changes. It is a form of timing I doubt many people can do correctly for 10 years. In that regard I think it is odd that you claim others, who are not hedging, are betting on the market's direction.

Anyone else who has problems with Google Finance? It's very slow here and quotations aren't correct half of the time. :-X

http://seekingalpha.com/article/298038-rail-traffic-surges-to-a-3-year-high-reducing-inflation-fears Weirdest recession ever?

I don't think you'll find a lot here but let me post it anyway: http://www.hedgefundletters.com/category/pershing-square/

Tjeez frog03, thanks for the tips! :D If you read something like this, you know they get it. At first sight I like the Spanish one as well. Many thanks! Btw, I feel like I totally hijacked this topic. Sorry Moore! Maybe we can get good stock ideas from the funds listed here?

Hm, interesting to note they have 25% of the assets in Mackenzie Cundill. I really like their value fund, their stock picks align with the average picks on this board. Edit: Both the Mackenzie Cundill Value Fund and Bestinver Bestinfond have a substantial investment in Exor. For Bestinfond it is even a 6% position.

Seems great, thanks. Yes I have been looking at Chou's funds but as an European I can't buy any. :(

A truly sad day indeed. :( Btw, Iphone 4S. Guess it means "Iphone 4 Steve". Or is it by chance? :x

Good subject for another informative and interesting topic Moore, thanks for the link. I have some companies on my watchlist (Vinci, Diageo, Solvay, Inbev, Colruyt, CFE, Danone, France Telecom, Telefonica, Siemens, ...) but I haven't really been looking at them yet, not even sure if they are all cheap. I was looking at the website of the mutual fund and was wondering about the fees (http://evermoreglobal.com/evalue_fees_A.html). Is it correct that they charge 1,67% annually and a sales charge of 5% (or lower) at deposit? Seems expensive, especially with the sales charge and without any track record. The guy has been mentored by Michael Price, that's a plus. Over time I want to put some of my money in a European value mutual fund but I am a total layman in that field. If anyone has recommendations..

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/05/us-yahoo-microsoft-idUSTRE79458Y20111005

Timing is the flavor of the month it seems. Mr. Market at his best today: The same happened in late 2008. Some guys I know were thrilled they didn't buy anything back in late 2008/start of 2009 (I wasn't investing yet) and in July 2009 they were still convinced the market was going to crash. They had nothing to show for their waiting. Btw moore, I for one appreciate your insights and opinions greatly, so keep it up! ;)

Silly Mr. Market. Let's hope the rumors from Europe hold some level of truth. Today even more people reported (on a European forum elsewhere) that they sold their stocks. A lot of them were in biotech, chinese companies, low quality banks and insurers,... The volatility is crazy, SD for example went from a day low of $4.55 to a high of $5.42, that's almost 20%? ???

Also: http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:BAC http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:DELL Every f*cking time. ;D

I am! :) Problem is that it is hard to buy every lower dip when you're already fully invested and have a small portfolio. It won't be long before I start selling BRK for other stuff at this pace.

You too Myth? Timing what the market is going to do? :) I just see very little people buying anything, everyone believes we are going to go lower, people are focused on timing the market and measuring the macro economy, they are buying gold and have no clue what values are out there. I just don't buy their story at this time. Oh and some are fearing some new big war...

I agree Parsad. I'm very glad I shifted 100% of my portfolio to USD, basically it saved me more than 10% with all the rumors in Europe, keeping my portfolio break-even for the year. I am sure we haven't seen the end yet but at the same time I am confident action will be taken over here without extreme consequences for the US and the rest of the world.

I think some people were busy doing research and buying, while some were simply "sighing" after looking at their portfolio value, and some may have started to give up. It will probably get busier on here after the markets close. Cheers! Probably! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR:IND VXO close to 50 again. This just seems plain capitulation to me. Maybe we get it for another few months but it is capitulation nonetheless.

Anyone else buying? The forum seems dead. ??? Just bought some BAC at $5.63 and was hoping to switch some BRK to DELL & MSFT soon (like 2x 5% of my 75% position) but they remain to strong considering the upside and safety I get with BRK. Buybacks in full throttle?

DCG, could you elaborate on your AMZN and AAPL thesis? AMZN is a great business but valuation seems totally out of whack? To me it looks like the perfect candidate to trade sideways for the next 5-10 years. The same might apply to CMG & GMCR but my knowledge is very limited on both companies. I understand you bought them at lower prices but what is keeping you from selling at current prices? Just curious! Where do you see value in AAPL? It is cheap but I am afraid that not much has to happen for it to take a dive over the longer term. Do you believe they will remain first movers and pure innovators over the long haul and how do you think they can keep this culture intact? Or is it more like a short term play? Thanks in advance. :)

I just read the first 120 pages and then, after being suprised by more than one bizar statement, started cross-reading some parts in the book which I was interested about. I was warned by the title but I believe I saw it mentioned here more than once so that is probably the reason I bought it. Some examples of what I read: Fundamental analysis, according to him, is based on estimating future growth, dividend payout and its growth and the risk a company bears. Obviously it is not really hard to rebut the value of such an approach as he does when claiming beating the market is near impossible to do, even for the pro's. To prove his assertion he shows a list of mutual funds beating the market during the internet boom because they took higher risk (which he believes is beta...). Furthermore, according to Malkiel, predicting where market beating fund managers will come from is impossible to guess. Yet he claims to have read The Intelligent Investor, which in newer editions, if my memory serves me right, oddly enough goes into detail showing how many of the market beaters come from the value investing background of Columbia Business school where value investing is learned based on the teachings of Graham & Dodd. Also, he literally advices to buy stocks "with the kind of stories of anticipated growth on which investors can build castles in the air" and more of that crap. Lastly I found it funny that he doesn't want to share exactly how succesful he has been as an investor because it is a peculiarity of the academic world that a professor is not supposed to make money. 8) I haven't read the whole thing so maybe I am exaggerating what he effectively means as it is possible he softens his statements in later chapters. Anyhow, from what I have read so far, I wouldn't recommend this book to anyone, even if they had very little knowledge about investing. There are far better books for increasing your actual knowledge about the subject that sell less bs or at least don't twist facts to "prove" a statement. :-X Maybe there are specific chapters that others here could recommend that actually provide some great insight? It could always be that I accidentally just read the lesser parts of the book...

One, especially when young and getting new capital in on a regular basis, can only hope! 8)

Ding ding, berkshire has probably made over $21-23b in pure investments so far this year and we have another quarter to go. "Buffett sees no bargains", yeah right.

Fairfax probably has one of the most contrarian stock portfolio's out there. The fact that those ideas are so unloved makes it possible to get outsized returns if things do work out ... or sometimes get proven very wrong. I doubt they take a basket approach and count on management too much for such big positions. I'm sure they crunch the numbers just as much as with other investments. They are making really out of whack risk/reward bets that others steer away from because of the uncertainty involved. I'm glad they do and that we can benefit from their expertise because I sure couldn't be that contrarian if I had to do it myself.