Valuebo

Why would you take 15-20% off of all investments (around $155b?) when stock holdings account for not even half of that? Most holdings like KO will probably never be sold which cuts down the number even further. Where hasn't brk outperformed the market over longer periods (in terms of increased BV)? Or are you talking about stock performance? Not sure what the relevance of stock performance could be. He has been seriously outperforming in terms of increasing BV over the last 10 years despite an ever growing capital base. It seems unlikely that this will suddenly disappear as most performance will come from what is already owned today. Furthermore, even if BRK did underperform in a long lasting bull market (which is doubtful in the current situation and overall stock market valuation) the current price would probably turn out to be a bargain, not even considering hot irons such as a hard insurance market and recovery in housing. The way I see it, BRK will : - outperform in a long-term "sideways market" - outperform in a bear market - not underperform terribly in a bull market. I don't need 70% undervaluation for BRK. I'll take that 30-50% any time of the week and let Buffett compound until it gets close enough to IV to sell or until I see companies with better risk/reward that I can be confident about in this market. I bet BRK is being "forced sold" by some, take Berkowitz for example with a fair stake in BRK facing redemptions. Lately, BRK and many other similar companies (LUK, BAM,...) are moving in a crazy trend with days far over -/+5%. I doubt all those stockholders are die-hards. ps : Ignore writing errors etc., it's way over midnight here and I have been studying for over 10 hours... Good night! ;)

Heard about them before and like what they were saying. Already checked back then but as usual they don't let European citizens in their fund. :-[ I don't think it's limited to members here. You don't need to spend much time to figure out favorable risk/reward scenario if they come within your circle of competence. Some people might not want to own these companies rigth now due to finding better risk/reward deals but these companies are very good risk/reward option going forward. I don't think GOOG is that cheap but they might make up for it with their very wide moat. Exactly. All of them are on the lists of Dataroma as well. It almost seems too simple and obvious but I guess sometimes that is all you have to do to get satisfying results. http://www.dataroma.com/m/home.php

Does Prem really think it will happen or does he view it as a worst case scenario and a major fear? There is a big difference between the two. The bet that was made is mainly a hedge to secure the insurance business FFH is in. Wouldn't serious deflation kill combined ratio's when you add the deflation to it? After all, the money you give back is worth more then when you received it, not less as is the case with inflation.

Short term fluctuations in BV don't matter. In fact, a lot of extra value can and will be added in corrections like these which ultimately give you a higher intrinsic value than if no correction would have occured. If you buy companies like BRK at current depressed prices you will win twice in the end. Buffett's annual letter of this year had an interesting part covering brk's goodwill for GEICO : If anything, BRK's stated BV is probably quite conservative compared with the overal market average BV which at times can be viewed as highly questionable. Also, operating businesses account for a larger share of the BV. How is it logical that BV now is much lower than 10 years ago when investments/share were about 90% of BRK's business when it is close to 50/50 now?

Tha, we're back! :) I sure didn't expect this volatility to continue, this is crazy.

Parsad, give me some love too!

9,4% up for BRK. my portfolio up more than 8% today. I am not complaining. (Should I tell Harrylong? ???) Funny thing is last night my broker called because I put in a sell order for FFH before market close to buy more BRK. For some reason my order didn't come through and got cancelled. So I wrote an angry e-mail. This morning my broker called me and was willing to sell FFH at 373,5 cad$ and buy BRK.B at $77,4 I accepted seeing the very green futures at the time (2,8% for the us back then, although we went -1% later). I think I will buy back my FFH's soon at this speed. I will probably even buy back more because this rise in stocks scares me as much as the drops. ::)

Berkshiremystery, you are behind a bit. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR:IND 2,11% yield for 10y T-bills now, the low was 2.03% :D

Are we looking at the same stocks? I am seeing plenty of that "single digit P/E 10" stuff? ??? edit : Nvm, you were talking about Schiller's PE... 50% seems crazy. Many companies are already under 2009's low valuations. People seem to be looking at price ("All that downside!!!!") but don't see value. I don't get it. Do you truly believe we can get to an S&P500 of 560 without any major depression? I am just not seeing it and the market acts like it is a serious recession already and some things will never recover.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=MUTF:FAIRX Fairholme down almost 9% today.

Russell2000 from $86 too $65.12. Must be BRK's chart... Stupid question -> How do they make money on treasury yield that goes down? They just sell their debt?

Lol $66.66. Nearly 30% from its high this year and 50% from its high in 2007. Wasn't the low of the S&P500 666? ;D It must be Berkowitz facing redemptions! (like he would ever have enough influence ::)).

I guess you are right. ;) I believe their stake in DELL is around 15% of the equity portfolio so my exposure is there. My feelings are probably more concering "timing the market" now. I see much more upside potential in DELL (and others) in the short run than I see for FFH. But that is just perception and I could be totally wrong. It's about value anyway.

Nothing wrong with holding 80% FFH but it too is going down 4-5%. Over time you will be ok though.... Nope, got 20% in FFH and 80% in BRK. ;D I didn't expect FFH to take such a big hit and the plan was to switch half to something else, now I am not sure I should. And if this isn't over I definitely don't want out.

14$ stock $4 net in cash $2-2,2 EPS inside ownership of 15% + great management changed business Probably worth a double yes. :) We'll do all right. ;D That's the point! I don't have cash left and am not sure I should sell some FFH for DELL. >:(

14$ stock $4 net in cash $2-2,2 EPS inside ownership of 15% + great management changed business Probably worth a double yes. :)

I called the bottom when BRK hit $66,50 today, that was insane. I just didn't say it out loud, bad luck. ::) --- Easy guys, easy... Stop it! >:(

Vix up almost 50% just a few minutes ago... ::)

Range 66.53 - 71.23 I missed that one... :D

Buffett pissed them off this weekend saying the US downgrade doesn't make sense? :D Or he is holding too much cash, in T-bonds for heaven's sake! :o

I'm having a good laugh here! :D

Meanwhile the redemptions at Fairholme probably multiply by the day...

I had two orders under $70 and one at $71 but I removed those under $70 right before we started falling. Didn't believe we could ever possibly reach that price. ::) Premature accumulation is a bitch. Averaged in at $75,8 so no harm done. At the current market cap cash represents almost 25%. I'll let Buffett, Munger, Combs & co do the thinking.

Only -0,35% now and because of the euro/dollar drop I am actually in the plus for today. Holding 80% in brk is crazy but this sure feels better than having a bunch of cash (while being scared to deploy it) or being invested in things that go down 5%/day. :-X I am thinking of trading in some of my FFH for DELL if FFH stays up enough. Not sure if I should act already...

Huh? US futures are currently down over 2%. They were at -0,5% then I believe. ;) Volatile markets!