gfp
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Posts posted by gfp
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EUROB - EuroBank at 91-91.5 euro cents is my jam today. as they say, this could be their year..
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Yeah - he was already pissed at that point because they did a horrible deal for DiGiorno frozen pizza with Nestle. It was hasty, fully taxed, etc.. That's when he made the TV rounds telling everyone he felt "poorer."
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latest bond offering priced (and previously hedged) -
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I'm sure Buffett would much rather receive calls for him to buy large German family owned companies, rather than sell to one. But maybe it helps again to raise his profile a bit in that group.
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That USG filing is great. They're like, "can we get a commitment from you for your block?" And Warren's like, not for free silly!
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You can sell cash secured puts in an IRA at interactive brokers and others that offer that trading approval. You cannot borrow in an IRA, so you need the cash unencumbered in the account. Which is one reason shorter duration is better. Also the last month or two is when you get the most premium decay or whatever they call it
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For boilermakers trades, it's much better to sell puts with duration of 2 months or less, over and over again. It's not riskier than buying shares, assuming you are interested in buying additional shares and size the trade appropriately. If you get put to, you are happy to own the underlying and if you own a bit more than you intended, you start a covered call selling regimen against the excess shares.
If he's the one that got $1.85 for a 3/29 expiry 190 BRK.B put, he's buying BRK.B shares at $188.15 next week - worst case scenario. It's only risky if you don't want to buy BRK.B shares for $188.15 in a few days time.
Selling LEAPS puts two years out on a single company ties up a lot of capital for a long time for a comparatively small upfront premium. Not a great trade.
Yea, that is WAY to risky of a trade for me...I dont care what premiums you are getting upfront. I havent written puts on BRK in the low $100s awhile ago, but I feel like where we are in the market - you really have no idea what is going to happen. I think if a big vol induced sell-off occurs, that writing both near-dated, and long-dated puts near 1.1x - 1.x2 BV makes a ton of sense. Back in Jan of 17 one can sell the January 2019 BRK.B Put at $137.5 strike, and collect a premium of $2.20 (bid price). So, unless you see BRK.B falling ~37% in the next two years, and are happy to own Berkshire at much lower prices…this could be an interesting way to add synthetically to an already established long position. Of course if the stock rallies, you collect the premium and nothing more...that trade was obviously a home-run.
Sincerely,
VM
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There's a little toggle on top that hides it, you might have pressed it by accident or something. I've done it a few times
What mjohn said. Little arrow in the top right corner of the site. If it's pointing down, you have no search bar, if it's pointing up you do
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That's in the ballpark of what I was assuming. Pretty reasonable if you assume they are making somewhere around $500 million each year, 14-15x earnings for the first chunk. Implied market cap will probably be higher for the next shares that Berkshire buys, likely based on some pre-established formula based on earnings like the Marmon deal. If they had auctioned or shopped the entire thing with a banker it would have gone for more
October 03, 2017, 06:19:03 AM
Could be $8 Billion valuation for the whole thing. Not sure. Sales will be much higher than market cap for a company in that business. It probably makes at least $500 million net each year, but I don't have a source for accurate numbers.October 03, 2017, 06:06:25 AM
It may be 5 or 6 Billion dollars for the entire company. 38% could be $2.25 Billion, the eventual 80% $5 Billion or so. With few other acquisitions this quarter and what I assume to be a quick closing with Byron as the investment banker and one of the sellers, we will probably find out what Berkshire paid in the annual report cash flow statement. -
Another low risk public bet by Warren comes to a close, all brackets busted for the company pool ->
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Berkshire proxy filed yesterday. Standard stuff year to year but with the board changes and appointment of Greg Abel and Ajit Jain to the board, there is some additional discussion of their responsibilities. Next year it would show their salaries and bonus as well. Berkshire goes out of their way to be a model for director compensation and Warren and Charlie both continue to reimburse BRK for personal use of taxes and secretaries, $50k each per year.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312518086050/d526293ddef14a.htm
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I was filled on orders for Charter and Liberty Sirius K today. There ya go
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Back when this happened I ended up switching to Digg Reader. Today they say they are shutting down the RSS reader March 26th... Anyone have a current RSS reader favorite that doesn't cost anything per month? Doesn't seem like it should cost $5 per month to use RSS
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Those ads are custom for you Cardboard... from your browsing patterns
Lot's of Russian and Ukrainian dating ads on the site. The girls look good and I can see why one would be tempted to click 8)
Cardboard
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When Fairfax chose to delist from the NYSE the options and LEAPS on the NYSE shares went away. As far as I know there have never been listed options on the TSX shares, so that was the end of that. There may be some big guys that can get an investment bank to make them an option on FFH but most of us don't qualify for that kind of service
'scuse my Ignorance, why are there no Leaps or even options trading in Fairfax?
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And if you are not a shareholder you can buy meeting credentials directly from BRKA on eBay every year
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It would be nice if Cargill, Bosch and Mars phoned, but I don't know why they would. I don't think the Koch brothers are going to call anytime soon. Unilever would have been fantastic for KHC, but even that deal was only going to be structured to put $20 billion or less in by Berkshire. Not even soaking up the cash generated while they waited for the deal to close..
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Just to update on this - the primary Berkshire 13F contains some shares held by pension funds. The New England Asset Management listings are not the holdings of the pension funds, but some number of shares on BRK's 13F linked below are held by pension funds.
Combining all Apple shares together form both 13Fs (as of 12/31/2017) gives a total of 169.55 million AAPL shares, where Berkshire's annual report shows 166.713209 million AAPL shares (which excludes pension fund holdings). We know that Todd and Ted manage assets for the pension funds of the various subsidiaries, so the difference could be the shares 'owned' by Todd and/or Ted's accounts.
So it makes it difficult to get a 100% accurate spreadsheet going for Berkshire's look through holdings / real time book value. But roughly right is good enough for analyzing BRK. Thanks Dynamic, for sharing your work
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Brief notes from Buffett's CNBC interview this morning -
- wouldn't rule out owning 100% of a major airline
- will spend "probably all day" reading coming GE 10K "very very carefully"
- accounting at GE "has not been a model"
- "we haven't bought any stock at GE"
- might have to change 120% buyback threshold "a little bit" to get shares. specifically mentioned 125-127% of book as examples
- on above, sounded like something he would change if a large block became available at those prices, as before. Not necessarily in advance of a block becoming available. Subsidiary founders passing away, etc...
- Set up a $6 billion liability at Berkshire Hathaway Energy for a portion of the tax windfall from deferred tax liability adjustment, in anticipation of regulators properly deeming that it should ultimately go to the customers
- net buyer of equities for the year, even including the large block sale of PSX stock back to the company.
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you may be right. They already bought their tank car leasing business and stuck it in UTLX. There are pieces BRK would want at the right price but I don't see them buying the whole thing without new management
I think BRK will do some sort of a deal with GE. There are just on many tangents- their insurance business, their leasing business (where cost of capital is important), pension management, equity injection, partnership in business (locomotives?) or a leading stake. The Buffet halo alone will be very valuable for GE, as it was for BofA.
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He was probably commenting specifically on the price of Berkshire at the time of the switch from the zero coupon bond to the very attractively priced BRK.B shares. At that time, 8% was a very conservative projection, which is the only way he would make a public projection for BRK. Berkshire has done well since, but is not at a crazy valuation. With luck, 8-10% is a realistic expectation. But they need to buy something or repurchase shares in size to make it happen.
When WEB says "Fueled by retained earnings, Berkshire’s growth in value was unlikely to be less
than 8% annually, even if we were to experience a so-so economy."
Can I take that as WEB making an approximate low bar assumption that BRK should grow an an annual rate of 8% per year, even in a down economy?
I guess he is not referred directly to share price, but that has been the 2 prong yard stick of late (Book Value and Market Value.)
Can I assume that he thinks that BRK will grow at a low bar rate of 8% per year for the next 5-7 years?
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Ferromex or Kansas City Southern might be possibilities for rails. Don't think CSX deal would pass regulators. They are far from tapped out on US utilities and they will continue to attempt to buy utilities if they are available for sensible prices. They will also likely make huge investments in a nationwide high voltage grid. Maybe AEP gets bought? Or the California utility with wildfire liability problems?
Any of 3G's projects could come into the wholly owned subsidiary fold for Berkshire. Anyone Byron Trott is working with on the private, family owned side (Pilot Flying J was most recent) could come to BRK at any moment. Auto Dealership groups, more realtors, whatever PCP ends up buying..
The literal next company to close is probably MLMIC, the New York mutual medical malpractice liability insurer. But that was already announced.
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He's bummed he can't buy anything big. It will be particularly interesting to see his tone and general condition in Monday morning's CNBC interview.
Waiting for the cycle to turn in your favor sucks for everyone, but it's especially lame when you're almost 90...
seeking alpha pro is getting annoying
in General Discussion
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http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/seekingalpha-turns-evil/msg327744/#msg327744