gfp
-
Posts
4,568 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
8
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by gfp
-
-
27 minutes ago, james22 said:
Funny this thread isn't getting more attention.
But bullish.
I mean, it is a crypto thread on a value investing message board so not super surprising.
-
5 minutes ago, jbwent63 said:
Thank you. It looks like more of the Japanese trading houses have been purchased since the last filing with the Japanese Stock authorities.
Like turning a battleship... I have other filings for them but there isn't a lot of undisclosed equity trading that will make headlines. Most of the selling we knew about from the first three quarters and SEC disclosures. Whatever "secret" buying is going on is being hidden in both Harney Investment Trust (National Indemnity) and Dewey Investment Trust (Columbia Insurance).
-
This happens to me all the time - often in securities that “officially” didn’t trade at all that day. I think there are so many places other than the stock exchange that match orders that these trades get matched - and appear to not count toward official volume. Also an odd lot bid above the current bid will usually not move the posted bid or show up as the best bid. I use this quirk a lot to get shares in difficult to buy stocks where I don’t want to move the bid and just get stepped in front of by a Penny again
-
Well finally somebody lays it out in a way I can understand it
-
1
-
-
Look at Spek with the Johnny Cash picture! Awesome. I never noticed that before. I don't even know how to make my G a photo LOL
I like to try to say "cash" with a thick bruce berkowitz accent but its like Christopher Walken for me - a very hard accent to get right.
-
It's funny because Trump's main criticism of Powell (who he appointed of course) was essentially that he wasn't political enough. Trump wanted low rates, Powell wanted to maintain Fed independence.
There is zero chance of the US going back to a gold-backed currency even if that is something that Donald Trump wanted, which I'm sure he doesn't. Elasticity is a (necessary) feature not a problem.
-
Is this book still available anywhere? I would like to gift one but I don’t want to give my only copy. Selfish, I know
-
26 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:
I thought the Gottesman's stake in Berkshire is worth a lot more than $1 billion. Perhaps already distributed to heirs?
If Sandy had never given any shares away or distributed trust shares to heirs, the Gottesmans would have over $6 Billion of Berkshire stock - over 10,000 A-shares. Over time they have been giving shares away but I'm not sure what the split is between heirs, foundations and what Ruth has left over.
-
This donation has been well covered in the media but I thought this morning's WSJ article about it was better than most at telling the story of Warren, Sandy and Ruth -
-
I hesitate to mention this product, because I don't recommend it and I think the LAST place to get cute and inject risk is your t-bill position - but I did sort of find this fascinating and clever and *so far* it has been working. The idea is an ETF that earns the risk free short term rate (~5.2%) but doesn't generate taxable income like T-bills and if you hold the ETF for over a year an individual investor can turn "t-bill" type interest into a long term capital gain for tax purposes. Plus the tax can be deferred until you sell the ETF. BOXX has tracked BIL, the SPDR 1-3m t-bill ETF almost exactly.
I should point out that if you held this for less than a year and lived in a state with an income tax (t-bill interest isn't subject to state tax) you would probably be worse off after taxes than the t-bill or t-bill etf.
The fund mostly uses box spreads on the S&P500 index - cash settled, non-directional index option spreads, capturing the risk free rate imbedded in the trade (you could do this to synthetically borrow or lend, this fund is lending).
But then, taking advantage of a loophole in ETF rules, they will also occasionally buy a box spread on Booking Holdings, a high price per share stock. They can then use a friendly trader (Wolverine Trading in Chicago) to "buy" just the profitable leg of the Booking Holdings options as an in-kind redemption of the ETF fund. And retain the losing leg of the Booking box spread to book the tax losses. Read the bloomberg article below for the specifics but it's clever and that's why I mention it.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=BOXX&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=9
-
2 minutes ago, glider3834 said:
Last year agm was 20 Apr - this year 11 Apr - i wonder if that affects timing of release?
Who knows. Some CEOs are just better at turning in their homework in a timely fashion. The Boston Omaha boys send in their letter whenever they damn well feel like it.
-
2 hours ago, treasurehunt said:
Also, premiums earned for 2023: Geico - 39,264 & Progressive - 58,664.
Stunning, considering that premiums earned were pretty even as recently as 2019.
It's been great - at $40-50 Billion market cap Progressive was one of those companies you could have held an auction on a desert island and made money. At $110 Billion I'm not so sure but these folks are very good at what they do.
-
@Viking if you are really a stickler for detail and this post is as of end of February, the Orla mining percentage ownership is low as well
https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-announces-acquisition-of-additional-orla-shares-3/
-
So to Dinar's and ValueArb's points above - Am I to understand that your argument is that fewer people working (because they don't have to and they are sitting on welfare) is contributing to lower wages for the low income workers we are discussing? Fewer low-skill laborers seeking work -> Lower wages? Is that what you two believe?
-
6 minutes ago, newtovalue said:
Anyone know when the annual report and letter comes out?
Last year it was published March 10th. (a Friday after the close)
-
7 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:
Thanks. Curious why do you think it opens up the question if it’s a Buffett holding?
also, the NAI filing show the shares were bought in 3/9/2022, when the stock was at $34. Shouldn’t Buffett sells these first because they are quite high cost. Buffett’s first purchase was in Q1 2022. And $34 was hear the high range during that quarter. Unless it’s actually being held by both WEB and T.T.?
Ah yes I see what you mean. I didn't notice that there were shares owned inside National Indemnity. You confused me with that NAI reference because I think of NAI as National Amusements not National Indemnity. I don't think it indicates Buffett investment or otherwise - I thought at the point of your earlier post that there was no PARA inside National Indemnity and if that indicated it's in a pension fund or something then that would point to a non-Buffett manager (T&T). If I notice PARA being sold in another filing I will post it. There are quite a few different reporting insurance subsidiaries within Berkshire. It wasn't sold in Columbia or Gen Re that I have seen so far.
-
These are the stocks sold within General Re during the year (General Re is where most of the 'not-on-the-13F' european equities live)
edit: that's really blurry. They sold Chevron, HP, USB, Allianz, Munich Re, BASF and Nestle. The European stuff was sold earlier in the year
-
11 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:
Thanks Gfp. So it seems to me Buffett didn’t sell any Para from NAI’s portfolio ? He must have sold it from other accounts?
That seems to be the case, which opens up the question of whether Paramount is a Buffett holding at all. I will check their last PARA filing to see if there is any information on where it is held within BRK.
-
Attached is the National Indemnity year end NAIC filing that includes investments. There are quite a few files - I am still going through them. I will post a few more later today
(FWIW, they were selling AAPL for $192.75 / share on December 27th so it could have been primarily tax related - if for some reason it "made sense" to take a gain on AAPL for the 2023 tax year). edit: they were also selling AAPL the day before in Columbia Insurance at $193.79 / share. So decent prices
-
12 hours ago, hasilp89 said:
The guy who pays for obscure insurance filings and shares them. Also moonlights as the illiterate guy who can’t do math.
(bad joke, my way of saying I appreciate you @gfp)
Aww man, now I gotta shut down my "secrets of the NAIC" call buying fund! this guy ruined it for everyone. f*cking harvard...
-
22 minutes ago, rkbabang said:
Well, not all fast food workers in California will be making $20/hr, only the ones that work for companies with no political pull.
"When fast food restaurants across California have to start paying workers $20 per hour on April 1, one major chain will be exempted from the mandate—and it just so happens to have a connection to a longtime friend and donor to Gov. Gavin Newsom."
https://reason.com/2024/02/28/why-is-panera-exempted-from-californias-new-minimum-wage-law/
Oh wow. So are we going to see a bunch of El Pollo Loco loaf of bread and Jack in the Box loaf of bread menu items in April?
-
Am I wrong that most people are making at least $15 per hour these days? I know that is still near impossible to live on, but it seems like through the pandemic even restaurant dishwashers were making at least $15 / hour. California's $20 minimum wage for fast food workers is going into effect in a month.
-
12 minutes ago, jbwent63 said:
I apologize for not remembering who was posting the NICO regulatory filings, but if they would be so kind as to do so for year end it would be much appreciated. Especially the investment section. Thanks in advance.
Cheers - I will post them but they are not out yet. The Annual filings take a bit longer to be published. I've seen quarterly filings actually come out before a company's 10Q before (which must be a no-no) - but never for a BRK sub.
edit: if you are hoping to learn the "secret" financial security you will probably be out of luck (same as Q3) because it is hidden inside the Harney Investment Trust, Warren's go-to disclosure obscurer (is that a word?)
-
@Cigarbutt In the middle charts, "money growth and inflation," what are they plotting as "money growth?" It looks like the red line is "inflation." How are they defining "money growth?"
Buffett/Berkshire - general news
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
Well Charlie also had this quote on Warren's investments in Japan, "It was like having God just opening a chest and just pouring money into it."
I'm not even sure I can calculate the return on investment because the equity sliver was so small, the carry was so positive and the debt used to float the purchases and hedge the currency was so profitable. If we pencil in that we used insurance float for the tiny "equity" sliver then I guess this is as close to warren giving a master class on free money as we will get.
h/t kingswell newsletter for the chart