doc75

My home & auto policy went up 17%. (Canada)

Frankly it seems you're looking for an argument or still thinking I'm saying something I'm not. The cash to cap ratio is clearly relevant in the context of an SIB. It reflects their buyback capacity --- what fraction of the shares could (theoretically) be repurchased at today's price. It's not all or nothing. For instance they could manage a 20% tender at a price that might be pretty enticing for series 5 folks who were converted at $2. I'm not saying they're going to do it, but obviously if the cash/cap ratio were 1:100 then this wouldn't even be an academic possibility. Hence relevant. Note that I'm saying nothing about the wisdom or likelihood of them actually doing an SIB. I think it most likely that they do not launch a large buyback but rather try to leverage the cash pile toward actually generating some money/fees. It's clear from recent conference calls that they're well aware of their cash needs and also the softness of their other asset values.

What's your point? Just reporting the facts, ma'am. There is some possibility that an SIB for the common is in the works, so the relative sizes of the cash pile and market cap is of interest. That might have some relevance if the company had no debt or prefs, and didn’t burn cash. But... You don't think the cash to market cap ratio is even relevant when the company has suggested it is contemplating a SIB and is now sitting on enough $ to safely take a substantial bite? That's a very high bar for relevance. For what it's worth I don't expect they'll do a SIB for the common any time soon unless shares crater in a market panic. My guess is that they want to recycle the $ into new investments alongside some 3rd party capital.

What's your point? Just reporting the facts, ma'am. There is some possibility that an SIB for the common is in the works, so the relative sizes of the cash pile and market cap is of interest.

The discounted warrants brought in $60m cash. Approximately 1/3 of warrants remain outstanding. They now have $140m cash at corporate, pretty much exactly the market cap at today's price. ---------------------------- TORONTO, Oct. 28, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Dundee Corporation (TSX: DC.A) (“Dundee” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the successful completion of its early warrant exercise program, as described in the press release dated October 20, 2020. A total of 7,819,900 unlisted warrants (“Warrants”) to acquire shares of Dundee Precious Metals Inc. (“Dundee Precious”) have been exercised to-date, of which 7,452,400 Warrants were exercised at the discounted exercise price of $7.60, providing aggregate proceeds of $59,578,240 to Dundee. A total of 4,130,100 Warrants remain issued and outstanding. With these proceeds from the early warrant exercise program, the Company currently has approximately $140 million in cash at the corporate level. It is anticipated that the Company will not have taxes payable in connection with the proceeds of exercised Warrants. “The receipt of these funds improves our financial position, strengthens our balance sheet and enhances our strategic flexibility,” said Jonathan Goodman, President and CEO. “With today’s economic, geopolitical and market uncertainty including the ongoing effects of the COVID – 19 pandemic, our management team and board of directors support this prudent step,” said Bob Sellars, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The remaining outstanding Warrants may be exercised prior to expiration on May 13, 2021, at the original exercise price of $8.00, subject to adjustment in accordance with the provisions of the warrant indenture between Dundee Resources Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Dundee and Computershare Trust Company of Canada, dated May 13, 2020, as amended by the First Amending Agreement dated October 20, 2020 (the “Warrant Indenture”).

Unexpected news (see below). Dundee should have over $100m cash even after the pref B buyout. The DPM warrants have a strike of $8 and expire in May 2021. DPM is currently trading just shy of $10 and has held over $8.50 since July. So why the rush to lower the strike to $7.60? I would've thought many warrant holders already exercised and cashed-out when DPM broke $10, but I guess not. - de-risking due to political uncertainty viz. US election? price of gold impact? - tax impacts? - extra capital to launch a SIB for the remaining B prefs / D prefs / common? The recent AGM presentation does mention return of excess capital via SIB/NCIB/Dividend "when appropriate": http://dundeecorp.com/pdf/DC%202020%20AGM%20presentation%20FINAL.pdf There's roughly $80m in preferred remaining ($30m B and $50m D) and the market cap is around $140m. They'll have at least $120m in cash by end of October. It'll be interesting to see what they do. Maybe they just want maximum flexibility into end-of-year, given the potential for market shocks. ------------------------ Dundee Corporation Announces Temporary Discount Exercise Price for Its Warrants Issued to Purchase Shares of Dundee Precious Metals Inc. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR RELEASE PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION OR DISSEMINATION, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES. TORONTO, Oct. 20, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Dundee Corporation (TSX: DC.A) (“Dundee”) announces notice to holders of the warrants (“Warrants”) to acquire shares of Dundee Precious Metals Inc. (“Dundee Precious”) issued in connection with the secondary sale of shares of Dundee Precious on May 13 th , 2020, an opportunity to exercise their Warrants at the discount exercise price of $7.60 during the period specified below. Any warrant holder may elect to exercise their Warrants at the discounted exercise price of $7.60 during the period commencing on October 20, 2020 and ending at the prescribed time on October 27, 2020 (the “Discounted Exercise Expiry Time”). Warrants exercised after the Discounted Exercise Expiry Time and prior to expiration on May 13, 2021 may be exercised at the original exercise price of $8.00, subject to adjustment in accordance with the provisions of the warrant indenture between Dundee Resources Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Dundee and Computershare Trust Company of Canada, dated May 13, 2020, as amended by the First Amending Agreement dated October 20, 2020 (the “Warrant Indenture”). Support F rom Existing Holders Dundee has secured the commitment of institutional investors, holding approximately 25% of the currently issued and outstanding Warrants to exercise their Warrants on or prior to the Discounted Exercise Expiry Time at the discounted exercise price of $7.60 for total consideration of approximately $22.4 million. Exercise Details & Benefits In accordance with the terms of the Warrant Indenture, Dundee has provided the registered holder of warrants with notice of the discount exercise price. Dundee’s Board of Directors has approved the discount exercise price applicable to the warrants during the period outlined above. Dundee intends to issue a press release on October 28, 2020 confirming the total consideration received for warrants exercised during the early exercise period. “Our offer to accelerate the exercise of the Dundee Precious warrants provides us with an opportunity to improve our financial position, strengthen our balance sheet and enhance our strategic flexibility in a timely manner,” said Jonathan Goodman, President and CEO. “In today’s environment of continued macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, which is exacerbated by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, our management team and board of directors believe this is a prudent measure to take at this time.”

... and then Ozzy bit the head off of a bat.

Can you expand on how deaths are being covered up? It's my understanding that individual States are responsible for reporting deaths to the CDC. We live in alternative world these days. ::) What I heard from a friend who is a San Diego ER doctor said his friend is an ER doctor in NY and that they were forced to write death cause to be COVID, for pretty much any death, even including gun shot death. The death number is inflated so the NY state can get more federal funding for this. Wow. "Even including gun shot death" takes this to a whole new level! https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/social-media-posts-make-baseless-claim-on-covid-19-death-toll/

Another trickle of news regarding TauRx: http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200615000885 Here's an mazing stat from the article: "The clinical trial failure rate for Alzheimer’s disease treatments is said to be 99.6 percent. Between 2002 and 2012, among 413 drugs that set out to treat the disease, only Namenda had been given the green light to proceed with clinical tests."

Some TauRx news today: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/taurx-reveals-study-results-that-offers-new-hope-for-treatment-of-patients-with-dementia-882883302.html Really hope they can sell this before too long.

This tends to be my thinking, too. Behavioural patterns are different for the moment but I expect they'll return to usual in time. I wonder to what extent companies will discover through this WFH experience that many of their office jobs could be readily outsourced, or are actually redundant in the first place.

Why do you guess common buyback over prefs? I'd imagine an SIB for the prefs before a common buyback, given that it decreases cash outlay going forward. I *hope* something is in the works with respect to their capital structure. I'm expecting that COVID is also forcing them to put more capital into some of their bigger operating businesses. The preferred shares are permanent capital with no covenants and a reasonable rate. I wouldn't SIB them, maybe pick them off a little by little. The common however - that I would SIB a boatload - say $75 million buyback at $1.50 per share? That could retire half the shares outstanding. Yes, sorry, my question was about what Dundee *would* do (given that they want to continue extracting their salaries and rebuild the empire), not what they should do to maximize shareholder equity. :) Agreed that the prefs are permanent capital. I wouldn't expect them to repurchase near par. But they do continue to drain liquidity so I could see them making an SIB somewhere in the 7-8% yield range. I'll be both pleased and surprised if they commit to a large-scale commons buyback.

Why do you guess common buyback over prefs? I'd imagine an SIB for the prefs before a common buyback, given that it decreases cash outlay going forward. I *hope* something is in the works with respect to their capital structure. I'm expecting that COVID is also forcing them to put more capital into some of their bigger operating businesses.

Management change happened approx. 2 years ago. As Petec says, the NAV has objectively been hardening. The risk lies in their pivot back toward the resource sector and their ultimate reliance on commodity prices.

That - and the fact that DPM is highly volatile. It's been on 3 tears this year and gave back most (but not all) of the first two. Given Dundee seems to have no intention of selling or spinning DPM, it's reasonable that the DC.A share price doesn't immediately reflect what may be a temporary revaluation of DPM*. *I happen to think it will end up being a permanent revaluation, I'm just trying to explain why it might actually be perfectly rational for the market not to immediately reflect DPM's bounce in DC.A's share price. Yes, I'm sure you're correct to a large extent. I wouldn't expect DC.A to go by 0.55 due to a 0.55 addition to NAV from a volatile holding. But there has been essentially no movement in DC.A even as DPM advances on good operating news (as opposed to a bump in commodity price). Interesting times. Or course there's also the large overhang from the preferred conversion.

DPM has been on a tear recently. At the current DPM price ($6.00), the value of Dundee's investment has increased by approx $55M over end of Q3, or roughly $0.55 per DC.A share. Taking the DPM stake alone and subtracting the prefs gives a NAV of $0.90 per DC.A share. The current price of DC.A really speaks to their reputation and perceived quality of other assets.

Dundee's holding in TauRX... At September 30, 2019, the Corporation held an approximate 4% interest in TauRx. The Corporation has determined that the fair value of its investment at September 30, 2019 was $41.1 million. In determining the fair value of its interest, the Corporation applied a value per share of US$30.60, the equivalent of a 50% discount to the volume-weighted average price of shares issued from treasury during 2015 and 2016. Just to be clear, I'm only sharing the news. I think TauRX is an eventual zero and I hope they'll be able to sell it into some renewed optimism for this current Phase 3. TauRX has a history of overstating and hyping the outcomes of their previous trials, so I think there's little reason to put much faith in this latest company PR. From what I've read, most experts think they're full of sh*t. See the following overview: https://www.alzforum.org/news/conference-coverage/tau-inhibitor-fails-again-subgroup-analysis-irks-clinicians-ctad You don't even have to be an expert to notice their statistical comparisons are highly suspect. Fingers crossed for a sale anywhere close to the carrying value. Those 2015/2016 shares were issued prior to the first Phase 3's missing their primary endpoints.

Some recent TauRX news: https://www.biospace.com/article/new-study-by-taurx-shows-a-minimum-dose-of-hydromethylthionine-could-slow-cognitive-decline-and-brain-atrophy-in-mild-to-moderate-alzheimer-s-disease/

I'm contemplating taking some steps toward considering the option of potentially purchasing some more shares based on this news. What's with the over-hedged language? It's seriously taken them an entire quarter to get to this point?

I think it would make more sense for them to buy back preferred shares. That would be immediately cash flow positive in a way that a common stock buyback would not be. Reducing cash outflow and maintaining a strong balance sheet are likely higher priorities than a stock buyback for management IMO. Their strategy of investing in junior mining companies is long term and won't produce cash in the short or medium term, so they will have to be particularly careful with their cash. I'm fairly convinced there was never any strong intention of a buyback program. Those were likely just words to placate substantial series E holders prior to the deal, perhaps also with the thought of establishing some type of floor for the common post-conversion (i.e. brokers wouldn't want to advise new equity holders to dump into an illiquid market and miss the supposed buyback). The company bleeds cash and will continue to do so for quite some time. The more capital they retain, the greater the margin of safety for their salaries.

Down 7.5% on a multiple of the usual volume. I'd expect Monday to be down as well as retail holders notice the new shares on the weekend. With all the unwanted shares now on the market, I think this will just keep drifting down unless/until there is some truly catalytic positive news (UHIC success being the most likely in the near-to-mid term). A sale of BG or any other remaining noncore assets won't do it, IMO.

I noticed that, too. At some point they were treating Android Industries as a non-core asset, and now it's not, so things like this might explain some of the difference, but certainly not all. As expected, they're not getting much for their assets. I have no idea how they came up with a $100m+ figure in the first place. That always seemed pie-in-the-sky. To be frank they really don't seem to know much about many of their holdings. It's pretty clear they have no visibility into TauRx, Red Leaf, or UHIC, for instance, or Union Group before that. They're just crossing their fingers like the rest of us.

I can't remember the wording but it seemed to me that their language on the call made it pretty certain the new Parq partner is private. I feel pretty strongly now that the series 2 & 3 dividends should not be taken for granted. They've cut G&A, but they're still burning through plenty of cash and there's no signs they'll be generating any in the next few years. They're not going to sell DPM to pay dividends. After they sell off the crap assets, I think it would be an easy decision for them to preserve liquidity (and their salaries) by turning off the divvies. After listening to the call, I'm also very skeptical of any type of meaningful issuer bid materializing. They're very noncommittal and it sounds like they won't even make a decision until after getting a decision on their outstanding CRA issue.

I haven't seen any PR from Dundee themselves, but it appears they've sold the Sotheby's franchise rights, which is the primary asset of Dundee 360: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/peerage-realty-partners-enters-into-agreement-to-acquire-sotheby-s-international-realty-canada-from-an-affiliate-of-dundee-corporation-841978915.html They recorded an $8m impairment on this asset last quarter so I would expect the transaction to be valued at approximately book. The entirety of Dundee 360 was carried at a NAV of about $15m as of Dec 31.

Dundee will release Q1 results after market close on Friday. The optimist in me hopes they have chosen a Friday release to ensure they can announce the Parq transaction. The pessimist in me has followed Dundee for a while and knows better than to trust the optimist! In other news, a whole boatload of shares hit the market next week. It'll be interesting to see what they do regarding a repurchase plan, if anything. (Really not sure they have the liquidity to do much.)