berkshiremystery

Unbelievable what our strange aussie bird chirps :o I put it in extra small letters so Sanjeev don't have to read it ::) ... just teasing him... ;) I think it will make Buffett a fortune.

I'm not sure. It depends on the specific provisions of Berkshire's preferreds. Cumulative preferreds can't be used as Tier 1 capital, now, unless they meet certain standards, like the ability to defer payments for some period. But Basel III phases in some new test to determine how preferreds are counted as capital. It also takes away some of the seniority benefits. I'd be everything I own that BRK's preferreds are as senior/secure as TruPS and don't count towards Tier 1 after 1/1/13. This transaction did not add any capital. Why would warren buy a non-cumulative preferred? Those are sucker investments. Well, they might be sucker investment for most investors, but he got some good poison pill. If you haven't read the details of the transaction. If BAC can’t pay its 6% annual dividends to BRK, they will accrue at a rate of 8%, and BAC will be barred from share buybacks or dividends to other shareholders. Essentially, no other shareholders will receive dividends if BAC doesn’t pay Buffett his $300 million a year. Isn't that an incentive for him to hold the preferreds. (On a footnote: He had agreed not to increase his BAC common holding above the 14.9% mark, if he would ever want to purchase more common stock.)

I am sorry to disappoint, but Buffett sparked the deal to invest in BAC in the bathtub on Wednesday morning. His only close advisor may have been a bath duck & a marble ::) ;D Don't you all remember in Alice Schroeder's book, the one chapter that is titled “The Bathtub Steeplechase.” As a child, Warren would play a game with his sisters in which they would roll marbles down the side of a bathtub filled with water. The marbles, each of which was given a name, were rolled simultaneously into the water, and the first to hit the stopper won the race.

Warren's BAC investment comes with a tax break. BRK gets $300 million in dividends each year on his preferred. Dividends bring a major tax advantage: the dividends-received deduction. It allows Berkshire to exclude 70% of the interest they’re paid when calculating taxes, leaving them with a 10.5% effective tax rate.

I think the stock will be at least as high as $17 by expiration of those 2013 calls. Nearly 7x returns. I didn't go "all in" on the calls, if it blow up 100% I've only destroyed 5% of my fingers -- which I would expect to recover from the warrants. I have the same number of warrants in AIG as I do in BAC. I hope AIG gets their $10b back! That gain in book value alone would repay me for the cost of my BAC warrants. Congrats Eric for the perfect pitch, your calls might lead to an early retirement. But i would rather set up a personal hedge fund.... if I would be you. ;D I don't know much though regarding real fundamental analysis. I just (think I) know who does, and then piggyback on them when I firmly grasp the gist of it. It would be sort of fraudulent in a way to invest the money of others given my technique. I can always spend my time learning though -- perhaps a formal course of study like a CFA type thing. The risk though is then I'd start making huge mistakes believing that being "certified" has made me smart enough to make my own decisions. I know, just harvest the rewards yourself. ;) Anyway,... you might be all gawking at my idea, that Sanjeev should install on our boards here some "RecordedFuture.com" script !!!!! He once ask us days ago, about some wild ideas how he could perfect the forum. So I come up with some odd ideas. But don't take me serious, I just throw here some wild ideas for public debate, how Eric might grasp the future gist . ;D Current users of RecordedFuture are they guys at Goldman Sachs or the C.I.A. :) RecordedFuture is a cutting-edge company funded by Google, Inc. and the C.I.A.'s venture capital firm "In-Q-Tel". They developed the world's first Temporal Analytics Engine. A new predictive analysis tool that allows you to visualize the future, past or present using computer algorithms that scan linguistically chatter in Wall Street news releases, on Facebook and in financial boards for hidden patterns. It's the same way like the FBI hunted for years the Unabomber through linguistic patterns in university research papers. The Recorded Future team includes similar guys like Jim Simons people at RecTec, they are computer scientists, statisticians, linguists, technical business people with deep domain expertise in areas such as intelligence and quantitative finance. They sort of try to create a linguistic Kelly criterion for patterns that swing around certain themes or key words (like the Google page rank algorithms) and they predict the mathematical future trends, the same way like NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) in their hurrican maps --> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152235.shtml?tswind120#contents. I posted the link just as an example. RecordedFuture.com https://www.recordedfuture.com/ Pricing and plans for RecordedFuture are less expensive than a Bloomberg https://www.recordedfuture.com/pricing-and-plans.html In-Q-Tel. Accelerating Innovation for the Intelligence Community http://www.iqt.org/ In-Q-Tel @ Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In-Q-Tel ------------------------------------------------ Google Teams Up With CIA to Fund "Recorded Future" Startup Monitoring Public 2010-07-30 video 10:43min http://cdn.pearltrees.com/s/preview/index?urlId=13683474 ------------------------------------------------ Welcome To Recorded Future http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nG97B7tiUQg Social Network Analysis - Obama In The Media http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5etSid8G6EU& Terrorism Analysis http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImhVpC-G_jg Time-laps of Tunisian Government Collapse http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyi5KC-eid8 Future Friday - Recent Verizon iPhone Rumors http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAL1-jdgOL4 Future Friday: Nokia Layoffs and Product Outlook http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ko752zSi0Ac

I think the stock will be at least as high as $17 by expiration of those 2013 calls. Nearly 7x returns. I didn't go "all in" on the calls, if it blow up 100% I've only destroyed 5% of my fingers -- which I would expect to recover from the warrants. I have the same number of warrants in AIG as I do in BAC. I hope AIG gets their $10b back! That gain in book value alone would repay me for the cost of my BAC warrants. Congrats Eric for the perfect pitch, your calls might lead to an early retirement. But i would rather set up a personal hedge fund.... if I would be you. ;D

AIG, but he would not control the float and does he really want more financials? When he hired the new PM he said no more banks ... I wonder what changed his mind ;) See guys I was so convinced in BAC over the last year, that I had even converted some part of my beloved BRK to BAC in my personal account. I had never done or sold a single Berkshire in all my life. Hahahaha that was a damn conviction. My mind played Darwinian BAC against Berkshire. Yes, I know for a 100 storm, Berkshire is Fort Knox, but I considered BAC so much financially stronger compared with the BAC in 2008, that with a current market value of about 1/3 book it is even a bigger medium term play then BRK itself, so I had told myself why not buck up the truck with my conviction and play Darwinian BAC vs Berkshire. ;)

Sanjeev,... these days remind me of 2003 and FFH, the worse the news, the greater a bargain BAC becomes. ;) I guess the smart money is always down after purchasing, this doesn't worry me, personally. IMHO, at almost 1/3 of book value (~$20 something book, currently trading around $7), BAC represents one of the biggest undervalued long term treasures of all the big cap companies. I give a thumbs up to all of us that are long BAC ;D AIG sues BofA for $10 billion alleging "massive fraud" On Monday August 8, 2011, 10:16 am EDT http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AIG-sues-BofA-for-10-billion-rb-2884649640.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=[/ Unbelievable friggin'. :P The first time I came back here to the boards 3 weeks ago, after a long abstinence since last spring, I told you all that BAC is the biggest undervalued long term treasures of all the big cap companies, at almost 1/3 of book value. We averaged all the way down, as it was our only major investment recently, after we did strike on LUK last year. We even bought in todays market in the morning lows more BAC. Where else could Buffett place his big elephant hunting gun. ;D

I'm pretty sure that I might recall in my mind that Charlie used ML as his custodian for his BRK shares years ago. But I'm don't know currently if he still uses them. He occasionally sells shares or gives to charity. Last November he disposed almost $750 million of the BRK stock following his wife’s death earlier that year. Years ago I had seen on http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=BRK/A&selected=BRK/A that these trades have been executed at ML, his then custodian for his BRK stake. Well I may be outdated with that information, because I haven't found any new information or data. Please correct me if I'm wrong about Charlie's custodian. Cheers!

Well, I totally agree with you. I could also recommend the Forbes issue from January 22, 1996, with the cover story of Charlie Munger, one of the best issues ever. I personally own it, like a shrine: Charlie talks there that plumbers are useful, investment mangers and Wall Streeters aren't. ;) He says that if security trading in America were to go down by 80%, the civilization would work better. And if he were God, he would change the tax rules so it would go down by 80%, in fact by more than 80%. Charlie even once did propose a 100% tax on short term capital gains taken in less than a year, but I guess this would never be popular for the folks like SAC et al. Anyway he adds that on a net basis the whole investment management business together gives NO value added to all stock portofolio owners combined. That isn't true for plumbing and it isn't true of medicine. Warren agrees with him 100%. They would both shake their heads at the brains that have been going into money management. What a waste of talent. Beating the market averages, after paying substantial costs and fees, is an against-the-odds game, yet a few people can do it, particulary those who view it as a game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. But personally i prefer people that do it the old fashion way and use their brains as their main computers, read some Value Line and occasionally watch their Bloombergs. LOL -- SAC and the other Quants put too much input, computer wise and manpower wise, in the same output that the early Buffetters, i.e. the Graham and Doddsviller's of ther early 1960's and 70's would had achieved with just a one man operation. The battle between the HFT's and the slow moving value guys, is like in Star Wars, where Obi Wan Kenobi tries to teach Luke Skywalker just to use old fashioned tools, like a simple lightsaber instead of fancy weaponry. Nanoquant servers bondaged to exchange servers to squeeze a bit vs Graham & Doddsviller's only studying value gravity in their Value Line manuals. Well, but don't be bewildered, the one guy, I highly admire, maybe he is the BlackSwan in this Quant field is Jim Simons with his "RenTec" organization, a guy with decades of outstanding results, integrity, and by incorporating the research done by Elwyn Berlekamp (i.e: Axcom), Claude Shannon, John Kelly and Ed Thorp. You might be gawking, if I may describe Renaissance, as the virtually Buffett & Munger pressed into a bit. --- Prof. William T. Ziemba has done extensive research on Rectec's performance. I might be proven wrong after a 100 year storm, but currently they have tremendously weathered all markets. Time will tell. But Simons also has been hunted when his algorithm models used to buy and sell stocks were overwhelmed by securities' price swings. Renaissance had to adapt it's algorithms to sell positions, short-circuiting statistical models based on the relationships among securities. I would personally refer to this process to Robert Axelrod's book "The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration". Lucky Us!... regardless of balance sheet size, we all are prevented by investing with Jim, because his main fund is limited to employees only and is closed to outside investors. I personally think, that this is good so, that we are prevented from nibble at his lusty apple. We are forced to use the old fashioned way our brains. And, last but not least, one of the other so called HFT's in particular I have there my eye on a certain guy in Stamford, CT,... well, we all at this forum here know his confusing shenanigans. Like DeepCapture.com had reported in "Hedge Funds Reading Tomorrow’s Headlines Today", that certain hedge funds received advance copies, and traded ahead of bogus financial research produced by Morgan Keegan, a supposedly --independent-- research shop that was, in fact, working for those same hedge funds. That's a recursive déjà vu. . Terrance Odean, a behavioral economist & psychologist, and a professor of banking and finance at Berkeley, is worldwide the uttermost authority in studies of HFT. He wrote a masterpiece of research paper that should prevent the rational investor to bite in a lusty apple of hyperactiv trading styles. Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/Papers%20current%20versions/Individual_Investor_Performance_Final.pdf Terrance Odean @ Berkeley EDU http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/ Research Papers http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/Current%20Research.htm Terrance Odeon - Slide Show (2011) http://www.scribd.com/doc/46874919/Terrance-Odean Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investorshttp://www.moneyweek.com/~/media/MoneyWeek/2009/090601/MAS42_1-investor-perf.ashx?w=450&h=356&as=1

Me neither, also took a nap. Anyway,... I enjoy the new layout design.

Here's a YouTube viceo clip with Jackie Chiesa, the general manager of the Toronto store. She talks about their sponsorship of the race cars and the strength of bone china teacups. NewCa.com: 2011 IndyCar Parked on Bone China Teacups 2011-06-16 ------- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmPK1lkOINU http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3X8wPMvns0 ---------------------- Some web site estimates the revenues of $18,563,120 for William Ashley and with an estimated 150 employees. I would treat these numbers with real caution, because we don't have a real view inside their balance and income sheets. ::) Anyway its a neat small acquisition for Prem and his folks. http://www.manta.com/coms2/dnbcompany_lsgml6

Well,... I personally don't own any gold holdings, so from a layman point of view I would want to look on some visualized facts (like equity investors, i.e. Buffett or Watsa would do for the stock market with the ratio of stock market capitalization vs Nominal GDP in the U.S. -- Prem always provided these charts/data from Ned David Research in the Fairfax AGM slide presentations). ::) hmm,... i was just searching on google images some comparable stuff for gold: Gold Inflation Adjusted Gold reaches its inflation adjusted high in Asian trading as Chinese buyers step in 2011-08-0x http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold-reaches-its-inflation-adjusted.html http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-atMjsqkF8Tc/TkDaubkgK_I/AAAAAAAAAkI/7rB7fQc7A0I/s1600/Inflation+adjusted+gold+8-9-2011.PNG ------- older chart http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/1/7/cngold106big.gif ------- http://pragcap.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/ann.jpg ------- http://static.safehaven.com/authors/casey/20558_d2.png ------- 200 Year Dow/Gold Ratio: http://historysquared.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/clip_image0022.png -------- http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_F9F6y3DEr0E/Swf8VbqduzI/AAAAAAAAERE/JVeHrVkXtZY/s1600/Dow+Gold+Ratio+112009.jpg -------- Dow Jones Index vs Dow/Gold Ratio: http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/6/6/426795-124430753746441-Faisal-Humayun.JPG

Yup,... guys, they mostly reduced their stake in SD by over 75% Fairfax Fin'l Hldgs. Ltd. - @ Nasdaq.com Portfolio as of 2011-06-30 http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0000915191&HolderName=FAIRFAX+FINANCIAL+HOLDINGS+LTD%2F+CAN http://fundville.com/fund/932/FAIRFAX-FINANCIAL-HOLDINGS-LTD--CAN Fairfax position in SD the following table illustrates their position http://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?oc=915191&tc=7 2011-07-18 ---> 20,084,600 shares of SD http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101618/000120919111040345/xslF345X03/c20187_4x0.xml 2011-07-22 ---> 4,624,000 shares of SD http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000120919111040824/xslF345X03/c20333_4x0.xml

I also played a little the sleuth dog again. :D It seems that last February Loudon McLean Owen, through his company, McLean Watson Investments Ltd., bought a controlling stake in William Ashley Ltd. So they are probably the sellers of this controlling stake to Fairfax. Cheers ! the February 2011 article from newswire: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/February2011/15/c3121.html article from the Globe & Mail: Iconic Toronto retailer William Ashley acquired by McLean Watson 2011-02-15 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/iconic-toronto-retailer-william-ashley-acquired-by-mclean-watson/article1909070/ McLean Watson Investments Ltd http://www.mcleanwatson.com/index.html Loudon McLean Owen http://www.mcleanwatson.com/t_owen_loudon.html

An even longer article from the Globe & Mail about Tillie Abrams and William Ashley China: http://groups.google.com/group/alt.obituaries/browse_thread/thread/016b0bffce58b574

William Ashley also had a sort of Mrs. B, her name was Tillie Abrams. She unfortunately died last year at the old age of 98. Abrams was born in Poland and came to Canada as an infant. The retail business was in her blood. Her father owned a paint and wallpaper business, where she worked after school starting at the age of 13. Her son, Alan Stark, is still active in William Ashley China, and her grandson, Dean Stark, is the CEO. The eldest son, Brian Stark, 73, is a Toronto lawyer. read the full article: Tillie Abrams was the woman behind William Ashley 2010-05-20 http://www.thestar.com/living/article/811832--tillie-abrams-was-the-woman-behind-william-ashley?bn=1 http://media.thestar.topscms.com/images/df/23/a890b7e442c495f85dcb39f1bc00.jpeg ---------------------- William Ashley China web site @ ----> http://www.williamashley.com/

I suspect they'll have a William Ashley booth so shareholders can see the product and get more information. The number of booths have increased dramatically in the last couple of years, and I can't see them getting less anytime soon! Hopefully, we see another couple of acquisitions this year. Cheers! Amazing how Prem builds Fairfax with his first non-insurance investment, this resembles so much Buffetts Borsheims ownership. But I guess most forum members here aren't yet aware of William Ashley's crazy marketing campaign in front of their Toront store. ;) They put sports cars on top of 4 China tea cups to show how strong their products are. :o They had Lamborghinis in the past, and in 2008 a white Tesla Roadster. Lamborghini Superleggera On Teacups Takes “Bull In China Shop” To Literal Extreme 2008-09-09 http://jalopnik.com/5047458/lamborghini-superleggera-on-teacups-takes-bull-in-china-shop-to-literal-extreme http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/12/2008/09/medium_Lamborghini-Tea.jpg ----- http://megawattpr.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/shocking-visuals-win.jpg ----- Lamborghini on Teacups 2006-09-21 http://www.bagofnothing.com/2006/09/lamborghini-on-teacups/ http://www.bagofnothing.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2006/09/teacups.jpeg ----- Tesla Roadster on four teacups, plus... Jonas Brothers 2009-09-12 http://green.autoblog.com/2009/09/12/tesla-roadster-on-four-teacups-plus-jonas-brothers/ http://www.blogcdn.com/green.autoblog.com/media/2009/09/tesla-roadster-on-teacups.jpg Tesla Tea Party: Cups Hold Up Heaping Helping Of Tesla 2009-12-11 http://jalopnik.com/5357422/tesla-tea-party-cups-hold-up-heaping-helping-of-tesla http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/12/2009/09/500x_Tesla-On-China-Toronto-TOP_2.jpg http://www.ohgizmo.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/teacup_tesla.jpg Maybe Prem let us all drive the cars at the next AGM ::) and let's hope that Fairfax is good insured ;D

True words, and the folks that don't understand the mathematical stuff, just fly over to the interesting pages you can understand. here's also a free 60 page earlier excerpt from the book: http://stevanovichcenter.uchicago.edu/seminars/Handbook.pdf and a PDF file from Ed Throp: Medium Term Simulations of The Full Kelly and Fractional -- Kelly Investment Strategies http://www.edwardothorp.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/KellySimulationsNew.pdf

As you may probably know, Prof. William Ziemba recently wrote the most comprehensive book ever published about the Kelly criterion, with over 884 pages of documentation and its history. He wrote the book in collaboration with Edward O. Thorp and Leonard C. MacLean. The book contains well-researched articles about John Kelly, Ed Thorp, Claude Shannon, Warren Buffett, Mohnish Pabrai, Bill Gross, Jim Simons, Elwyn Berlekamp, John von Neumann, Oskar Morgenstern and many others. Ziemba teaches as an Alumni Professor of Financial Modeling and Stochastic Optimization, Emeritus in the Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia in Vancouver. The publisher uploaded some videos to YouTube: Kelly Capital.flv Professor William T Ziemba introduces The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion Video (3:38min) http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSIHM2oTzYBW0U0XCN8vOA5zGnS-p_txKQLHgSqs8xh5TPq8ALYqg He talks about the book, risks, Kelly Criterion, Ed Thorp, and the MIT Blackjack team RMS Research : Interview of William Ziemba, part 1 of 2 Video (11:31min) http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQEe3h5f6yqKuHqa4cBWq9bJlFnmV3579CS7Wdy964gKjr5oEQS RMS Research : Interview of William Ziemba, part 2 of 2 Video (13:36min) http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQEe3h5f6yqKuHqa4cBWq9bJlFnmV3579CS7Wdy964gKjr5oEQS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you don't know about what book I'm talking, here's the publisher link again: The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice (World Scientific Handbook in Financial Economic Series) http://www.worldscibooks.com/covers/7598.jpg http://www.worldscibooks.com/economics/7598.html also the book @ Amazon.com: http://www.amazon.com/Kelly-Capital-Growth-Investment-Criterion/dp/9814293490 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr William T. Ziemba - personal homepage http://www.williamtziemba.com/ http://www.mfe.ntu.edu.sg/faculty/PublishingImages/img_WZiemba.jpg Dr William T. Ziemba @ UBC.edu The University of British Columbia - Vancouver, B.C., Canada http://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/People/Faculty_Members/Ziemba_William Dr William T. Ziemba @ mac.com - homepage http://homepage.mac.com/wtzimi/home.htm ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here's a Wikipedia article collection about the history of the Kelly Criterion and related subjects, like Thorp's book "Beat the Dealer", the MIT Blackjack Team, Ben Mezrich book "Bringing Down the House: The Inside Story of Six MIT Students Who Took Vegas for Millions and the recent screen adaption in the movie "21". Kelly Criterion @ Wikipedia It was described by J. L. Kelly, Jr, in a 1956 issue of the Bell System Technical Journal http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion John L. Kelly @ Wikipedia He was also an associate of Claude Shannon at Bell Labs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Larry_Kelly,_Jr Claude Shannon @ Wikipedia Shannon was Kelly's boss at Bell Labs. Furthermore Shannon had the occasional encounter with John von Neumann, Albert Einstein and Kurt Gödel at Princeton's Institute for Advanced Study. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_Shannon Elwyn Berlekamp @ Wikipedia Berlekamp was John Kelly's research assistant. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elwyn_Berlekamp Elwyn Berlekamp article about the Kelly-Berlekamp-Simons connection. He can probably be considered a Super Quant, because his Axcom Trading Advisors, eventually became the Medallion Fund/=RenTec run by James Simons. http://www.castrader.com/2006/11/elwyn_berlekamp.html Elwyn Berlekamp (homepage) @ Berkeley.edu http://math.berkeley.edu/~berlek/index.html http://www.eecs.berkeley.edu/Faculty/Homepages/berlekamp.html http://math.berkeley.edu/index.php?module=mathfacultyman&MATHFACULTY_MAN_op=sView&MATHFACULTY_id=111 James H. Simons @ Wikipedia He appears to have adopted at least part of Berlekamp's & Kelly's strategy at RenTec http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Harris_Simons Renaissance Technologies @ Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies http://www.rentec.com William Poundstone @ Wikipedia He wrote the book "Fortune's Formula", a detailed history of the Kelly Criterion. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Poundstone Edward O. Thorp @ Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_O._Thorp http://www.fortunesformula.com/about.html http://blackjackidols.com/img/edward-o-thorp.jpg http://www.edwardothorp.com/ Beat the Dealer @ Amazon http://www.amazon.com/Beat-Dealer-Winning-Strategy-Twenty-One/dp/0394703103 MIT Blackjack Team @ Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Blackjack_Team Bringing Down the House (book) @ Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bringing_Down_the_House_(book) 21 - the movie (2008) @ Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/21_(2008_film) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- While we speak about Kelly, there's also an interesting video about "Claude Shannon", Kelly's boss at Bell labs. Codes and Clowns: Claude Shannon the juggling scientist (4:35min) http://www.inkwire.de/uploads/images/Events/Nixdorf/Claude-Shannon.jpg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zEsao7Da4s Claude Shannon, biography at Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_Shannon For disclosure: I edited the paragraph: "The Las Vegas connection: information theory and its applications to game theory" of that wikipedia page months ago. Wrote most parts of the paragraph and also about Elwyn Berlekamp connections. ::) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well,... and finally a mind-boggling video lecture with Kevin Spacey from the movie "21, the movie" about "Variable Change" and the mathematical "Monty Hall Problem" Monty Hall Problem From The Movie 21 about Variable Change (2:21min) http://cache02.casttv.com/104x/1/peuh1v1/21-explains-the-monty-hall-problem.jpg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr_xWfThjJ0 The Monty Hall Problem a cartoon videoclip (5:49min) The Monty Hall Problem is a famous (or rather infamous) probability puzzle. Ron Clarke takes you through the puzzle and explains the counter-intuitive answer. Monty Hall Problem @ Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem hope i posted enough to keep your minds occupied over the weekend :D

there you go with instructions http://www.aboutcookies.org/Default.aspx?page=1 Move the slider to "medium". The default setting is medium. hope this helps. ::)

Off topic, but nice avatar berkshiremystery. I LOVE that book (Godel, Escher, Bach). One of my faves ever. Don't worry, your subject isn't much off topic, because after yesterdays forum crash, all members avatar photos have also crashed into nirvana. Sanjeev's Graham avy pic flushed down into internet heaven. ;) My old Yellow Brick Road picture from the Wizard of Oz was also missing, so it took some while to find an intellectually stimulating eyecatcher :)

here's the link from Bloomberg News: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-11/france-italy-spain-belgium-to-impose-short-sale-curbs-regulator-says.html Anyway,... investors might short via a workaround on foreign markets,.. like buying european shares as an ADR or another negotiable security that represents the underlying securities of a non-U.S. company that trades in the U.S. financial markets.

You or Windows might have wrongly configured the "Internet Explorer" settings/preferences after a software update, or you might have some wrong default cookie settings ::) To find Internet Explorer settings 1. Open Internet Explorer by clicking the Start button . In the search box, type Internet Explorer, and then, in the list of results, click Internet Explorer. 2. Click the Tools button, and then click Internet Options. You might have to change you "Cookie" settings

Definitely agree with this. tip jar would be the best imo. You definitely don't want to lock new prospective members out. A tip jar would be the most logical solution, because I worry the same, as Bargainman, that with a closed community we might tend to stop attracting knowledgeable new members. I am a member from the earliest days of the old forum at MSN (2002/03). In the old days/old MSN forum, I had more time to post here and I would have considered myself a power user. Learned so much by bsilly and you all folks, I had enjoyed the humble humor of lotsofcoke about Chemical Ali and the Shorts :D and besides I would never made that neat money on the sideline. ;D I would also pay for a closed forum with joy, but unfortunately without being open, this forum would have never become the forum it is today - i.e.: attracted all the worshippers. This situation is a type of strategical prisoner's dilemma. ::) Sanjeev might rather want to imitate Mohnish's Dakshana Foundation web page with a PayPal donation link as a tip jar (---> http://www.dakshana.org/donate/donate.asp ).