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berkshiremystery

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Posts posted by berkshiremystery

  1. I know that most of you do not even want to hear talking about gold… Anyway, I think I have just read a very good piece on the topic, and I share it with you.

    At the end of his article Mr. Williams quotes Mr. Pal, from a presentation he made in Shanghai last May. I also attach Mr. Pal’s presentation. You might think that macro is just a waste of time, but please look at slide n.25:

     

    “The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives…

    Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations.”

     

    That is not macro forecasting! Those are actual numbers! Who is on the hook for all that debt? I am aware of the fact that American banks today are much better capitalized than they were in 2008, but, if European and Japanese banks will plunge into a real crisis, do you see American banks get along completely unscatched?

     

    Even if your answer is “Yes!”, wouldn’t you sleep more soundly, knowing that you also own some gold just in case?

     

    “Ultimately, nothing should be more important to investors than the ability to sleep soundly at night.”

    Seth A. Klarman - October 20, 2007 – MIT Remarks

     

    giofranchi

     

    Gio,...

    we had here some good discussions about gold before,... but not sure if you found the message threads. "moore_capital54" seemed to have always some interesting analytical thoughts about gold. I just post the old thread links:

     

    Gold Chart Gone Hyperbolic

    http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/gold-chart-gone-hyperbolic/

     

    You Can't Print More Gold

    http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/you-can't-print-more-gold/

     

    Gold Standard Causes Depressions

    http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/gold-standard-causes-depressions/

     

    Gold Price Is Now Higher Than Inflation Adjusted 1980 Price

    http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/gold-price-is-now-higher-than-inflation-adjusted-1980-price/

     

    China To Install More Than 2000 Good ATM's

    http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/china-to-install-more-than-2-000-gold-atms/

     

    Cramer Blasting Buffett Over Gold (for entertainment value only)

    http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/cramer-blasting-buffett-over-gold-(for-entertainment-value-only)/

     

     

  2. Here are links to share quotes: EUPRO:GA

     

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EUPRO:GA

     

    http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=EUPRO:GA

     

     

    Key Statistics for EUPRO

    Current P/E Ratio (ttm) 45.0000

    Estimated P/E (12/2012 ) 7.6415

    Earnings Per Share (EUR) (ttm) 0.0900

    Est. EPS (EUR) (12/2012) 0.5300

    Est. PEG Ratio -

    Market Cap (M EUR) 247.05

    Shares Outstanding (M) 61.00

    Enterprise Value (M EUR) (ttm) 186.39

    Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm) -

    Price/Book (mrq) 0.3631

    Price/Sale (ttm) 5.6018

    Dividend Indicated Gross Yield 9.2422

    Next Earnings Announcement

     

  3. Also some more links about Eurobank Properties:

     

    http://www.eurobankproperties.gr/default.aspx?lang=en-US

     

    Stock Performance 30/08/2012

    Stock Closing Value 4.42€

    Change -4.12%

    Capitalization 269.620.000€

     

    NAV per share 30/06/2012

    NAV 10.32€

     

    With the last company presentation as June 2012:

    http://www.eurobankproperties.gr/EurobankPropertiesUploads/presentations/2012_06%20Company%20Presentation.pdf

     

     

    Largest Investment Property Fund in Greece

    High quality property portfolio and solid tenant mix (EFG Group, AB Vasilopoulos, Carrefour, Praktiker, H&M, L’Oreal, P&G, CYTA Hellas) that produced annual rental revenue in the range of € 43 Μ and passing yield 8% approximately

    ▪ Tax-Efficient Structure in Greece; REICs are exempt from

    - Rental income tax

    - Capital gains tax

    - Transaction tax

    - Dividend tax

    ▪ Attractive Dividend Policy

     

    Dividend per share Dividend yield (at year end)

    2009 € 0.55 6.63%

    2010 € 0.53 8.91%

    2011 € 0.40 10.53%

     

    Actual Data as at 31.03.2012

    ▪ € 163 Million in Cash (Term Deposits) with an average deposit rate 6.02%

    ▪ Low LTV with long maturity

    - Loan to Value – 14%

    - Debt (& all other liabilities) to Total Assets – 15%

    - € 86,9 million total debt outstanding as of 31.03.2012

    - Average maturity – 7.5 years

    - Weighted average cost of debt – 3.58%

    - All debt is on floating interest rate

     

    Share Price Information:

    ▪ Share Price (30/3/2012)  €3.65

    ▪ Share Price (13/6/2012)  € 2.90

    NAV per share (31/3/2012)  € 10.94

    Discount to NAV (31/3/2012)  67%

    ▪ Capitalization (31/3/2012) €223 M

    ▪ Dividend per share ‘11  € 0.40

    ▪ Dividend yield (31/12/11) 10.53%

     

    Total Shares Outstanding : 59.99 million

     

    They are currently buying back some tiny amounts of their own shares at below half NAV,...

    so it's almost a little comparable with AIG repurchases.

    http://www.eurobankproperties.gr/EurobankPropertiesUploads/Εταιρικές_Ανακοινώσεις/ΙΔΙΕΣ%20ΜΕΤΟΧΕΣ%202012/August/ANNOUNCEMENT%20-%20ACQUISITION%20OF%20TREASURY%20SHARES%2030%2008%202012.pdf

     

    http://www.eurobankproperties.gr/EurobankPropertiesUploads/Εταιρικές_Ανακοινώσεις/ΙΔΙΕΣ%20ΜΕΤΟΧΕΣ%202012/August/ANNOUNCEMENT%20-%20ACQUISITION%20OF%20TREASURY%20SHARES%2029%2008%202012.pdf

     

    http://www.eurobankproperties.gr/EurobankPropertiesUploads/Εταιρικές_Ανακοινώσεις/ΙΔΙΕΣ%20ΜΕΤΟΧΕΣ%202012/August/ANNOUNCEMENT%20-%20ACQUISITION%20OF%20TREASURY%20SHARES%2027%2008%202012.pdf

     

     

     

     

     

  4. Did you guys notice FFH purchased a Greek REIT?  The REIT is Eurobank properties and has more cash then debt and has FFO yield of 18% once the cash is pulled out.

     

     

    Packer

     

    You did surprise me with that announcement,... well,... I did already wonder when they would do some investment into Greece. But the deal is relative small,... only some 43 million Euro.

     

    Here's the press release:

     

    Acquisition of Eurobank Properties REIC’s treasury shares by Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited.

    Marousi, August 22, 2012

     

    http://docs.noodls.com/viewDoc.asp?filename=67055/EXT/635C18B3E52FD4B1D8A454778419FFCEC798F401_83840E548154B2F73F68EF7ED1389C0C18D2663C.PDF

     

    Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited acquired 9,017,987 shares of Eurobank Properties REIC yesterday, at an acquisition price of €4.75 per share. The seller was Lamda Development S.A.

  5. Francis Chou still praise investing in us financial and TARP warrant, but on the other side he has sold half his warrant of BAC? I dont get it...

     

    I had already seen this some while ago,... but don't worry,... it only seems he had managed to average in and out a little. He bought at much higher prices,... very early, and bought at lower values in the 2nd half of 2011, thus averaging down,... probably around the December lows around $2.00. It seems that he trimmed some of these purchases recently.

     

    http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001389403&HolderName=CHOU+ASSOCIATES+MANAGEMENT+INC%2E

     

    http://www.investorpoint.com/stock/BAC.WS.A-BANK%20OF%20AMERICA%20WARRANTS/

     

    I personally don't plan to trim my a warrants.

  6. Here it is:

     

    David Tepper at Carnegie Mellon

    http://variantperceptions.wordpress.com/2010/11/20/1627/

     

    Is there a way to download the video onto my computer so i can save it for later.

     

    Do you know what theory he was talking about in the start.

     

    Just try some "YouTube Downloader" software or search for it:

     

    http://www.google.com/#hl=en&sugexp=les%3B&gs_nf=1&cp=9&gs_id=14&xhr=t&q=youtube+downloader&pf=p&sclient=tablet-gws&safe=off&tbo=d&biw=768&bih=900&oq=youtube+d&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=682ab996b03bf19a

     

    http://keepvid.com/

     

    http://youtubedownloader.com/

     

     

     

     

  7.  

    Spain’s Ortega Overtakes Buffett As World’s Third-Richest

     

    Amancio Ortega, who founded retailer Inditex SA (ITX), has bumped Warren Buffett from his perch as the world’s third-richest person. That places the owner of the Zara clothing chain above the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) chairman, who has a net worth of $45.7 billion and had ranked No. 3 on the index since its inception March 5.

     

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-07/spain-s-ortega-overtakes-buffett-as-world-s-third-richest.html?cmpid=yhoo

  8. I can only refer to an article on Charlie Munger in Forbes, February 22, 1996. It was the cover story, probably one of the best ever titled: "Charlie Munger: plumbers are useful, money managers aren't"

     

    He said: "personally, I think that if security trading in America were to go down by 80%, the civilization would work better. And if I were god, I d' change the tax rules so it would go down by 80%, in fact , by more than 80%". Munger once proposed a 100% tax on gains taken in less than a year from securities trading.

     

    Well,... personally I could live with some 50% or even 100% tax on gains shorter than 6 months or something similar, and every tax rate beyond going slowly down over 2, 3, or 5 years to 10%. I would also make holdings after 7 or 10 years, totatally tax free, so to encourage people to save long term for retirement. It would be some perfect system that penalizes short term thinking and encourages responsibilities. I guess such a system would effect me as a frugal investor not at all. Anyway,... unfortunately, it will never happen.

  9. tombgrt,

    Horizon Kinetics has just released its Q2 Commentary. Probably, you have already read it, but I attach it anyway. On page 10 they write: “The largest holding in many of our strategies, and that which probably attaches to the greatest number of predictive attributes, is Liberty Media Corporation.”

    Do you own LMCA? I have nothing but the utmost respect for Mr. Malone, but I haven’t invested alongside him yet… He is 71, probably won’t go on compounding for the next 20 years, but, let’ say, 10 years, at the rate he is used to compounding capital, are perfectly fine with me!!

    If you own LMCA, how do you value the company? You think it is undervalued right now?

    Thank you very much!

     

     

    No, I don't own LMCA. Was going to read the letter later this week, always a great read! There are so many things investing-related that are worth reading that it tends to pile up at times.

     

    I should mention that you won't get much value from me. I just started investing in late 2010 (I'm really nowhere yet) and am actually still a student. Hope to graduate in a month tho. ;) The hunt for the bargain and thirst for knowledge make my clock tick!

     

    Yes! But . . . "Never smile at a crocodile!"

     

          ------ Captain Hook

     

    Tedd Weschler favored LMCA at Peninsula, of course he is currently winding down his fund after he took the job at Berkshire.

    http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001265816&HolderName=PENINSULA+CAPITAL+ADVISORS+LLC

  10. The Fairfax Financial 2013 AGM is set for Thursday April 11th at Roy Thomson Hall.  Naturally, our Fairfax Financial Shareholder's Dinner will be held the night before.  Cheers!

     

    http://www.fairfax.ca/news/events-and-webcasts/default.aspx

     

    The announcement is this year earlier. Last year they placed the news on their website around October.

     

    http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/fairfax-financial/fairfax-financial-agm-shareholder's-dinner/

     

    I can only urge everybody to not book yet any airline tickets, unless you only want to make some vacation. This year they did reschedule the 2012 AGM from April 12th to April 26th, because of some scheduling conflicts at Roy Thomson Hall. So let's stay calm.

  11. ERICOPOLY,

    I was wondering: any idea why Mr. Watsa is not investing in BAC or in AIG right now? I know they are outside my circle of competence and I stay away. But I agree with you that BAC is extremely cheap right now, and I wouldn’t mind being invested in BAC through FFH. Like I don’t mind being invested in JEF through LUK, even though I would never invest in JEF by myself. Like I don’t mind being invested in YHOO through Third Point Offshore, even though I would never invest in YHOO by myself.

    Thank you very much!

     

    giofranchi

     

     

    Well,... remember... Mr. Watsa/FFH is indirectly invested in BAC,... through his stake in the Chou funds, but it's probably not worth to mention here because the percentage would be very tiny.

     

    By the way,... I asked Mohnish personally in Toronto about his opinion about AIG,... whether he likes the company or set a value on them. He just said, that he hasn't an opinion, and AIG is not in the circle of competence. -- Anyway,... we might be able to peek into his next 13f very soon.

  12.  

     

    I just had the first time the opportunity to watch the video. I was shocked to hear that after he wrote some truthful article about the financial crises titled "I Saw the Crisis Coming. Why Didn’t the Fed?" in 2010,... that the Washington political establishment did scrutinize him,... they did send the FBI, SEC, and auditors to look into all his office files. (watch the video at minute 14). He had over $1 million of legal and accounting costs only because he asked questions and they got jealous. I remember didn't such a thing once also happen to Mohnish in his earlier years that he was scrutinized by some jealous people.

     

    I just retread this famous article,... very interesting:

     

    April 4, 2010

    I Saw the Crisis Coming. Why Didn’t the Fed?

    By MICHAEL J. BURRY -- Cupertino, Calif.

    http://investinginknowledge.com/info/category/berkshirehathaway/

     

     

     

  13. Ups,  disappeared. Anyway, not that he needs them ... but kudos to Mohnish. The old –now new– strategy was always fine.

     

    Sure,... but it took his hard working brain some time to realize it. Now he feels much more comfortable with his old strategy and cash should always be king, as he says.

  14. I'm aware that he probably found some great new opportunities to put money into, and therefore sold some others. Selling appreciated positions below intrinsic value to buy even cheaper ones. I just did it myself with one of my favorites. It's sometimes hard, but pure logic succeeds. I believe his results will be far superior in the next years compared with others. I can barely wait to see his new 2nd qtr 13F filings in about 2 weeks.  ;D ... and in today's market the best values are probably in very big caps.

  15. When I first read it I thought maybe you meant that buybacks alone would increase eps from 2 (I believe that was Berkowitz' number)

     

    I think Berkowitz has been saying $2-$3. 

     

     

     

    In 2009 Paulson had also some $3 EPS estimate in his head.

    http://touch.valuewalk.com/valuewalk/#!/entry/a-flaw-in-paulsons-calculation,501638c17af68a84dc48b87a

     

    I would rather say that such an number is near term unrealistic, but in my opinion a $2 EPS number should be easier achievable around/after 2015 or in the following years thereafter. But it also depends on where the share price trades,... if it stays lower for some extended time frame they might be able to reach some higher EPS ratio through share repurchases.  A $2 EPS number on a $7.5 stock price would be an awesome 26.67% earnings yield. Anyway, I myself feel with a lower estimate of around $2 EPS much more comfortable,... it is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.

     

  16. Very very clear... and alarming!! You compel me to do some serious thoughts!

     

    But just to be clear: I didn't mention the hedges on FFH's equity investment, to implay that they would be a protection against the threat of a RIM bankruptcy. I am not that naïve… At least, I hope I am not!! :) Instead, I mentioned the equity hedges, just to say that, without them, FFH investments gains for the first 6 months of 2012 would have been much bigger: instead of those paltry $30.6 million, they would have been $463.8 million, or almost 6,4% of common shareholder equity. And that is already counting all the losses in RIM, in ABH, in LVLT, occurred during the first 6 months of 2012.

     

    If you read the numbers differently, please let me know!

     

    giofranchi

     

    Nope,... your reasoning is well thought through. Don't worry your English is perfect,... if you haven't realized,... most north American nations,... specially USA & Canada,... are founded and occupied by immigrants,... so a big part of the population has some colorful foreign language accent. So you as some Italian, would be almost the perfect Canadian,... *wink ;-) What I mean, it's not like in Europe, or Italy,... if you speak with some foreign accent,... where you feel like a stranger. In north America everybody is the same while speaking,... Francis,.. Mohnish,... probably worry the same as you,... and your language skills are perfectly :)

  17. Thank you berkshiremystery! I am on my way to check out your recommendations!

    That's why I like this board so much: it offers the opportunity to meet and interact with many knowledgeable people!

     

    Well,... some additional note,... the cheapest price/book value of these 3 companies currently has FlagstoneRe,... which is also owned by Chou....

    http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001389403&HolderName=CHOU+ASSOCIATES+MANAGEMENT+INC%2E

     

    I personally currently don't own any of them.

    I had WTM, MKL & MRH,... but sold them to get cheaper other values.

     

    -----

     

    Some notice,... somehow it looks like Chou has reduced his BAC warrants in the 1st qtr by about 1/5

  18.  

     

    Of course, if anyone knows of an insurance company that satisfies points number 1 to 6 as well as FFH does, but today is cheaper than FFH, please let me know!!!

     

    at least worth a read of the financials are also: RenaissanceRe (RNR), MontpelierRe (MRH)... formerly a new spinoff from (WTM), and FlagstoneRe (FSR)... which was founded by Jacks Byrne's son, Mark.

  19. Some interesting points from Prem about RIMM:

     

    ------

     

    Prem Watsa spoke to The Globe and Mail earlier this week about Fairfax’s decision to become the largest shareholder in Research In Motion Ltd., the struggling BlackBerry maker. These were his comments:

     

    “We believe in [RIM CEO] Thorsten Heins and we firmly support him and the entire BlackBerry team working tirelessly on the new [blackBerry 10] platform … He’s got the experience and the passion for it, and he’s going to get it done. He is on a mission.”

     

    “As John Templeton said ‘the best investments are made at the point of maximum pessimism.’ We don’t know if RIM has reached that point, but we figure it’s pretty close.”

     

    “This company has a tremendous brand name that is recognized worldwide. It has 78 million users, 56 million BlackBerry messenger users, patents and a worldwide network.”

     

    “When any company gets this cheap it could be taken over, but we believe this is a great Canadian company with a tremendous future. I joined the board to assist in any way I can.”

     

    We’ve never seen a technology company, with assets and talent of this calibre, come down as cheap as the stock of this one has. The marketplace seems to be pricing the stock as if the company might simply close its doors shortly … It’s not like this is a start-up venture capital company. There is a worldwide following, significant capital, tremendous talent and singular focus on innovation.”

     

    -----

     

    source:  http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/fairfaxs-watsa-prepares-for-the-worst/article4443471/

     

     

    If someone would compare RIMM vs APPL on market value relative to user base,... RIMM would be tremendously cheap.

     

    APPL  $550 billion / 410 million iOS users = $ 1,341.46

    RIMM  $3.8 billion / 78 million users =        $    48.72

     

    Source of iOS use base: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IOS

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