A_Hamilton

tooskinneejs, I understand he wants to lock in the 7 years at 3%, I just think the 5 year fixed at penfed, with a max 2% bump for years 6-10 is a fantastic deal versus a potential 500 basis point jump at the end of the 7 year fixed term. Separately, as you say, tough to beat PenFed on fees. This could save you a point or two upfront!

I say forget the 7/1 and use PenFed's 5/5 Program www.penfed.org

Mark Holowesko I don't have his recent performance numbers offhand, but Hamblin Watsa has a $4.5-$5.0 million investment in his fund through Odyssey (beginning with a $3 million commitment at inception a 8 or 9 years ago). One of the best global long/short managers out there with a fantastic team. I have heard him speak three times and it is always extremely enlightening. He began running Templeton's shop at age 27, and eventually broke off and started his own company. 13F-HR filing is here: http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1428569/000142856912000001/holowesko13f123111.txt Though be careful when rooting through these as many of these could be paired with a short position. Old video of him speaking here: http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Teaching_Applications/Guest_Speakers/2005_speakers.htm He was recently interviewed on Consuelo Mack's Wealthtrack, but the discussion was totally dumbed down relative to how he speaks to investors/MBA groups.

Were there slides today as in previous years? If so, can someone post them here! Thank you!

I generally agree, but I think that if these guys are audited by a big 4 company, that has to say something about the firm's survival. I know that there have been scandals recently, but I feel like legitimate Auditors have got to be all over these companies at this point.

Giggles...

Thank you for your answers on this. I don't want to do anything illegal, I just want to be able to continue to use the phone that I paid for 2 1/2 years ago. I knew that Congress forced cell phone carriers to release the phones people's phones at some point, just didn't know the steps to move to another network.

I am currently on Sprint's network and am looking at switching carriers, does any one have information on what I'd need to do to unlock my phone, and, to be able to use it on a monthly pay as you go plan in the United States? I'm trying to keep my Blackberry (of all things) so that I don't have to buy a new phone! Thank you for any help in advance!

I don't think you have to make very heroic assumptions to get to $60 IV. $5 per share in earnings is equal to the $19 billion they earned this year. 12x that figure gets you to $60. This gives no credit to his belief that they'll hit $23-$24 billion, which should be a layup between winddown of legacy mortgage and growth in the int'l franchise.

Finished reading Dimon's letter. It has some great parts but it is a little too long and unfocused. On the good, Dimon is doing a real effort on trying to find a middle ground on the issue of regulation acknowledging a lot of the good. Dimon is also very specific, and it is not a laundry list, on what he does not like and sometimes is just a question of degrees. I also liked very much Dimon's reasoning on why buyback its own stock is such a good deal for JPM and, I would argue, for all the banks. His commentary on buybacks was absurd. He said that he has no interest in buying back the stock at or above $45, yet he has normalized profit pegged at $23-$24 billion or a little over $6 per share in earnings. So at $45 he's talking about a 7.5x multiple and he won't buy back the stock? Even on current earnings of $19 billion at $45 per share he would be buying in at 9x earnings. Someone needs to talk some sense in to him. In my opinion they should cut the dividend back to $0 and buyback as much stock as the gov't will allow them to do until the stock runs up ~$60 (unless they've repurchased a ton under that by the time it gets to $60, at which point this number goes higher).

Yes, but you are looking at growth in litigation relative to GDP. Look at the growth in lawyers on pg. 5. Per capita their incomes are definitely falling as there are simply too many law schools in the United States.

if he is remembered it will be as the Anti-Volker. Volker stopped inflation in it's tracks. Bernake has a lighter in his hand. Though in my mind, it appears that both have done an extraordinarily wonderful job with the hand dealt. Just imagine if Bernanke had listened to traditional fiscal conservative wisdom and opted not to pursue QE...we'd be in the proverbial dark ages as velocity of money slowed with no way to keep the stock up. Now Bernanke needs a President and a Congress that can step up and cut government entitlements for senior citizens and he may literally go down in history as an Alexander Hamilton or Jacques Necker. Really dark ages? How can you be sure? Bernake is great because he tells you exactly what he is going to do, which is mana from heaven for hedgies. Bernake is going to look foolish for saying st int rates are going to be zero through 2014. We'll see how foolish he looks. Tax Increases set to take effect next year, and a possible push by a new Republican majority to put in place some immediate austerity measures could meaningfully sink the recovery. Plus, the Fed can keep rates at 0% and increase the reserve ratio to whatever level they'd like and that will greatly dampen the number of dollars running through the system. (Holding another LTCM/AIG/CDO Squared creation constant!)

The site doesn't even clearly indicate which companies if any have signed up. Buy stocks directly with a credit card! And the federal reserve thought credit default swaps were a bad idea!!!

if he is remembered it will be as the Anti-Volker. Volker stopped inflation in it's tracks. Bernake has a lighter in his hand. Though in my mind, it appears that both have done an extraordinarily wonderful job with the hand dealt. Just imagine if Bernanke had listened to traditional fiscal conservative wisdom and opted not to pursue QE...we'd be in the proverbial dark ages as velocity of money slowed with no way to keep the stock up. Now Bernanke needs a President and a Congress that can step up and cut government entitlements for senior citizens and he may literally go down in history as an Alexander Hamilton or Jacques Necker.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/04/the-villain/8901/

http://www.bwater.com/Uploads/FileManager/research/deleveraging/an-in-depth-look-at-deleveragings--ray-dalio-bridgewater.pdf

This is about a year old but is fascinating: http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/01/ff_lottery/all/1

I have looked at SWY a number of times and know the story well. A number of questions to think about on this one: 1.) How are you determining free cash flow yield? What are you assuming for maintenance capex? SWY "overinvested" in CAPEX from 2004-2008 in order to refresh stores to their lifestyle models. By 2009 and 2010 they didn't need to do as much maintenance capex as others because the store base had been refreshed. 2.) What do you think about the fact that gross margins and operating margins fall religiously year in and year out? 3.) Referring to point #2, how much free cash flow will there be if gross margins fall another 200 bps. 4.) I agree with their current thought process in some respects on share repurchase. It certainly has a lower after tax cost than the dividend. However, the dividend is discretionary, interest payments are not. 5.) What do you believe it will cost to make up for pension shortfall overtime? 6.) What do you value Blackhawk at? These are all just questions, but the margin questions are concerning enough that I've been unwilling to put more than immaterial sums into the name. Separately, it may make sense to have SWY discussion moved to the Investment Ideas board.

I have looked at SWY a number of times and know the story well. A number of questions to think about on this one: 1.) How are you determining free cash flow yield? What are you assuming for maintenance capex? SWY "overinvested" in CAPEX from 2004-2008 in order to refresh stores to their lifestyle models. By 2009 and 2010 they didn't need to do as much maintenance capex as others because the store base had been refreshed. 2.) What do you think about the fact that gross margins and operating margins fall religiously year in and year out? 3.) Referring to point #2, how much free cash flow will there be if gross margins fall another 200 bps. 4.) I agree with their current thought process in some respects on share repurchase. It certainly has a lower after tax cost than the dividend. However, the dividend is discretionary, interest payments are not. 5.) What do you believe it will cost to make up for pension shortfall overtime? 6.) What do you value Blackhawk at? These are all just questions, but the margin questions are concerning enough that I've been unwilling to put more than immaterial sums into the name.

Absolutely not.

I'm guessing he's not a Level 3 customer.

Did you include the total return swap that FFH owned at ORH?

Thanks Parsad, and other for responses to this. Great to get the Canadian perspective on this. I think it's a brilliant position for FFH to be in. Sitting on the board of a school known to draw students with great ability to innovate, and potentially getting to invest alongside them. Seems like a win/win. They get a smart Chancellor, Watsa gets to do well by doing good.

Can anyone give me an idea of the perception of the quality of the University of Waterloo education in Canada? Is the Waterloo area a mini-Canadian tech hub (ex-RIMM)? Perhaps FFH's interest is linked more to this phenomenon. If RIMM can attract the brightest Canadian tech developers, then over time it will find a way to compete globally.

Why would I want a change? Income Statement - 10 Year Summary (in Millions) Sales EBIT Net Income EPS Tax Rate (%) 06/11 69,943.0 28,071.0 23,150.0 2.69 17.53 06/10 62,484.0 25,013.0 18,760.0 2.1 25.0 06/09 58,437.0 19,821.0 14,569.0 1.62 26.5 06/08 60,420.0 23,814.0 17,681.0 1.87 25.75 06/07 51,122.0 20,101.0 14,065.0 1.42 30.03 06/06 44,282.0 18,262.0 12,599.0 1.2 31.01 06/05 39,788.0 16,628.0 12,254.0 1.12 26.31 06/04 36,835.0 12,196.0 8,168.0 0.75 33.03 06/03 32,187.0 11,054.0 7,531.0 0.69 31.87 06/02 28,365.0 7,875.0 5,355.0 0.48 32.0 Balance Sheet - 10 Year Summary (in Millions) Current Assets Current Liabilities Long Term Debt Shares Outstanding 06/11 108,704.0 51,621.0 11,921.0 8.4 Bil 06/10 86,113.0 39,938.0 4,939.0 8.7 Bil 06/09 77,888.0 38,330.0 3,746.0 8.9 Bil 06/08 72,793.0 36,507.0 0.0 9.2 Bil 06/07 63,171.0 32,074.0 0.0 9.4 Bil 06/06 69,597.0 29,493.0 0.0 10.1 Bil 06/05 70,815.0 22,700.0 0.0 10.7 Bil 06/04 94,368.0 19,543.0 0.0 10.9 Bil 06/03 81,732.0 16,820.0 0.0 10.8 Bil 06/02 67,646.0 15,466.0 0.0 10.7 Bil