A_Hamilton

Tombgrt, I don't know if you are a shareholder or not, but for what its worth I about jumped thru the phone at DELL IR the day of the announcement. I'm sure Longleaf was just in pure shock.

...He is a very concrete and no-nonsense ROIC guy and over the years has made some tough decisions. See, this is what I believed until the recent announcement of a quarterly dividend after years of repurchasing stock at prices that are significantly higher than current levels. Now, I know many will argue that it only costs ~$500 million per year to do the dividend, but in my mind initiating a dividend after all of the higher priced repo's is a tacit admission that you purchased stock at too high of a price previously or that you don't know what you are doing on the capital allocation front!

I thought that was what Whitney Tilson was all about? Am I wrong?

Long BMW3 (BMW's preferred) Short BMW Common I'll leave it at that.

Plumbers, Pipefitters & Mes Local v. Fairfax, et al., the class action suit against Fairfax, was dismissed on Monday. As Judge Keenan's opinion states "...the Defendants' motion to dismiss is granted. Because the statute of repose has run, the Court declines to grant leave to replead. The Clerk of Court is directed to close this case."

Maybe tomorrow Byrne will get to the business of running overstock.

I hope for his sake he doesn't think it's Pandit!!! Awful.

Weill has got to be the biggest thorn in Jamie Dimon's side. First he cans him and now he tries to breakup his business!

Some mope just showed an order to sell 7,800 shares in the OTCBB at a limit of $372...if showing 25% of FFH's daily toronto volume on the pink sheets in one fell swoop isn't a way to lose your shirt on a trade, I don't know what is!

Prem Watsa in Q&A on most recent conference call May 2, 2012: Treasury rates have come down. Last year, long treasuries were the best asset to have, and so we've sold half our treasuries, we told you, long treasuries, and we continue to sell it. We likely won't have any treasuries soon. And so we're continuing to sell that, the long treasury position.

The market sees the horrible value traps they have bought recently in businesses or industries eclipsed by technological change and ignores their outstanding, long term investing record, especially in bonds. The $500 million question for this quarter is when during the quarter they unloaded the LT treasuries. Did they get any benefit at all from the day yields dropped to 1.45% on the ten year, or were they already out completely? I fear they were pretty much out of the trade by then.

I agree that right now these guys are at very low leverage levels (6x being lower than NLY's historical average of 8-12x). However, realize that they are at 6x precisely because they realize that the duration of their MBS position is going to increase to absurd levels on a sustained 200-300 bps increase in mortgage rates (for instance w/o offsetting swaps, the duration of their book to equity could easily be 90 assuming durations on mortgages move out to 15 years (D/E *(duration of assets- duration of liabilities)) at 6x leverage...one better hope they have got their decimals right on their swap hedges!!!). Also, to the extent that operation twist/economic conditions cause long dated treasuries and mortgage rates to continue to decline, the spread on NLY's book will continue to narrow. Historically, they've levered up when spreads have narrowed to keep ROE flat. However, this won't be possible if yield curve continues to flatten out and they need to worry about the duration extension issue. Separate of all this, on an extreme shock, I wouldn't be surprised to see haircuts move from 3-5-8% for agency paper...though the federal reserve would move quickly to add hundreds of billions to the monetary base to stop this from happening.

I'd add to this: what is a sustainable leverage ratio for an agency REIT, and what kind of haircut should they expect repo lenders to take on their collateral.

I think they both have the opportunity to be grand slam homeruns. Forget the investment bank and CIO at JPM for a moment, look at massive increase in employees at Commercial/Asset Management/RFS/TSS. JPM is easily the best positioned U.S. bank to capture custody/management of the massive amounts of wealth that will be generated over the next 25 years.

Huh? PUSH as not a valid stock symbol. Publix is a private company. PUSH is technically a public company, as the number of employees who own it make it fit the technical definition of a public company. However, only active employees can hold shares, and the company sets the price at which people are allowed to either purchase shares or sell shares. From what I can see they have 152k shareholders, which I'd presume are employees? In theory couldn't you contact an employee and buy their shares? Unless the company has a right of first refusal (which they could very well) employees are free to sell shares in privately negotiated sales. For some odd reason the symbol PUSH pulls up a quote for me at Fidelity. Seeing the quote, the SEC filings, and details on otcmarkets.com I figured it was just an illiquid company. Thanks for the clarifications on it. Another oddity like this is Davey Tree service, they have over 300 shareholders so they report to the SEC, they have a really nice annual report as well. Shares can only be obtained secondhand through privately negotiated purchases. pg 14 footnote 1 of the most recent Q "Common stock is made available for sale only to the Company’s current employees through the Company’s ESPP and to participants of the Company’s 401(k) Plan. In addition, common stock is made available under the ESOP. Common stock is also made available for sale to members of the Company’s Board of Directors through the Directors Plan. The Company currently repurchases common stock subject to certain terms and conditions. The ESPP, 401(k) Plan, ESOP and Directors Plan each contain provisions prohibiting any transfer for value without the owner first offering the common stock to the Company."

Huh? PUSH as not a valid stock symbol. Publix is a private company. PUSH is technically a public company, as the number of employees who own it make it fit the technical definition of a public company. However, only active employees can hold shares, and the company sets the price at which people are allowed to either purchase shares or sell shares.

Wrigley's Gum.

Thank you for the link, Norm!

Benchmark, what state do you live in, and is your mortgage balance less than fannie/freddie maximums? I look at a LOT of banks and thrifts so may have an idea of who is competitive in your market area.

I agree. He also mentions that the consolidated national consumer balance sheet largely has a negative duration gap with a large amount of checkable deposits against a relatively smaller position in long term mortgage borrowing. He says that raising rates will drive more consumption. However, I think his aggregate view misses the fact that there are huge differences in the way consumer balance sheets look at different income and wealth levels. Overall ZIRP certainly causes incrementally more consumer demand than having higher interest rates.

tooskinneejs, I understand he wants to lock in the 7 years at 3%, I just think the 5 year fixed at penfed, with a max 2% bump for years 6-10 is a fantastic deal versus a potential 500 basis point jump at the end of the 7 year fixed term. Separately, as you say, tough to beat PenFed on fees. This could save you a point or two upfront!

I say forget the 7/1 and use PenFed's 5/5 Program www.penfed.org

Mark Holowesko I don't have his recent performance numbers offhand, but Hamblin Watsa has a $4.5-$5.0 million investment in his fund through Odyssey (beginning with a $3 million commitment at inception a 8 or 9 years ago). One of the best global long/short managers out there with a fantastic team. I have heard him speak three times and it is always extremely enlightening. He began running Templeton's shop at age 27, and eventually broke off and started his own company. 13F-HR filing is here: http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1428569/000142856912000001/holowesko13f123111.txt Though be careful when rooting through these as many of these could be paired with a short position. Old video of him speaking here: http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Teaching_Applications/Guest_Speakers/2005_speakers.htm He was recently interviewed on Consuelo Mack's Wealthtrack, but the discussion was totally dumbed down relative to how he speaks to investors/MBA groups.

Were there slides today as in previous years? If so, can someone post them here! Thank you!

I generally agree, but I think that if these guys are audited by a big 4 company, that has to say something about the firm's survival. I know that there have been scandals recently, but I feel like legitimate Auditors have got to be all over these companies at this point.