A_Hamilton

I think they both have the opportunity to be grand slam homeruns. Forget the investment bank and CIO at JPM for a moment, look at massive increase in employees at Commercial/Asset Management/RFS/TSS. JPM is easily the best positioned U.S. bank to capture custody/management of the massive amounts of wealth that will be generated over the next 25 years.

Huh? PUSH as not a valid stock symbol. Publix is a private company. PUSH is technically a public company, as the number of employees who own it make it fit the technical definition of a public company. However, only active employees can hold shares, and the company sets the price at which people are allowed to either purchase shares or sell shares. From what I can see they have 152k shareholders, which I'd presume are employees? In theory couldn't you contact an employee and buy their shares? Unless the company has a right of first refusal (which they could very well) employees are free to sell shares in privately negotiated sales. For some odd reason the symbol PUSH pulls up a quote for me at Fidelity. Seeing the quote, the SEC filings, and details on otcmarkets.com I figured it was just an illiquid company. Thanks for the clarifications on it. Another oddity like this is Davey Tree service, they have over 300 shareholders so they report to the SEC, they have a really nice annual report as well. Shares can only be obtained secondhand through privately negotiated purchases. pg 14 footnote 1 of the most recent Q "Common stock is made available for sale only to the Company’s current employees through the Company’s ESPP and to participants of the Company’s 401(k) Plan. In addition, common stock is made available under the ESOP. Common stock is also made available for sale to members of the Company’s Board of Directors through the Directors Plan. The Company currently repurchases common stock subject to certain terms and conditions. The ESPP, 401(k) Plan, ESOP and Directors Plan each contain provisions prohibiting any transfer for value without the owner first offering the common stock to the Company."

Huh? PUSH as not a valid stock symbol. Publix is a private company. PUSH is technically a public company, as the number of employees who own it make it fit the technical definition of a public company. However, only active employees can hold shares, and the company sets the price at which people are allowed to either purchase shares or sell shares.

Wrigley's Gum.

Thank you for the link, Norm!

Benchmark, what state do you live in, and is your mortgage balance less than fannie/freddie maximums? I look at a LOT of banks and thrifts so may have an idea of who is competitive in your market area.

I agree. He also mentions that the consolidated national consumer balance sheet largely has a negative duration gap with a large amount of checkable deposits against a relatively smaller position in long term mortgage borrowing. He says that raising rates will drive more consumption. However, I think his aggregate view misses the fact that there are huge differences in the way consumer balance sheets look at different income and wealth levels. Overall ZIRP certainly causes incrementally more consumer demand than having higher interest rates.

tooskinneejs, I understand he wants to lock in the 7 years at 3%, I just think the 5 year fixed at penfed, with a max 2% bump for years 6-10 is a fantastic deal versus a potential 500 basis point jump at the end of the 7 year fixed term. Separately, as you say, tough to beat PenFed on fees. This could save you a point or two upfront!

I say forget the 7/1 and use PenFed's 5/5 Program www.penfed.org

Mark Holowesko I don't have his recent performance numbers offhand, but Hamblin Watsa has a $4.5-$5.0 million investment in his fund through Odyssey (beginning with a $3 million commitment at inception a 8 or 9 years ago). One of the best global long/short managers out there with a fantastic team. I have heard him speak three times and it is always extremely enlightening. He began running Templeton's shop at age 27, and eventually broke off and started his own company. 13F-HR filing is here: http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1428569/000142856912000001/holowesko13f123111.txt Though be careful when rooting through these as many of these could be paired with a short position. Old video of him speaking here: http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Teaching_Applications/Guest_Speakers/2005_speakers.htm He was recently interviewed on Consuelo Mack's Wealthtrack, but the discussion was totally dumbed down relative to how he speaks to investors/MBA groups.

Were there slides today as in previous years? If so, can someone post them here! Thank you!

I generally agree, but I think that if these guys are audited by a big 4 company, that has to say something about the firm's survival. I know that there have been scandals recently, but I feel like legitimate Auditors have got to be all over these companies at this point.

Giggles...

Thank you for your answers on this. I don't want to do anything illegal, I just want to be able to continue to use the phone that I paid for 2 1/2 years ago. I knew that Congress forced cell phone carriers to release the phones people's phones at some point, just didn't know the steps to move to another network.

I am currently on Sprint's network and am looking at switching carriers, does any one have information on what I'd need to do to unlock my phone, and, to be able to use it on a monthly pay as you go plan in the United States? I'm trying to keep my Blackberry (of all things) so that I don't have to buy a new phone! Thank you for any help in advance!

I don't think you have to make very heroic assumptions to get to $60 IV. $5 per share in earnings is equal to the $19 billion they earned this year. 12x that figure gets you to $60. This gives no credit to his belief that they'll hit $23-$24 billion, which should be a layup between winddown of legacy mortgage and growth in the int'l franchise.

Finished reading Dimon's letter. It has some great parts but it is a little too long and unfocused. On the good, Dimon is doing a real effort on trying to find a middle ground on the issue of regulation acknowledging a lot of the good. Dimon is also very specific, and it is not a laundry list, on what he does not like and sometimes is just a question of degrees. I also liked very much Dimon's reasoning on why buyback its own stock is such a good deal for JPM and, I would argue, for all the banks. His commentary on buybacks was absurd. He said that he has no interest in buying back the stock at or above $45, yet he has normalized profit pegged at $23-$24 billion or a little over $6 per share in earnings. So at $45 he's talking about a 7.5x multiple and he won't buy back the stock? Even on current earnings of $19 billion at $45 per share he would be buying in at 9x earnings. Someone needs to talk some sense in to him. In my opinion they should cut the dividend back to $0 and buyback as much stock as the gov't will allow them to do until the stock runs up ~$60 (unless they've repurchased a ton under that by the time it gets to $60, at which point this number goes higher).

Yes, but you are looking at growth in litigation relative to GDP. Look at the growth in lawyers on pg. 5. Per capita their incomes are definitely falling as there are simply too many law schools in the United States.

if he is remembered it will be as the Anti-Volker. Volker stopped inflation in it's tracks. Bernake has a lighter in his hand. Though in my mind, it appears that both have done an extraordinarily wonderful job with the hand dealt. Just imagine if Bernanke had listened to traditional fiscal conservative wisdom and opted not to pursue QE...we'd be in the proverbial dark ages as velocity of money slowed with no way to keep the stock up. Now Bernanke needs a President and a Congress that can step up and cut government entitlements for senior citizens and he may literally go down in history as an Alexander Hamilton or Jacques Necker. Really dark ages? How can you be sure? Bernake is great because he tells you exactly what he is going to do, which is mana from heaven for hedgies. Bernake is going to look foolish for saying st int rates are going to be zero through 2014. We'll see how foolish he looks. Tax Increases set to take effect next year, and a possible push by a new Republican majority to put in place some immediate austerity measures could meaningfully sink the recovery. Plus, the Fed can keep rates at 0% and increase the reserve ratio to whatever level they'd like and that will greatly dampen the number of dollars running through the system. (Holding another LTCM/AIG/CDO Squared creation constant!)

The site doesn't even clearly indicate which companies if any have signed up. Buy stocks directly with a credit card! And the federal reserve thought credit default swaps were a bad idea!!!

if he is remembered it will be as the Anti-Volker. Volker stopped inflation in it's tracks. Bernake has a lighter in his hand. Though in my mind, it appears that both have done an extraordinarily wonderful job with the hand dealt. Just imagine if Bernanke had listened to traditional fiscal conservative wisdom and opted not to pursue QE...we'd be in the proverbial dark ages as velocity of money slowed with no way to keep the stock up. Now Bernanke needs a President and a Congress that can step up and cut government entitlements for senior citizens and he may literally go down in history as an Alexander Hamilton or Jacques Necker.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/04/the-villain/8901/

http://www.bwater.com/Uploads/FileManager/research/deleveraging/an-in-depth-look-at-deleveragings--ray-dalio-bridgewater.pdf

This is about a year old but is fascinating: http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/01/ff_lottery/all/1

I have looked at SWY a number of times and know the story well. A number of questions to think about on this one: 1.) How are you determining free cash flow yield? What are you assuming for maintenance capex? SWY "overinvested" in CAPEX from 2004-2008 in order to refresh stores to their lifestyle models. By 2009 and 2010 they didn't need to do as much maintenance capex as others because the store base had been refreshed. 2.) What do you think about the fact that gross margins and operating margins fall religiously year in and year out? 3.) Referring to point #2, how much free cash flow will there be if gross margins fall another 200 bps. 4.) I agree with their current thought process in some respects on share repurchase. It certainly has a lower after tax cost than the dividend. However, the dividend is discretionary, interest payments are not. 5.) What do you believe it will cost to make up for pension shortfall overtime? 6.) What do you value Blackhawk at? These are all just questions, but the margin questions are concerning enough that I've been unwilling to put more than immaterial sums into the name. Separately, it may make sense to have SWY discussion moved to the Investment Ideas board.