Myth,
Thanks for sharing all of your thoughts. There are a few things that we are thinking about:
1. Valuations
2. Political issues
3. Diversity of revenue
4. Mix of deep water v. shallow
5. Age of fleet
6. Balance sheet
7. Buyback history
8. Margins
9. Business relationships
I think by my previous post you can see that we are focusing on the companies with the best balance sheets. I also like the fact that a few in particular have used their cash to repurchase shares and currently have open repurchases. Our hope is that management teams are using the weakness to retire some shares.
We have attempted to run multiple scenarios based on margins and loss of business. We are not of the opinion that business globally will be significantly impaired, but realize with excess product, margins could continue to be under pressure. Thinking in these terms we are still working on our range of estimates for fair value. It's most likely a situation where they will all recover similarly if and when there is more "certainty" (I always laugh at that word).
This will give us some more work to do over the holiday weekend.
Thanks again for sharing your thoughts.