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dcollon

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Posts posted by dcollon

    DaVita Thesis?

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    DaVita enters standstill agreement with Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) -- 8K

    Tuesday, May 07, 2013 08:35:55 PM (GMT)

     

     

    Pursuant to the agreement, BRK.B agreed, subject to certain exceptions and to the termination provisions specified in the Standstill agreement, not to acquire beneficial ownership of the company exceeding 25% of the company’s then-outstanding common stock, and to certain other provisions respecting stockholders meetings, mergers and other matters specified therein.

    Berkshire currently holds 14.2% of the outstanding shares of DVA according to a Form 4 filed on 4-Mar

     

    "Bullish on Community Bank Stock" - Barron's

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    This is just one analysts view, but I thought I would share it with you all.

     

    BANK M&A update to our M&A piece. There has been 3 deals since May (ex FDIC) totaling $67mm in deal value. This is on pace with prior months but still remains tame when compared to the chatter we heard at our Boston conf in February (everyone interested in buying…). Adding WIBC to ‘BUYERS’ list. Buyers list now includes BBT, CMA, FITB, MTB and USB.  Sellers List- AF, BBNK, BPFH, BSRR, EFSC, FFIC, FFKT, FFKY, FHN, FXCB, HAFC, LNBB, MCBI, OABC, ORIT, PBIB, SNV, STBZ, STEL, STL, TCBI, UCBI, YAVY. Despite the low volume of deals our Seller's list continues to outperform currently +11.9& YTD vs the KRX's 7.3% + our Buyer's list +6.1%.

    "Macro" Musings

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    gio,

     

    The conference was a lot of fun.  There are always great speakers with thoughtful presentations.  I don't want to criticize any of the presenters, but I found the best ones to be Niall Ferguson, Jeff Gundlach, David Rosenberg, Charles Gave and Kyle Bass.  I had a chance to spend some time with Kyle Bass and would tell you that he is a really funny and humble (though high conviction) guy.

     

    The biggest take away is that almost everyone there is short the yen and thinks Japan is on the brink of disaster (nothing new to the board members here).  They flip side is that some of them were playing the Japanese equity markets on the long side.  Kyle obviously thinks that's a bad idea.  There were also a few people who continue to view 30 year treasuries as compelling.  Gundlach, spent time talking about other credit as being interesting.  One suggestion was to own 30 year zero's, since if Japan "defaults/restructures" US treasuries will likely go much lower and again in Kyle's view for "not the right reason".  Rosenberg has been a treasury bull for a long time and he came out and said he is no longer a bull on treasuries.  He spent his presentation arguing why he thinks yields will not go down anymore and most likely go up.  He obviously on his own with this view.

     

    Overall, much of what was said has been posted in speeches and commentary on this board.  It was fun being able to have some individual discussions with them and it was great to spend some time in Southern California.  The weather was fantastic.  I went from 82 degrees and sunshine, with a very pessimistic group to 40 degrees and sleet/rain with a very happy group (Omaha).  Kind of funny if I think about it.

     

     

    Milken Institute 2013 Videos

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Txlaw,

     

    Thank you for posting these.  I have enjoyed them so far and now know what I will be doing for the next few days. :)

     

    Any chance their is a transcript so I can read them and get toward my 500-1000 pages per day. ;)  Just kidding (from this discussion if you don't get the joke http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/interviews-with-combs-and-weschler-in-omaha-world-herald-published-book/)

     

     

    Antifragile - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

    in Books

    Posted

    I'm about half way through the book and have enjoyed it so far.  There are some interesting parts on education and "teaching birds to fly", which I enjoyed.  I also like reading about Taleb's reading habits and how he grew up reading differently than many people do today.

     

     

    When to Sell?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    bmichaud,

     

    Good question and I wish I had the foresight to reinvest the dividends in JNJ over time.  However, I didn't.  Fortunately, though I have not taken any capital out of this account over that same time frame i.e. I have reinvested the dividends in other stocks over time. 

     

    My total return with dividends reinvested in JNJ would have been close to 2600% or roughly 14% a year.  In reality it has been closer to 2000% or roughly 13% a year.  Fortunately Bloomberg allows me to figure these things out pretty quickly. 

     

     

    When to Sell?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    When to sell is always something I struggle with as well.  If I paid a good price, I have found that it's sometimes best to never sell, which a few of you have mentioned.  However, when I'm investing in an arbitrage situation, obviously there is a time to sell.  Regardless, it's something I think most investors struggle with over time.

     

    To help me remember what can happen over time, I have one of my first investments typed up in a word document. I bought JNJ close to 25 years ago.  I would love to say I knew what I was doing then and bought it based on incredible research, but I didn't. I have continued to hold it through all these years (even added a little during certain periods of weakness) and with the current dividend of $2.44 I am receiving a 12.5% yield on my original (and largest) part of my JNJ investment. 

     

    When I go back and read my notes, it reminds me that I need to think twice before selling.

    "Macro" Musings

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    gio,

     

    I enjoyed both of those.  I have always enjoyed Crestmont's research.  I'm looking forward to attending Mauldin's conference in a few weeks since many of the people we mention on this thread will be presenting.

     

    Take care,

    David

     

    A couple of interesting Shiller PE articles

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I realize that investors on this board are not buying stock market indexes, but the reason I like race's post and the Shiller P/E is for the same reason that Mr. Buffett likes the total stock market to gnp ratio http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/04/magazines/fortune/buffett_metric.fortune/index.htm.

     

    It's not an exact science, but it gives an investor a good idea of overall market levels.  There is nothing wrong with that idea. 

     

    However, I completely agree with yours truly, in general if you are finding $0.50 dollars by all means invest regardless of what either metric shows.

     

     

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