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compoundinglife

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    Value Investor Meetup in Seattle

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Website is down for me both yesterday and today.  I can't attend, but in the future I'd like to be able to, perhaps when I have only one job!

     

    Ben

     

    Apparently my server got accidentally powered down yesterday and the web server did not come back automatically. fixed now. Thanks for the heads up.

    Value Investor Meetup in Seattle

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    How does October 16th sound for the first meetup date? That gives us about a month to have it on the schedule. I am thinking it would be around 6 or 7pm. I am setting up a way for folks to RSVP.

     

    GrizzlyRock has graciously volunteered to be a speaker for the first meeting. I am looking into recruiting a second speaker. If we have two speaker I would prefer to keep the time slots to 30 minutes each. Let me know if you have any suggestions.

    Value Investor Meetup in Seattle

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I am very interested and would be happy to host at my conference room - up 8-9 folks, if more we would need a different location.

     

    Cheers,

     

    Marc

     

    Thanks Marc. Based on the initial response I think it will be greater than 9. However I will setup and RSVP for the first meeting and we can see how many people commit.

    13-f for Q2

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Ok, new wild ass guess. Apple!  ;D Very uncharacteristic but its large enough and it is arguably cheap. Unlikely it is Apple.  But to be honest it would not surprise me at all if one or both of the Ts took a large position.

     

    I know you're kidding but I'd be happy to wager that it isn't a tech company  :D

     

    Yeah I was joking. I would not take you up on that bet :) Will be interesting to see what it is.

    13-f for Q2

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Ok, new wild ass guess. Apple!  ;D ....

    That'll be the next rumour from Huffington, Buffett spotted in NYC having dinner with Carl Icahn.  ;D

    Ha, ha.

     

    "Buffett trims WFC and KO and buys AAPL, partnering with Carl Icahn to lobby for more buybacks."

    13-f for Q2

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Ok, new wild ass guess. Apple!  ;D Very uncharacteristic but its large enough and it is arguably cheap. Unlikely it is Apple.  But to be honest it would not surprise me at all if one or both of the Ts took a large position.

    13-f for Q2

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    And this -

    "Confidential information has been omitted from the public Form 13F report and filed separately with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission."

    Can they obtain this permission even when adding to existing holdings, say when going from 1% of the shares to 10% or something, or is this only for new buys?

     

    I believe so, although i cant remember why i do...

     

    Been thinking about the missing disclosure(s) on the 13F, and i think there's a good chance it's IBM.

     

    1.)  He's bought more shares every quarter since initiating the position.  So in this Q2 13F it's rather conspicuous that he didn't add a single share even though the price is under some of his prior quarter bids.

     

    2.)  The close of day transactions on IBM stock seem to be showing vwap settlements running a little over 10% of the days trade.  IBM's buyback is good for about 6%-7%. 

     

    3.)  IBM closed Q2 weak giving him a reason to ask the regulator for confidentiality.

     

    My guess would of been DVA for some of the same reasons. I am guessing they will buy DVA in the next year or two.

     

    They're over 10% in DVA so i don't think they can get confidentiality.

     

    Ok, I did not know there were conditions around that regarding confidentiality. I would be surprised at this point if they requested confidentiality for IBM its already a huge position and they have been buying post confidentiality. AFAIK we have yet to see a confidentiality for any of Weschler's or Comb's picks and considering the size we are talking its a likely a WEB pick.

     

    Anyone know if he has ever requested confidentiality for a position they already owned? I am now guessing a new WEB holding, but no idea what :) Or maybe Ted and Todd want more DTV??

    13-f for Q2

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    And this -

    "Confidential information has been omitted from the public Form 13F report and filed separately with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission."

    Can they obtain this permission even when adding to existing holdings, say when going from 1% of the shares to 10% or something, or is this only for new buys?

     

    I believe so, although i cant remember why i do...

     

    Been thinking about the missing disclosure(s) on the 13F, and i think there's a good chance it's IBM.

     

    1.)  He's bought more shares every quarter since initiating the position.  So in this Q2 13F it's rather conspicuous that he didn't add a single share even though the price is under some of his prior quarter bids.

     

    2.)  The close of day transactions on IBM stock seem to be showing vwap settlements running a little over 10% of the days trade.  IBM's buyback is good for about 6%-7%. 

     

    3.)  IBM closed Q2 weak giving him a reason to ask the regulator for confidentiality.

     

    My guess would of been DVA for some of the same reasons. I am guessing they will buy DVA in the next year or two.

    The 400% Man!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Any glaring reasons for selling 40% of LUK stake, a position that was just opened last quarter?

     

    No idea. His partner at the fund Ben worked at LUK for a couple of years though. At least that what I remember him saying at the annual FFH/COBF dinner.

    Tax on Cumulative Dividends in Arrears

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I guess in the case of the Ford Series S Prefs, they were cumulative hybrids that paid "interest" instead of "dividends". So when they went into arrears they were treated like a zero coupon bond. It sounds like this is probably a rare case and in most situations a pref with a "dividend" in arrears, the arrearage would not be taxable until paid.

    Premier Exhibitions

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Am I crazy, or did I read something on here (maybe elsewhere) that said that Sellers was now distributing the last remaining holding of PRXI to the individual partners in his fund? I seem to remember him saying that he would be holding onto his own shares, but that this was said in a letter to his partners...

     

    For some reason I am having trouble finding it? Any clarity?

     

    June 30th the lock up is over. Letter attached.

     

    I read somewhere (can't remember where ATM) that the recent sell off could of been Greggory Schneider reducing his stake. But consider that pure speculation as I have no data to back it up.

    Sellers_Capital_Fund_Update_May_31_2013.pdf

    I Worry About "The Shot Heard Around The World"

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    My portfolio seems to be going up everyday - that is not normal. I am trying to cash out of anything that is closer to fair value and potentially not a long term hold.

     

    There could be better opportunities in the future.

     

    The odds are against the market going up even though my portfolio is cheap. Thus, my portfolio could still get hit.

     

    Also, note cash amounts:

    Buffet - $49B

    FFH - 8B or 30% and hedges

    Klarman - 30%

    Chou - is about 20% and increasing

    Berkowitz is at 30%

    and you could go on.

     

    Assets are generally inflated and thus, as a disciplined value investor one needs to pull back and accept that the market could conitnue its run just like in 1999. But could present opportunities later and the dry powder will help. Need to be patient and let the herd do its thing.

     

    I don't think there is much to read into on BRK's cash. They have tons of cash coming in and there is a finite amount of investments in the world that can mop up that cash.

     

    I am not an FFH expert but I would expect to see them grow their cash over the years regardless. Prem expressed at the annual meeting that they would love to get to the point where they have a much larger cash cushion like BRK so they don't have to worry about hedging. So over time I would expect that number to go up regardless of what is going on in the market.

     

    Berkowitz has to deal with withdrawals and was burned because of this. He needs that cash to deal with inflows and outflows. Chou is in the same boat. At the Ivey conference Chou mentioned that there is an overhead you suffer on your returns when you run mutual fund. Part of that overhead is the amount of cash he needs to keep around.

     

    I love Klarman and respect him a great deal, but I generally throw him into the too hard pile when trying to figure out what he is doing.

     

    *UPDATE: When I said Chou is the same boat as Bruce I meant with regards to running a mutual fund, not getting burned on redemptions. I don't think he suffered from that like BB did.

    I Worry About "The Shot Heard Around The World"

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Two things I have been thinking about:

     

    1. Looking at some of the stocks I own for example BAC, AAPL and AIG are they fairly valued or overvalued? I don't think so. Yet we are still seeing new market highs. Despite the gains in these positions I am not inclined to sell these positions at these prices. I think these companies will be worth much more in the years to come.

     

    2. Having recently read "The most important thing", I look at the sentiment and we are far from a "Everything will be better forever attitude".

     

    I am a macro dummy so I have to stick to what I know which are basic things like these 2 points.

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