Ballinvarosig Investors

I'm not disputing that he's not a great investor, of course he is. What I am disputing is the "Cult of Warren" that is being built up by the likes of Schroeder. While working all the hours under the sun and having a photographic memory are rare attributes to have, I refuse to believe that they're unique. Also, from what I can see, Seth Klarman is working with the same magnitude of money as Buffett and has achieved similar returns, if not better in the last two decades. If he decides to stick at investing, he's easily on course to beat Buffett.

??? Relax man, I only visit this site a few minutes each day, so you can expect me to reply instantaneously to anything that's directed at me.

My mentor is a family friend from Ireland (where I live). He started off smaller than 100k, withdrew profits as he went along, so he hasn't got anywhere near the figures you're all quoting. There's no point me mentioning his name because he's never done anything in the media and only ran money for family. He was probably lucky to have been investing during the historic 90's bull market, but then again, Buffett was also investing in a similar bull market at the start of his career. I'm sure there are plenty of people out there who no one has ever heard of who have even better records.

First of all, I have no intention of shorting any stock, let alone Amazon. You could be waiting several years for the market to correct itself and even then, the most you can ever make is 100%. Secondly, I think you guys are all basing your investing decision over criteria that's really irrelevant. I mean seriously, the available colours of the Kindle, the battery life, whether the unit is touch screen or not, etc; generally, anyone who wants an e-book reader will be buying regardless of these factors. Maybe I can put my argument more simply. Does anyone here think that Amazon can sell 6 times as many books/e-books that they're currently selling to justify the enormous price that the stock is asking? I'd like to remind you, that since 2001, it has taken 9 years for Amazon to merely double their sales. Also, considering Amazon already have 70% market share, they're going to need Americans to start reading 6 times the number of books that they currently read. Is this really going to happen?

I agree, but I'm afraid your example actually further backs my point up! The likes of Google and Apple would have far more intangible assets than Amazon, but yet they have price/book multiples of around 6. For a company to have a ratio of 16, I would be looking for the most incredible business ever. I simply don't see that here.

This veneration of Buffett as some kind of once in a lifetime, God-like Superman is really starting to grate on me. My mentor has compounded returns of 80% over a 12-year period. He didn't do anything different than Buffett either, he lived, breathed and drank investing for 12 years. Now I'm not saying that just anyone can do what Buffet can do, but it's nonsense to suggest only Buffett can do it.

When the market tanks 8% in one day, back the truck up, close your eyes and buy anything.

Some food for thought on Amazon and the book market. Insiders have been flogging shares at an incredible rate - http://www.gurufocus.com/InsiderBuy.php?symbol=AMZN. The price is trading at 17 times book value. If there is even a sniff of trouble, you're going to get wiped out. Amazon already have a 70% market share in the book market. For Amazon to trade at a fairprice, my back of the envelope calculations estimate that they need to sell 6 times the amount of books that they sell now. The digital book market was worth $80 million in 2008. I don't short stocks, but if I ever started; I would pick Amazon.

My first port of call is to check my RSS reader which I've set up to recieve SEC filing updates on various companies that I'm interested in. Not really too bothered with reading up on the macro situation. Usually look at microcap stocks and prefer blogs that get down the meaty analysis of stocks. These are blogs I particularily recommend. www.shadowstock.blogspot.com - This guy just knocks great idea after great idea out of the park. Doesn't seem to get hardly any attention, maybe because he focuses on microcap/nanocap companies. www.greenbackd.com - Not sure if there is a better site out there for liquidations/spin-off's/mergers. www.stocksbelowncav.blogspot.com - Very solid stock analysis in the true Graham style. These are also good blogs. www.unchartedstocks.com - Mostly general microcap news, but there have been a few very decent picks. www.microcapspeculator.net - Not a fan of the technical analysis/gold stuff, but there's definitely material worth reading here. www.oldschoolvalue.com - Fairly popular blog, loads of great ideas. www.manualofideas.com/blog - Same again. www.streetcapitalist.com - Mostly general news stuff, but often a few good ideas. www.stockpursuit.com - Against some gold/technical analysis stuff I'm not keen on.

12 replies and 6 people think gold is the bubble. Hmm.