Ballinvarosig Investors

Absolutely.

Hugh Hendry is another hedge fund manager who says the same thing. His November 2009 commentary is available here. I highly recommend reading it. When you think about it, what the likes of Hendry and Hoisington are suggesting is incredible. Treasury markets are already at generational lows, but yet these guys have come along and suggested that they're going to go even lower.

I'm only going by his mutual fund performance as linked to above, but that to me shows that he had no divinity what was coming in 2008/2009. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he's a bad investor. But I sure as hell wouldn't be writing a book about a crash that I didn't see coming!

I don't know what his hedge fund returned, but his mutual fund didn't perform well. http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=MUTF%3ATILFX

Three things annoy me about Whitney Tilson. 1. He seems to have repositioned himself as one of these people that foresaw the housing/credit market crash. Considering his two mutual funds tanked in 2009, I don't think he's in any position to be lecturing others about the subject. 2. He strikes me as another one of these people (and there are many) that think that Warren Buffett is simply infallible. Right before the construction market collapsed, he was touting USG (http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=3752). Now I don't have a problem with someone making a bad call, but I do have a problem with people who simply tout stocks because Warren bought them. 3. He seems to be under the misapprehension that he's a value investor. There's a few stocks in his portfolio that definitely are value stocks (dELiAs*, etc.), but most of his stuff is anything but (nothing wrong with non-value stocks, I just don't think you should be talking about yourself as a value investor unless you have most of your investments in true value stocks). I actually like Whitney Tilson anyway. Right or wrong, he puts himself out there and shares his ideas at least!

I'm intending on doing some research into Japanese stocks, however Google isn't being too helpful. Have any of you clever folks dabbled in the Japanese stock market, and if so, what resources do you use to drum up ideas? I'd be particularly interested in getting new lows lists, some sort of filter screens and any other goodies that can help you dig out bargains. Other than cursory glances at the likes of Sony, Nintendo and Toyota; I don't have the first clue about Japanese stocks, so any thoughts/tips/advice would be great. Thanks!

Up another 30% on a takeover. I love it when a stock surpasses your wildest dreams :D

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters10/pdfs/Bruce_Berkowitz_on_the_Keys_to_Success_for_the_Fairholme_Fund.pdf Surprised that this one has been missed.

Talk about taking your toys and going home :D

I don't have a problem with corporate art as long as there isn't a conflict of interest. In this case however, there's a conflict of interest so large, you could drive a bus through it! A cash strapped CEO selling his own useless maps to the company without an independent valuation is most certainly that.

Courtesy of footnoted I've never actually laughed at an SEC filing until I read this. What's even crazier is that this guy seems to be a darling of CNBC (he's been interviewed several times and Cramer thinks he's wonderful). I suppose this only serves to highlight just how important good management is! Has anyone come accross any other filing goodies?

There was a huge amount of shares (billions of dollars worth even) bought in 2005, 2006 and 2007; right before the bottom fell out of the stock market. In fairness to Lampert though, at least he didn't lose his nerve, he kept buying and averaged the cost down. The last time I looked, his average cost per share was $120, although it's probably more like $100-$110 a share since then. If Warren Buffett is an A+ for capital allocation, I would be giving Eddie a C-.

Thanks for the write-up on Clarus, valuegeek. I know Kanders has had a great record with Armor Holdings; however, he has most recently blotted his copybook with his disastrous investment in the now bankrupt Stamford Industrial Group. I'm still not too convinced on the notion of investing in what is essentially an IPO. When Clarus do make an acquisition, they will probably end up overpaying. Not only that, but history shows us that IPO and these type of acquisitions will initially tend to disappoint. I just can't help but feel that you could get a better price after the acquisition is made.

If you've been through one real estate crash; you've been through them all! I still remember the crash in London in the late 1980's and heard exactly the same reasons as you've listed as to why London property prices were justified. "Sophisticated" Japanese were on a spending rampage and would pay any amount of money for a property in London. Property in high-end areas like Mayfair was so rare that supply restriction would always ensure rising prices. London was the financial/media/fastion/etc capital of the world; the rich and famous will always want to move here. Historically low interest rates will remain low - it's a new paradigm. Despite all the old usual gobbledegook, "real" real estate prices ended up halving a decade after the peak. If property does begin to wobble, then watch the Canadian banks. Here in Ireland, we're a few years into our slump and we've watched the Irish banks going from having a total market cap of something like €150 billion to about €5 billion today (they would be zero's but only for the Irish government guaranteeing them). I doubt that things will get as bad in Canada as they did here, but any bank with a high degree of commercial real estate and rapid growth in the 2000's is a candidate for disaster.

I often see many value investors parking part of their portfolio in these sort of companies. On paper, they look like cigar butts, with stock prices often below the cash on the balance sheet and NOL's being ignored. However, in reality these companies seem to go nowhere for even decades on end, by which time the cash on the balance sheet has been flittered away. One stock I have followed is Clarus Corp. This is one example of a company that has seemed to have been around for years now, without actually using the cash on the balance sheet to make an acquistion. Each quarter Warren Kanders (the CEO) delays, the cash on balance just gets smaller and smaller and smaller. An even worse example is Ambase Corp. These guys have been a shell company for ten years now and seem happily content to pay themselves nice salaries, employ PA's and maintain a corporate HQ. It's madness that management ignore their fiduciary duty, but even crazier that shareholders don't vote them out! There are quite a few similar stocks that have done similar things over the years, and from what I can see, with disappointing results. Bexil Cadus Has anyone any thoughts on these kind of set-up's? Am I missing something?

[flash=200,200] Here's a guy who is taking the opposite side of this debate (economy to deflate - government bonds the only game in town).

A few stocks that I bought earlier this year and intend on holding Fortress International Group - FIGI Itex - ITEX Chromcraft Revington - CRC Fortunet - FNET (this stock was a great pick, it just kept giving and giving) A few stocks that I may buy at some point, the price obviously being athe determinant factor Defense Industry Intl - DFNS Southpeak Interactive - SOPK Ash Grove Cement - ASHG US One Industries - USOO AutoInfo - AUTO Signature Eyewear - SEYE Chanticleer Holdings - CCLR

Who called Buffett an "idiot" and said this was a "terrible decision"?

Considering he's now working with a multi-billion dollar hedge fund (First Eagle), he has to start taking a position and view on unGraham-like stocks.

In fairness to Greenwald, he is looking at this deal from a Grahamite perspective and from there, BNI doesn't look particularly cheap. What Greenwald needs to understand is the expectation that Buffett himself has set on Berkshire (return of 10% going forward). Like many have pointed out, at the size Berkshire is now, it's very difficult for him to find a pitch that he can knock out of the park. I think BNI will give him the return he's looking for, but anyone expecting a home run from this deal will be disappointed.

For my suggestion, the most obvious Blue Chip comparison is one that's closely tracked on this board, ITEX! Although it's a bit opposite to what you're looking for though (higher P/E but growing revenue), it looks reasonably cheap.

I've looked at SYTE before, but the issue over buying customer lists and then retaining customers bothered me. Also, I was quite concerned with the viability of this business model going forward. What also annoys me about SYTE is that it's annoyingly difficult to trade when you're dealing with tenth's of a cent! If Mr. Dash is reading this, he should start pushing the board to institute a 100-to-1 split!

http://compoundinglife.com/ This might be useful for some of you.

There was no mention of a BYD investment. It does however examine the stocks that Wesco has and concludes that DJCO may have exposure to similar stocks (primarily KO, PG, WFC).

There's a rather whithering article on Gurufocus about how overpriced Amazon is. EBay + Costco + $4bn = Amazon? As my mammy used to say, people know the price of everything; but the value of nothing ;D