Ballinvarosig Investors

Hugh Hendry is suggesting a Michael Burry-esque trade to capitalise on a Chinese slowdown by betting against Japanese shipping, banking and steel companies. I believe his short-credit strategy worked out spectacularly last year.

Wow, how did you end up meeting him? I wrote him a letter, he replied! Amazing to think what a little flattery can do.

I had the pleasure of meeting Walter; even though he didn't know me from Adam, he put up with me speaking to him for nearly an hour. All that time he was incredible warm, patient and humble, and despite his years, was still very lucid. A real gentleman, and a huge loss for all.

ITEX is not deemed reportable by virtue of the fact that it's traded OTC. The SEC maintains a list of securities that must be filed in a 13F, see this link, might be helpful in future - http://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13f/13flist2011q3.pdf

Re-post - http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/biglari-holdings-investment-portfolio-revealed/

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93859/000152153612000124/q1100370_13fhr-biglarihold.txt No surprises there!

The Greek parliament passes the Troika bailout conditions! - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9078221/Greece-passes-crucial-bailout-vote-as-country-burns.html I have to say, I thought the bolded statement from Papademos was cute considering he is an un-elected, ECB lackey.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100014697/for-greece-a-tear-for-brussels-a-blush/ http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100014720/greek-death-spiral-accelerates/ As Greece reaches a deal, the situation continues to deteriorate rapidly.

Was lucky enough to have bought BAC close to their lows, RLI and PRA have also walloped it out of the park. Other positions have gone with the market. Still holding a decent cash position and dipped into it to buy TSCO. Don't think the market is cheap, but it is an election year, the Fed balance sheet is soaring and liquidity is being pumped into the system both in America and abroad, so only a fool would take a position against national governments. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/living-in-a-qe-world/ - article is well worth reading http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/balu1.gif I await the torrent of abuse from those that say macro doesn't matter, and that "I only buy cheap stocks" 8)

I am sure they will reach a deal, and the market will probably rally. But the markets are only going to start focusing their crosshairs on Portugal, which is in need of debt forgiveness. After that, it will be Ireland, and then probably back to Greece again. In the meanwhile, you have the massive Italian and Spanish economies, are are teetering on the brink, anymore bad economic data could push them over the edge very quickly.

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Screen-shot-2012-01-26-at-09.41.39.png Considering the economy is projected to grow by just 0.8% next year, it's unsustainable for Ireland to even be paying 3% of their IMF bailout, let alone the 8% that 10 year debt is yielding currently on the bond market.

I am not surprised that Apple have had such a stonking quarter. Over Christmas, the last of my friends who didn't already own iphones (excluding those who have no interest in smartphones at all), finally converted. I would not be at all surprised to see a further pop in the short-term as the iphone continues to gain ground in emerging economies. It's amusing to see optimism for RIMM based on this. As a consumer platform (in the UK at least) users are deserting in their droves and will continue to do so. Once India and other similar countries (where RIMM are big) finally get their next-gen telecoms infrastructure whipped into shape, the iphone is going to become viable and slaughter RIMM.

The other PIGS must be fuming. Greece have been given a massive debt-writedown despite the fact that many of the structural reforms that were supposed to have been in place years ago have still not been implemented. How long will it be until the debts of Portugal and Ireland become so great that they too will start asking where are is their writedown?

They've interviewed together before. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/1011/rich-list-10-omaha-warren-buffett-jay-z-steve-forbes-summit-interview.html

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/01/02/the-seven-habits-of-spectacularly-unsuccessful-executives/

PM HarryLong, he mentioned it before to me and may know where you can get a copy.

I have been civil, so I don't understand why you are taking such a disrespectful and sarcastic tone with me. You've also decided to put a few words into my mouth to try and back your argument up, this does you a disservice. What have I said that you disagree with? That one should not keep cash on hand for opportunities? That one should not take advantage of a market sell-off driven by macro events? That one should not fish in the cheapest markets?

I agree with you Parsad. What we saw in 2008 and 2009 was likely to be a one-time, generational event. Today, there are too many folks who won't be as fearful the next time we get a crisis, and who will stand in and prevent the market from falling to those kinds of levels again. The European debate is also probably overblown at this stage. If you excuse the expression, it's a "known unknown" and the market isn't even likely to react too badly to an organized break-up of the Eurozone. Unlike some on here, I think it's madness to be fully invested in this market though. There will be surprises in the market and buying opportunities down the line. A European or Chinese bank imploding is certainly not off the cards and could cause panic. Weakness in the Chinese economy could cause the mother of all ruminations as highly-dependent emerging economies could take a pasting. Who knows when we'll get the next crisis but I will wager we won't be waiting more than 2-3 years for one, and that the folks with dry powder who are capable of holding their noses will do quite well.

I don't think so. The months following the Lehman Brothers collapse was the closest I have seen to a "Death of Equities" moment. I remember the stunned silences on CNBC as stocks continually hit new yearly-lows and later watching one acquaintance have a nervous breakdown after getting a margin call on a CFD he had taken out. Today, the market is a very different place. There is so much trash in the commanding ridiculous prices (Groupon, Salesforce, Tesla, etc.), not forgeting the mooted $100 billion Facebook floatation. You still have commodities at very high levels and even the stalwart mega-caps (PG, KO, etc.) are now looking at close to fair value. The US market certainly isn't particularly cheap on an overall level, especially when you take into consideration the usual value metric of stock market size to GDP, historic PE's and the long-term treasury yield. I think there is probably a little better value in Europe; Total, Nestle, EDF and a few other large caps are at reasonably cheap prices. There is certainly nothing to suggest a firesale anywhere at the moment. I am probably asking too much to see a return to 2008 when investors were puking their guts up and we saw real capitulation. A disorderly Euro exit, or something that would spook the markets is just what I would like to see.

Did you even bother to read anything I linked to? The two articles I mentioned are all backed up by quotes from the biggest media sources in Ireland. Richie Boucher in his capacity as head of CEO of the Retail division was personally responsible for lending billions of Euro to a variety of failed developers and companies. I don't know how much clearer I can be about this. Do you really think the reward for losing a relatively small company billions, should be a promotion? The Bank of Ireland stake is only small money in the scheme of Fairfax. However, I would prefer if Fairfax and the other dominant shareholders would push for a new, foreign CEO in Bank of Ireland, one that is untainted with the previous reckless culture of the bank. I know that Prem is no fool, so I am hoping that he is working in the background to give this company the leadership that it needs. It will certainly need it, as the NPA's are continuing to increase in the bank as the Irish economy shrinks.

Where do people get this notion that Richie Boucher (the Bank of Ireland CEO) is even remotely capable? The only reason that Bank of Ireland isn't under the control of the Irish State was because they repeatedly diluted their own stake each time Bank of Ireland were supposed to raise capital. His Wiki page is completely damning, as is this other compilation of statements he made as the bank was in the process of imploding. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richie_Boucher http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=40459 I wouldn't trust the man to make the tea, let alone manage one of the biggest banks in Ireland.

I have actually eaten at Fionn MacCool's and it was terrible, even for "pub grub". As bad as that was, the horrific pint of Guinness I had was even worse! Parsad, you've got a direct line to the top; if Prem is looking for a man to do some quality control on their Guinness, PM me 8)

Bmichaud hasn't said anything about whether stocks are cheap or expensive. He has merely shown that the scale of share buyback's isn't necessarily an indication that the market is cheap.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45387194

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/153165/prem-watsa-buys-lvlt-rimm-c-mmi-ppp-sells-kft Sandridge gets dumped heavily, Level 3 and RIM increased considerably. Small positions initiated in a miner and Motorola Mobility. Level 3 is now the third largest position, RIM the fifth largest.