Partner24
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Posts posted by Partner24
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I think I met the loyal shareholder label. I remember very well when I increased my position in 2003 (even in my kids’ portfolios) without even blinking. I had remained confident and optimistic despite the shorts, the restatements, the material weaknesses and the rest. In the last 15 years, investment in Fairfax varied but ran as high as 40% of my net worth. Over the years, some significant investments looked unusual and the Blackberry twist raised an eyebrow but I respected the long term track record and remained optimistic. The cautious approach made sense given the definition of risks that they saw.
Yes the world is changing but the change did not occur on election day.
I just cannot incorporate this presidential volte-face into an intellectually honest framework. Apologies. Maybe, I am not bright enough.
The easy thing is just to sell, which I did and will say no more.
Fairfax used to be my flagship holding and now it stands in my cigar-butt bin. Sad.
I sincerely wish them good luck.
The sun also rises.
Well said Cigarbutt.
Their underwriting have improved very significantly over the years. That's a huge gain. But investing have been mediocre over the last years. We have the opposite situation than in the lean years period. I like the underwriting, I like Fairfax India, Africa, the investments in operating businesses like Cara, etc. but their cigar butt style investing haven't been good with a huge portfolio like they have now. And the ark that they built came at a huge price...billions. I've kept most of my investment, but I'm not adding to it anymore. Me too Fairfax been 40% of my net worth or so at times, but the % is gradually decreasing.
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Here are the facts:
- Weather forecasts. They tried to predict rain. The sun shined a lot. How about building a ship that will do fairly well at both and bad times instead of predicting weather like that? Instead of trying to be wrong...wrong..wrong....right, what about ...ok if wrong or right...ok if wrong or right...ok if wrong or right...just like Berkshire and Markel?
- Cigar butts equities. Did very well when they had small to mid size money to invest. Did mediocre with a big portfolio.
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A terrific board indeed wich I have followed since 14 years now. It helped me a lot and I'm happy to have found a good "jockey" that I trust with PDH.
Cheers!
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Oh my,
Prem is still making these macro forecasts? No lesson learned from these huge losses? He's bearish when the market is low and bullish when the market is high?
For the first time in 13 years, I will seriously consider reducing or eliminating my position in FFH. I can handle a lot, but this is difficult.
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No, I am not kidding.
With the big moat and elephant businesses, I agree that it reduce the risk, but the gain is more limited.
FFH, MKL, etc. they started small. Who made them succesful? The people in it.
Same thing with PDH. I trust the jockey. I've seen him posting on this message board since 2003 and there is not a lot of people that I've learn to trust as much. It is not to say that I trust blindly, I certainly keep an eye on what's happening in the business, but I'm confident that Sanjeev will make something very good for the long haul.
Regarding the price performance to date, I don't care. I even enjoy the price decline, since I'm buying more shares these days. That's a long term investment that require patience. But since the time horizon asked is 15 years, I'm confident that the performance will be satisfactory over that period. Time will tell.
Would I put all my investments in it? No. A significant part, yes. But not all. I only have three stocks these days...MKL, PDH and FFH.
Cheers!
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I would also keep an eye on PDH.
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MKL. I bought a stock certificate in my son name for christmas when he was less than 1 year old. At 11 now, he still has it.
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I have three stocks now and I feel it is diversified enough. MKL (diversified in itself), PDH (diversified in itself) and FFH (diversified in itself).
But open to hear about some businesses like that.
Cheers!
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Sanjeev:
"You may get lucky with #1 at one point, but then you may look foolish for years afterwards when you do get it wrong...we've seen this with many, many value managers. #2 isn't exciting, but it works very well! Cheers!"
You're absolutely right. We don't care about excitement, or terrific predictive abilities, etc. What do we care about is long term value creation. I would even say that beside that, if it's boring and simple, it's even better.
Cheers!
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MKL, FFH, PDH and BRK. Good choice to me if you don't have the time available to study stocks.
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Ahahahah so funny.
I've told since the very beginnings of these hedges that they were some kind of an ark. Terrific if it rains, but we could get very thirsty if the sun would keep shining. They've predicted rain since years. Really predicted it to us over and over again.
Bad forecast.The sun have kept shining and the patient shareholders that we are are thirsty.
I knew that possibility and kept my shares. So it was MY decision.
But the main problem here is the lack of candor. So, Trump is here and you change totally the forecast because of that?
Bull**** doesn't taste good. They bought high and sold low and made economical forecast that were wrong. Billions of dollars lost. That's ok, but no turds on top of that.
Please. Let's call a cat a cat. If you don't admit your mistakes, you'll keep repeating them.
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Used to, but no alcohol anymore. Wine is good for a man when it's a woman that drink it ;)
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boilermaker, another terrific joke! You're very funny. I laughed so much. Thank you very much and please, keep posting! ;D
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Again a terrific joke! Aahahahah thank you very much! ;D
An engineer was crossing a road one day when a frog called out to him
and said, "If you kiss me, I'll turn into a beautiful princess."
He bent over, picked up the frog and put it in his pocket.
The frog spoke up again and said, "If you kiss me and turn me back
into a beautiful princess, I will stay with you for one week." The
engineer took the frog out of his pocket, smiled at it and returned
it to the pocket.
The frog then cried out, "If you kiss me and turn me back into a
princess, I'll stay with you and do ANYTHING you want."
Again the engineer took the frog out, smiled at it and put it back
into his pocket.
Finally, the frog asked, "What is the matter? I've told you I'm a
beautiful princess, I'll stay with you for a week, and do anything you
want. Why won't you kiss me?" The engineer said, "Look I'm an
engineer. I don't have time for a girlfriend, but a talking frog, now
that's cool!"
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The blind cowboy thinks for a second, shakes his head and mutters,
'No ... not if I'm gonna have to explain it five times.'
Aahahah very good. Thank you for the laugh! :)
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Soros increase his bet against US stocks
http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/17/investing/george-soros-betting-against-stocks-buy-gold/
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Ohhh the "low ego and very agreable person" who said that to your employee. That being said, when the doors were supposed to open?
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I admire what he has done so far, but this indeed seems like some "diworsification" like Peter Lynch might call it so.
Cheers!
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Grab popcorn!!
Mine is now warm and dry ;)
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Fabulous...
annual report 2013: "...these losses are significant but we consider them unrealized and expect both of them to reverse when the grand disconnect disappears-perhaps sooner than you think..."
annual report 2014: :"...these losses are significant but we consider them unrealized and expect both of them to reverse when the grand disconnect disappears-perhaps sooner than you think..."
annual report 2015: "...these losses are significant but we consider them unrealized and expect both of them to reverse when the grand disconnect disappears-perhaps sooner than you think..."
annual report 2016: "...we have warned you many times in our annual reports of the many risks that we see and the great disconnect between the markets and the economic fundamentals. These risks may be coming to a head in early 2016..."
+1
Certainly later than he tought and let us tought.
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Giverny Capital
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Wow, sincerely, I think that the first posts here must be some of the most sensible, rational and sound that I found so far online. And we're an investing board. I could not agree more with what you said.
Cheers!
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Dazel, you're right on your historical perspective.
I'm really happy if insurance operations are good now, because 12 years ago, it was the problem and investments were there to keep us alive.
Remember Peter Eavis? For those who are wondering, he's still post on the web...
Now thanks God we have good insurance operations, but buying some giant cigar butt and be pessimistic have not helped us since 2009. We are now 6 years in the making....
And Prem did that "pissing on shareholders" transaction last summer (wich I will always remember and keep in perspective). That make you wonder if you want to keep the faith. I prefer the silver medal reachers like Joffe, the Markels, Buffett and the likes, but I still keep the FFH shares for now. I'm really interested about what Sanjeev and Pabrai are doing. One day, I might sell my FFH share and replace them with shares of the company they respectively manage.
Cheers!
Cheers!
Where is the Loyalty? Where is the Support?
in Fairfax Financial
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Sanjeev, I understand the frustration. You do all this for free...with your heart and it takes both time and effort to organize this.
I've went to the FFH AGM once (almost a decade ago), I met you and some other nice folks and keep good memories of this.
Regarding the sharp drop in popularity, it's just a guess from my part, but I would not be surprised if some people are tired with what happened with FFH over the last years (multiple voting rights shares reissue, a sudden and huge change in macro forecast after an election, poor stock portfolio management, communications, etc.).
Yes, actions speak louder than words. Nearly 30% of my own investment portfolio is invested in PDH. I work hard as a small business owner and a very significant part of the dividend that I'm beginning to get is invested in PDH.
Thank you for your hard work Sanjeev.