Partner24
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Posts posted by Partner24
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On 1/6/2024 at 1:12 PM, Crip1 said:
Wow, yeah, it has been a while. i trust that all is well with you.
Yes, still holding Markel but trimmed my holdings substantially. Top 5 are: Fairfax, Fairfax India, Markel, BRK and JNJ. With the exception of Fairfax India, the other 4 were in all likelihood in my top 5 back then as well. The major change is that Fairfax is far and away my tp holding where, back then, I think it was Markel.
-Crip
Yes, I'm doing fine. Hope that things go well for you too.
Thanks for the update. I do not own MKL or FFH anymore. My oldest son had a MKL stock certificate for the 1st birthday (he's now 18), so it is what only remain of MKL in my family.
Cheers! -
11 hours ago, Crip1 said:
I was thinking the very same thing. Holders will look back on this as a frustrating time but, in a couple years, people will look back on this as being the good old days from a buying perspective.
-Crip
Hi Crip, I remember that 15 years or so ago, we had a very similar investing mindset and had similar core holdings. Are you still invested in FFH and MKL? I would be interested to get an update from you.
Cheers! -
I'm still mostly invested in very few conglomerates stocks, but lately, I've found that very small caps stocks have often more interesting valuations. It seems like there is a valuation trend on these kind of stocks:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/microcap-funds-super-cheap-big-returns-2024-95c1cd0b
Using a stock screener, I can find some interesting opportunities to dig further based on valuation (pe ratio, price to free cash flow, etc.), ROE and sound balance sheets (high liquid assets and low passive), especially in the 50 millions or less market capitalization microcaps.
Financially speaking, I'm just dipping my toes in the water, but man I see things I don't remember having seen 20 years ago when I started to invest. Or maybe it's just that the stock screeners are more sophisticated now.
Anyway, if some of you are interested to share ideas based on metrics similar to that, I'm interested to read you.
I can share some example of these, based on the metrics:
CAF.V (Canaf Investments)
FUL.O FullNet Communications)
TIE.V (Coloured Ties Capital)
ASH.AX (Ashley Services Group)
1397 (Baguio Green Group)
SFG1T (SFG1T) -
Hi there,
I'm very interested to hear about small caps value stocks that have strong balance sheets and are managed by shareholders friendly people.
The businesses that I'm invested in or follow are the following:
- Volvere PLC (very small cap conglomerate, lot of cash, cheap, stock buybacks, long term growth potential)
- Clarke Inc. (small conglomerate, price ok, long term growth potential, managed by one of the best investors in Canada)
- PDRX (very small, lot of cash, cheap)
Any other ideas or another sources of information regarding that kind of stocks (forum, blog, etc.)?
Thank you! -
Thanks for the suggestions! I agree that GHC track record over the last years is not appealing. Volvere so far seems like an interesting company. A small business with interesting potential. Management seems to be disciplined with their capital allocation decisions. Seems more like a Leucadia kind of thing (but underperforming assets, turnaround, etc.). And when the stock get low, they buyback some shares.
Regarding size, I prefer when the size is small or medium. Big size companies has to shoot elephants, they need big things to move the needle and it's difficult. In this big size category, Berkshire is great!
Danaher, what a dumb decision from me. I studied it years ago and did not invested in it. It's been a big multibagger since then. -
Hi,
It's been a while since I've posted! My portfolio is very quiet..I just hold 4 conglomerate stocks and that's it. One of them was managed by the South African Brian Joffe, one of the best investors of our times (what he has done with Bidvest is terrific). He's been the CEO of Long4life since a few years, what he has done instrinsicaly is very good, but the stock price has not reflected that. And unfortunately, it's gonna be sold and unlisted. The others conglomerate stocks that I own are Berkshire, Markel and Clarke, wich I will keep.
I would like to have some of your similar ideas. Great investors who manage a conglomerate and who have a great track record. That manage the business for the long term intrinsic value per share gain. I'm looking forward to replace Long4life with one or two conglomerate stocks.
Your ideas will be much appreciated. Cheers! -
Regarding FFH, I do not keep myself informed about it anymore, so I will not start a new poll. But feel free to do so.
Cheers!
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Sad indeed. Lesson learned about how we can sometimes be over-optimistic about value investors. And how FFH team was too scared about macro stuff for too long.
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We're 10 years later now and it's time to use your calculator! ;-)
Cheers!
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It looks like the Eye of Sauron ;-)
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Since I don't have a lot of time to spend on analyzing individual businesses, I generaly buy good diversified conglomerates managed by disciplined capital allocators. Stocks like Markel, Clarke, Long4life, etc. If you have some names to share, it would be much appreciated. Ideally businesses that are not too big so they still have large opportunities to expand. Thank you!
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Reports about coyotes in Montreal recently. One of them being sick likely attacked a small dog recently:
(in French).
Cheers!
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Good to see the candor. We're all humans. It can be tough for anybody sometimes and when someone has no candor, even in tough times, it makes me feel suspicious.
Cheers!
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Very interesting list. Thanks!
I'm actually hesitating between Clarke and Judge Scientific.
If you have other ideas, they are very welcome!
Cheers!
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Do you know some small to mid-sized holding companies that are managed by good value investors?
Thanks!
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Cardboard and Partner24,
That is what I am looking for...you are both correct. Show me the money...anger, disappointment and disbelief that investment team outside of Brian Bradstreet has been soooo bad! Fairfax needs to deserve respect and the investment team has to prove themselves. I think we all get that!
The insurance companies, the ability of Fairfax to build new insurance companies with Brian Bradstreet creating bond income over 35 years are undervalued. If Fairfax becomes simple like Markel....which I am obviously betting they are the the time to buy back is now.
If you are talking Apples to Apples compare Markel insurance to Fairfax....Fairfax underwriting has been very good for sometime.
Markel 2016 $316m and 2015$429m
Fairfax 2016 $576m and 2015$704m
Investment portfolio’s are two to one in size $40b Fairfax and $20b at Markel.
Same market cap.....Markel has done well investing and insurance has been solid...the question is will Fairfax do the same?
I am betting yes. The math is on their side as the same performance in combined ratio and investment return would be at least double the income for Fairfax over Markel at starting point from these market caps.
Iam tired of standing up for Fairfax many of the negative press is deserved!!!!Sooo good luck all...will wait for Prem to walk the walk...no more talk.
Dazel
You've done a great job Dazel and this board have done a great cheerfulness job over the years, especialy when FFH was in their bad years (Peter Eavis, naked shorts, reserves development, bad combined ratios, stock issues, etc.). Now FFH management has less support, and frankly it's well deserved. They get the reaction from their own behavior. It's more difficult to evaluate the intrinsic value of a business when you see both talk and walk changing like that, when you don't know when the top management will dilute your voting (even if shareholders say no the first time), and when you feel that the top management act more like sellers than business partners on the conference calls.
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Net Net to be clear it’s not exactly half of Markel book value premium and I am not trying bash Markel I think they are an excellent operation! it is an obvious mismatch in pricing when you look the two side by side....Unless you think Markel is that great and Fairfax is that Bad!
With Markel, what you see is what you get. Very straightforward people. Their plan is clear and they walk the talk. With FFH, you get a "Oh, Trump is elected now" kind of line for billions of dollars lost. Huge...huge lack of candor.
Remember the "we prefer to be wrong wrong...right than to be right right...wrong" kind of line that we heard for years? What a joke. Finally, it was "wrong...wrong...oh ok Trump!" kind of line. Markel was more like "we don't play that game...we don't play that game...we still don't play that game" kind of line.
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History repeating itself. Human nature at work.
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They roamed around Earth until they discovered our stock markets and realized there wasn't any intelligent life here.
My guess they left in 1999.
Ahahahahah ;)
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Dazel,
I guess it has to do with how Prem handled the situation over the last few years. They were calling for a bad economy for years and hedged and everything, then after a long bull market, they are in. Billions of dollars lost. Only main explanation: Donald Trump election. Wow...
...big lack of candor. When you're ego is so big that you can't even realize your mistakes openly, chances are in that you'll keep doing them. Ego can be a very very expensive thing that you don't see on the financial results.
They also change the multivoting shares count, shareholders are upset and want to say no, and they come back until they win.
I guess that some got pissed off by Prem's behavior. JMO.
Cheers!
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Well, for those of you who care to learn about happiness and what cause it, you may found this interesting.
"What makes a good life? Lessons from the longest study on happiness | Robert Waldinger"
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Fairfax and Markel are two businesses that are operated differently. Markel look more like the "reach the silver medal" goal oriented. Don't speculate too much on macroeconomics and focus on the business model. Conservativeness with opportunity seeking. Easier to follow as a shareholder.
Fairfax look more like the "gold medal" oriented business. More speculation on the macroeconomics. Can say one thing a year and the opposite the next one. Require more flexibility, tougher to follow as a shareholder. Can have terrific results for some years when it works, and mediocre when it don't. The road's been more volatile over the last years, but NOT better.
Long term, difficult to say. Markel is easier to predict to me. Reach for and will probably get the "silver medal". Satisfactory results, but not terrific ones. 9%-13% CAGR is a reasonable expectation to me. Fairfax is tougher to predict. Will depends more on what Prem wants and feels to cook. I guess it should do fine too...maybe better, maybe worst than Markel. May be a more volatile road, but that does not necessarely mean that it will be a better one.
From this point, time will tell.
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Ladies and gentlemen, finally, we have the answer. MKL just hit 1000$ this morning.
A very interesting graph (starting point: June 10th, 2014):
Still, I don't know what to say...I would guess it depends somewhat on what will happen with the general stock market. If it goes down, you'll likely see FFH do better on a relative basis than MKL. If it's the contrary, MKL should do better.
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Well, Fairfax been my first trade ever. In january or february 2003, I bought some shares. I was so delighted about the price that I posted the transaction receipt on my kitchen wall. At times, FFH was nearly 40% of my investment portfolio.
Now, more than 14 years later, I sold all my shares and I'm not a shareholder anymore.
Micro Caps and Buffett's >50% returns
in General Discussion
Posted
Do you know some groups of investors who invest in nanocaps and have the fundamental value investing mindset? I would like to share and dig some idea.
And if some are interesting in doing so here, we could start a post in the investment ideas section!
Interested to join?
Cheers!