CONeal
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Posts posted by CONeal
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Has nothing to do with Liberty Media but I, nevertheless, find this very interesting.
LIBERTY GLOBAL IN TALKS TO BUY VIRGIN MEDIA | Liberty Global, the cable company owned by the American billionaire John C. Malone, is in talks to buy Virgin Media, the British company said on Tuesday. Shares in Virgin Media rose almost 15 percent in early trading in London on Tuesday. The company’s enterprise value is around $19.4 billion according to data from Thomson Reuters. “The British company, whose primary listing is on Nasdaq, is the second-largest pay-TV provider in Britain after BSkyB, which is partly owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation. A potential deal for Virgin Media would put Mr. Malone head-to-head with Mr. Murdoch, his longtime rival,” DealBook’s Mark Scott writes.http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/02/05/a-deal-for-dell/
Its been announced
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And I'd almost bet all the rights are picked up. Just another way for BH to get enough shares for control.
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Looks like they want to raise $50m (from the 8k http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93859/000092189513000219/form8k07428_02052013.htm)
As to why? ...
The Company has postponed a special meeting to implement a dual class structure of its common stock and thus gain increased flexibility in structuring acquisitions and financing transactions. In the absence of a dual class structure, the Company intends to conduct a rights offering as an alternative means of financing future acquisitions or investments to augment the Company’s growth.
They probably couldn't get the votes for the dual class structure.
What happens if those that are exhausted of this company decide that they don't want to throw any more money at it, and don't subscribe to their full alottment? I wonder who is going to oversubscribe on all of those warrants, which will probably be available at a discount to book. Maybe he should just take this thing private like Dell! ;D Cheers!
I saw this and thought the same thing...
That said, everything has a price in which it is cheap.
Serious question: would you (or anyone else here) buy BH at a discount to tangible book? Say, $200/share? I would get tempted, though, would like to see it cheaper. I sold all my stock after the employment agreement, and have since discounted further since the licensing of his name... That was wholly ridiculous.
I wonder who would be interested in essentially buying 9% of the company at this price.
No, 200 might be cheap at the time but unless you can take control of the company your pissing money away. He has proven time and again, your just the fly on the windshield when it comes to his company. Each attempt is more brazen then the last. Just my .02
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I was speaking with a top salesman in heavy duty trucks at a super bowl party and he indicated that Class 8 vehicles are the oldest they have every been. Normal turnover for vehicles is 4-6 years and the average age in North America is now over 8 years. Any comments on any value plays in the space from parts companies to emission controls.
Cheers
JEast
After speeping on it, the view of normal turnover that some people state is kind of flawed. Both for person and business related vehicles. Sure the average age of a vehicle currently is higher then years past. One should keep in mind that in years past included vehicles that were not as well made. Meaning they had higher maintence cost. This changed in the late 90's by vehicles being made better. While growing up 100k was pretty much the end of a car. Now people can expect 200k miles out of a car. With the price of new cars these days would not be suprised if people stretch their vehicle out as long as possible.
2001 with 190x miles bought in 2003. It has been in the shop for repairs a total of 5 times. This would have been unheard of in the early 90's. (just my experience).
I think Class 8's would have a similar experience with the history of their reliability.
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All I can say is... about damn time
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcgraw-hill-p-sued-u-050101388.html
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PCAR
PACCAR manufactures premium commercial vehicles sold around the world under the Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF nameplates
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0% cash 20% in a situation that will be complete before May 1st. Plan on moving that to cash and suck my thumb until prices come to inline with the watch list.
0% cash 35% in special situation closing in March..I consider this as cash and move it to cash if gap closes or find a deep value
I have about 7% cash, another 8% in a special situation, and 21% in lvlt bond.
I haven't heard this argument yet so I will go out and say that S&P500 is at 1500 for the third time in 12 years and this is the right one. No big decline in sight this time.
Okay, special situation people: you must have full allocations by now, so hook us up! What looks interesting?
Sorry, I missed this comment.
My special situation is Metro PCS reverse merger to buy TMobile.
Its a very intresting special situtaion and need to start its own thread..but will provide higlights
1. I am very confident that this merger will gothru as for both parties its mandatory and without it,Its going to be difficult competing with larger comeptitiors like verizona and AT&T
2. Current price values merged company at 8Billion which is 1/2 the market cap i am expecting (Read thru the sec merger doc, PCS its very intresting reverse merger)..They will pay current shareholder $4 special dividend per share on closing of the deal and issure more stock as part of merger and the combined valuations as today price $10 taking out cash dividend is 8.2b and i think it should trade similar or more than sprint cosnidering they dont spend capex like sprint and good FCF.)
Don't consider mine as "special" as it's a drug company and seems out of scope for the board.
Navb is a drug company coming up for approval April 30th. The drug received a CRL for the drug Lymposeek back in sept. For a qc problem at the manufacturing facility. The CRL has been addressed is waiting for reinspection. The drug actually works (breast cancer) and makes not only the dr's life easier when operating on a patient but the patient also has less complications. A drug application was submitted on Europe back in nov I believe for the same drug. The EMA has already passed the manufacturing process for the drug. Estimate of fair value is $7/share only looking at Lymposeek. There are other drugs in the pipeline but not focusing on it. Having Cardinal Health as the distributor also helps with market penetration.
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Thanks for the link and info. Must have missed this one when I was combing through your site a couple of months back.
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0% cash 20% in a situation that will be complete before May 1st. Plan on moving that to cash and suck my thumb until prices come to inline with the watch list.
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also, where is your drug at in the approval process? Phase 2, Phase 3, Submitted for approval?
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I have never look at it as a % of total sales at peak. The billion number that the company gives out is bs for peak. 6 months after launch you will know if you have a drug that is actually marketable and if doctors are accepting the drug and writing scripts for it.
The new drug will need a drug code in order for it to be accepted by Medicare and Formulary. These things can not be done before approval. Most try to fit under an existing code at first.
If your drug has competition is it the best of breed? Are there benefit that your drug offers not available by other drugs on the market? doctors will keep this in mind when considering to write scripts.
A doctor has to be comfortable with what the drug does to his patients. In the first couple of months he might try it out on a few patients to see how they react before writing the script for all patients.
One very important thing to keep in mind.
The company that is selling your new drug, do they have other drugs already on the market? If not and they plan to sell the drug themselves, they have to build up a sales force. Eduction and training of the drug takes time. It's completely different to be a research company and a drug manufacture.
The biotech companies I invest in is first do I understand the drug and its benefits. I'm not the sharpest tool in the woodshed so it has to be something very easy to understand. The more complex the drug and benefits the harder it is for acceptance. There has to be a clear benefit to the drug from a doctors view.
There will be delays and rough sailing bringing a drug to market. You have to be comfortable and prepared for the setbacks. If you know your drug works and that there is a clear benefit above everything else on the market. It makes it easier to ride the rough waves. And there is sure to be several.
I do look at the total number of people affected and could use the drug.
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I normally shy away from biotech (ok, not shy away so much as avoid it like the plague). But I'm looking at a couple ideas that require me to determine peak sales for a new drug, how quickly peak sales are reached, and what sales would look like for the first 18 months after approval.
It seems that someone, somewhere ought to have compiled data on past drug introductions and the shape of the sales "curve" over time. Having trouble finding anything like that though. Any pointers?
If its a band new drug to market normally it takes 6 months to ramp up the sales process. Around 6 months you will have an idea if the drug will be successful. All the drug tracking companies use statistics to come up with their weekly numbers so they can be off. In the past I have seen drug launches where the IMS weekly script numbers were so horribley off, the difference was over 10,000%.
It's hard to look out over a year for a brand new dug b/c alot of factors come into play and really its just guess work.
If its a new generic drug coming to market. Full pentration will be achieved within 60 days. Normally its 30 days. PBM's start to dwindle down the brand name drug so that everyone needs a refill around the time the generic is expected to come to market. There is a court hearing if the generic can be sold. PBM's already have the generic on hand and within a week of court approval they are sending out letter letting people now they need to switch to the genric b/c they will not be covered for the brand drug. Generics are where the PBM's get their margins.
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People are doing things that are nothing short of insane in the world of investment properties... I hear stories where this is happening elsewhere as well. they are going to get stuck with some really bad collateral- a lot of the people buying these houses have absolutely no idea what they are buying and the eventual expenses that they will get.
Care to elaborate on the above comments?
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I've always wondered why more people were not attracted to exchanges. It's about as close to a toll bridge as you can get.
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Just to throw it out there but what are the chances Icahn throw out a bid for HLF just to burn Ackman's ass?
After that exchange I wouldn't put it past him if it's possible.
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Lmao!!!! This is incredible damn is there any word Ichan missed. Think the GD bomb shocked the reporter.
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This is awesome!!!!!
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My guilty pleasure: Big Bang Theory.
;D
+1 Over half my tv time is that show.
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20 years ago you might have bought the service .... after the break-in, & only if a lot of valuables got taken. The resultant claim ended up being way more than the deductible, & you really took the service to reduce the cost of that new higher premium. It was a derivative product.
Today a lot of the market buys the service to babysit the old folks .... especially if you/they live in different cities. They push a button & you get a text/'phone call. Effective, dirt cheap, & not reliant upon the neighbors. It has become the primary product.
..... one of those rare products that re-packaging & demographics really helps.
A few people at work set up web cams on their parents house so they can check in to make sure nothing is wrong. It's kind of creepy at first but effective.
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What would be real interesting regarding the folks above 40%, if they have track records longer than 4 years and if they got their results by not using options or leverage.
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You are also going to want to discount the appraised value for lack of control and marketability in your valuation of the gift.
Packer
What would be a legitimate discount rate that would pass the smell test?
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Thanks for the suggestions. Y'all gave me a couple of things to bring up and think about.
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I know that everyone will say consult a lawyer but trying to get a general idea of what could be done in order to ask a lawyer. This is in the US so any ideas are welcome.
A person is a 1/3rd owner in a farm and wants to pass it off to their children so if further down the road a nursing home can not go after it and to make sure it stays in the family. I am aware that the asset has to be removed from the elder for 7- 10 years before the nursing home.
How do you go about passing off the asset since the overall portion of your 3rd interest is greater then the 12k/yr gift limit?
There would not be any issue with the owners that make up 2/3rds of the partnership with it being passes off to the children.
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Does anyone use the Mergent or Hoover Manuals? Are they a good resource?
Poker
in General Discussion
Posted
While I agree overall with the thought process they are a little misleading. They may seldom bet but when they do they have a controling interest or large enough that management has to deal with them. The average retail person does not have that option.