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WEB-CM

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Everything posted by WEB-CM

  1. I was lucky enough to buy AMAG about 3 years ago - well before FFH Asia became the majority shareholder. At this time it traded below book value and had a dividend yield of about 5 %. Now they pay no dividend, the net profit is lower than it was back then and they trade at about 1.3 of book value. As they increased in the last days again I am at an unrealised profit of roughly 100%. Has anybody an idea if they are still worth holding with FFH Asia now as the majority share holder. Of course they are now not as attractive valued as they were back then. On the other hand they are not verz expensive yet if compared to some other insurers. And in general it is very difficult at the moment to find really attractive investment opportunities - not just in the US. Opinions, ideas and advices are very welcome.
  2. Thank you frog03 and oec2000 for the corrected link. Interesting - didn't know this fund. Thank's a lot for your info oec2000 - I would consider myself lucky if I had such connections. " Claire Barnes manages an Asia focused fund and should rightly be measured against an appropriate regional benchmark - she is not a global asset allocator. " That is true for both funds. Both invest in Asia ex-Japan and both have outperformed their benchmark over the years (both mostly so in the earlier years). In performance Claire Barnes was clearly superior: Target Asia (inception Sept.'96): CAGR during this timeframe + 18 % Apollo Fund (since end '97): CAGR during this timeframe + 28 % (which is for nearly the same time frame much much better!) By the way - both charge a 15 % performance fee additionaly to the management fee. While it is easy to follow the positions in the portfolio for about 50% of Teng Ngiek Lian's Target Asia Fund I have no idea how to get information about the holdings of Claire Barnes's Apollo Fund. Anybody any idea?
  3. "Claire Barnes is a terrific manager, but some of that result is from being in the hottest market over the last decade." Yes, but I think an asset allocator has the task to look for interesting markets and invest into them. These are primarily markets where the demographics are more like a tree than a cone sitting on his tip, economic policies on a trend to liberalisation instead of sozialisation, sound montetary relations instead of a debt addicted economy, ideally with the government's part of GDP decreasing, good productivity gains, relativ good purchasing power parities in international comparison and of course a market valuation below intrinsic value (whereever the asset allocator thinks it is?) as well as below more mature markets on the basis of usual metrics like P/FCF, P/E, P/S etc. Of cause the law-system and transparency must be taken into consideration as well, but not be frightend of.
  4. Hi frog03 Do you mean http://targetfunds.com.hk/ instead of www.targetfunds.com as it is just a domain name offering site?
  5. "This board is the best investing board. " Fully agree! But nothing is as good as it can't be improved. Concentrating very much on North America and Insurance.
  6. The following table shows the Net Asset Value per share for the Apollo Asia Fund Investor Shares (Class A shares) since launch at $100 at end-Nov 99, and of the predecessor Apollo 001 portfolio adjusted to the same base. At end of: NAV US$ Sep 09 915.31 Aug 09 902.93 Jul 09 888.66 Jun 09 839.13 May 09 780.24 Apr 09 666.42 Mar 09 577.39 Feb 09 568.46 Jan 09 597.14 Dec 08 615.94 Nov 08 559.84 Oct 08 584.67 Sep 08 733.65 Aug 08 806.98 Jul 08 833.40 Jun 08 865.01 May 08 900.01 Apr 08 885.72 Mar 08 847.55 Feb 08 862.10 Jan 08 822.17 Dec 07 869.77 Nov 07 852.05 Oct 07 893.22 Sep 07 880.16 Aug 07 816.53 Jul 07 829.89 Jun 07 821.99 May 07 802.28 Apr 07 797.54 Mar 07 771.07 Feb 07 757.72 Jan 07 737.75 Dec 06 740.11 Nov 06 727.04 Oct 06 691.84 Sep 06 678.42 Aug 06 682.04 Jul 06 681.88 Jun 06 668.65 May 06 684.11 Apr 06 707.40 Mar 06 675.37 Feb 06 638.17 Jan 06 608.31 Dec 05 572.53 Nov 05 556.81 Oct 05 544.11 Sep 05 545.05 Aug 05 540.74 Jul 05 535.87 Jun 05 533.73 May 05 530.23 Apr 05 533.59 Mar 05 532.62 Feb 05 542.17 Jan 05 511.96 Dec 04 498.87 Nov 04 484.56 Oct 04 466.69 Sep 04 458.05 Aug 04 431.95 Jul 04 429.74 Jun 04 415.66 May 04 410.22 Apr 04 428.39 Mar 04 455.44 Feb 04 457.14 Jan 04 438.91 Dec 03 428.92 Nov 03 403.27 Oct 03 396.90 Sep 03 334.88 Aug 03 300.34 Jul 03 256.57 Jun 03 224.66 May 03 208.66 Apr 03 183.87 Mar 03 176.45 Feb 03 179.77 Jan 03 177.06 Dec 02 177.19 Nov 02 172.09 Oct 02 168.10 Sep 02 168.26 Aug 02 172.75 Jul 02 171.47 Jun 02 169.76 May 02 174.63 Apr 02 162.31 Mar 02 159.52 Feb 02 147.81 Jan 02 141.84 Dec 01 128.56 Nov 01 124.67 Oct 01 116.30 Sep 01 114.32 Aug 01 118.35 Jul 01 112.82 Jun 01 112.30 May 01 108.07 Apr 01 95.09 Mar 01 95.41 Feb 01 98.24 Jan 01 98.02 Dec 00 95.79 Nov 00 93.83 Oct 00 96.25 Sep 00 98.09 Aug 00 104.74 Jul 00 102.99 Jun 00 102.29 May 00 100.17 Apr 00 104.30 Mar 00 108.92 Feb 00 102.91 Jan 00 104.40 Dec 99 103.86 Nov 99 100.00 Oct 99 91.83 Sep 99 90.09 Aug 99 95.99 Jul 99 95.92 Jun 99 95.21 May 99 79.47 Apr 99 70.86 Mar 99 58.65 Feb 99 58.77 Jan 99 61.18 Dec 98 63.26 Nov 98 65.90 Oct 98 52.70 Sep 98 40.76 Aug 98 33.04 Jul 98 38.09 Jun 98 43.27 May 98 50.80 Apr 98 60.55 Mar 98 65.82 Feb 98 59.62 Jan 98 34.59 Dec 97 48.21
  7. Apollo Asia Fund from Claire Barnes NAV of 915,31 USD at Sept. 30th,2009 (new ATH again) compared to 100.00 USD at Nov. 30th,1999. This performance is achieved after fees and 15 % incentive allocation! Since inception 11 years ago the NAV had a annual compound growth rate of NAV of 28 %!
  8. I thank you very much, twacowfca. Seems you have quite some knowledge/insight into this company.
  9. Does really nobody can or want to share any idea?
  10. Lancashire Holdings (listed on the London Stock Exchange) is indeed an interesting insurance company. They are active in Property, Energy, Marine and Aviation. Book value at June 30th, 2009 is 7,57 USD/share and at actual price of 5,35 Br.Pound the P/B is about 1,05. Total shareholders equity is at 1,418 Mio. USD. On the investment side they are very conservative and uninteresting (mostly fixed income with maturities below 2 years). Very interesting and impressive are the extremly low CR's and loss ratios. CR's are for period Property Energy Marine Aviation total 2006 24.8% 31.3% 54.7% 19.8% 44.3% 2007 25.9% 42.7% 76.7% 19.5% 46.3% 2008 49.6% 135.9% 81.5% 31.1% 86.3% 2009(Qu1) 81.2% 2009(Qu2) 35.4% How is it possible for a short tail insurance company to achieve such low loss ratios? Is it possible to have so little competition? Are losses so errativ that you can be ok for years and suddenly you get a loss that kills you (200% of premiums or more)? Please can someone of the board members enlighten me a little bit!
  11. Does anybody know the top ten insurance companies in the "WARD'S 50" list? RLI (superb underwriting results but clearly less so superb in investing the float) is one of them. @Partner24 and dcollon: Can you share some insights to the "Shelby C. Davis way"? Is it true that only the last chapter is about investing principles? Thank you for your contributions
  12. Interesting article from Morningstar. Can someone please explain to me why is Renaissance Re Holdings the only Reinsurer with a wide economic moat in this list of 11 reinsurers, while to all the others is just a narrow or no economic moat at all assigned? I think that is the reason Morningstar's fair value of Renaissance Re is by far the highest percentage above actual value.
  13. WEB-CM

    Dell

    Thank's a lot Grenville. But the FCF-numbers seem to be outdated. With roughly 2 billion shares a get roughly only half the Cashflow. year 05 06 07 08 09 op.CF(bln.) 5.8 4.7 3.9 3.9 1.9 not a pretty series!
  14. WEB-CM

    Dell

    Dell has positives like its possibility to operate with negative working capital and low really necessary asset base. Therefore a good RoA is easily possible, even with the low margin business. Additionaly the business provides continuosly FCF, but - is the valuation really attractive after the price decrease ?
  15. WEB-CM

    Dell

    What are the opinions about FFH making Dell its biggest equity-position beside ORH? In last 10 years the balance sheet got just more leverage, FCF didn't grow and is not very interesting compared to share price ..... WEB-CM
  16. "On a related note, Lancashire is another one that folks here should put on their quality insurer watch list... they look pretty solid to me from what I've seen (no position though)." Thank you for the hint, Ben. Indeed - very interesting company. Will continue with research about Lancashire. As far as your information status is, how would you compare Lancashire with Markel? Manfred
  17. WEB-CM

    Parsad

    I'm glad that my first contribution to this terrific board is the possibility to thank you Sanjeev for your great work (silent reader for a lot of months already)express my hope that it keeps the way it is and to wish you a happy birthday as well as health and contentment for your future. WEB-CM
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