mpauls

Tilson is a good example of how self promotion can make you a (thought to be) good investor.

Mohnish at least does his own homework. Tilson seems more worried about getting his conference attendance and newsletter subscriptions up rather than the account balances of his investors. (BTW I was at Mohnish's CA meeting.)

I've wanted to throw a shoe at him for awhile.

Sorry the link is dead. Can be found here though: http://www.globalnegotiationbook.com/John-Graham-research/negotiation-v1.pdf

**link edited** see below

http://mattpauls.com/video/Mungerwesco2011.m4a http://mattpauls.com/video/Mungerwesco_2_2011.m4a

[Audio] Morning with Charlie 7-1-11 http://t.co/LMJybE4 Part II should be up soon.

Berkshire doesn't need their equities to write insurance-their debt securities alone easily cover statutory capital requirements.

All three are average investors.

Charlie handed out 500 of these. Enjoy. http://mattpauls.com/video/MungerBoneheadia.pdf

I concede a bit of an odd-ball idea... The Greek Economic Problem: Europe cannot rationally expect to (truly) recoup borrowed funds from Greece unless such funds are used to enhance the FUTURE productive capacity of Greece. Naturally, increases in productive capacity must come from increased production of exportable goods and services. That is, ultimately, if there is to be a real repayment of European issued Debt, Greece must be able to produce and maintain a meaningful trade surplus. Any other plan will fail. High borrowing costs in Greece will drive down domestic wages, reduce inventory stock piles, and ultimately force general prices to decline. (This is already happening.) The [temporary] result would likely increase exports through an effective liquidation of Greek assets. This is not a long term solution for either Greece or Europe. Solution: (to the economic problem only) The European Union might consider providing credit (or a restructuring thereof) to Greece in the form of capital assets. Such assets of course, should be limited to, profitable, long-term capital assets producing goods exportable to the rest of the world. The majority of such exports would be ideally sold to non-EU countries, the balance could be made available to EU members at cost (below market) thereby providing those lending nations subsidies not available elsewhere. All profits would go toward paying down foreign obligations until Greece altogether eliminated their debt. Unemployment rates in Greece could then be maintained or possibly decreased. The idea is to promote economic growth guided by the EU. The profits would go back to lending nations within the EU instead of back into Greece. This also (sort-of magically) eliminates the problem of an immediate huge negative trade surplus, since in all other cases, Greece would have to borrow money (in the form of Eurobucks) to buy hard-assets with which to produce for export, but if the loan were in a hard (tangible) asset form, then immediately they would produce an immediate surplus. [i acknowledge that this is somewhat similar to accounting gimmickry and unfortunately this does nothing about the two other issues, however is the one that really matters in a fundamental sense.]

Here's an extra $10billion. http://www.scribd.com/doc/55912797/Fernbank-Letter-to-EU-OPAP-05-18-11

Thank Dah Hui Lau for this link. Chris Anderson, Editor in Chief of WIRED moderates a Q&A with Bill Gates as part of the opening session of the third annual WIRED Business Conference. http://www.thegatesnotes.com/Topics/Energy/WIRED-Business-Conference

Feel free to add historic similarities to this: 1975 Year in Review Financial Crisis Unknown Speakers (singing): "New York, New York! A helluva town! The Bronx is up, but the Battery's down! The people ride in a hole in the ground! New York, New York! It's a helluva town! Hey, everybody ï؟½ " Ed Karrens: These are the voices of thousands of New Yorkers who rallied at Time Square to give each other support and to show the country they weren't down yet. Well, the fact is, they were down, but not out. It was a money problem that hit the City in the midsection. It had none: no money to pay bills, no money to pay salaries. The City was on the brink of default, the failure to meet financial obligations. However, more than once the City was saved at the last minute. New York Mayor Abe Beam pleaded desperately to Washington and Albany for help. New York Governor Hugh Carey came up with an austerity program and created Big Mac, an agency that sells bonds for city revenue and offered over $2 billion in aid that would get the City on the track until December. But in Washington, President Ford said no to any federal help, at least not until New York showed it would revamp its fiscal system and keep its financial affairs under tight control. President Gerald Ford: "What I cannot understand, and what nobody should condone, is the blatant attempt in some quarters to frighten the American people and their Representatives in Congress into panicky support of patently bad policy. The people of this country will not be stampeded. They will not panic when a few desperate New York City officials and bankers try to scare New York's mortgage payments out of them. We've heard enough scare talk. Let's face one simple face. Most other cities in America have faced these very same challenges, and they are still financially healthy today. They have not been luckier than New York; they simply have been better managed." Ed Karrens: While the President got much support around the country for his stand, in the Big Apple sentiments were strong and in opposition. Mayor Abe Beam ... Mayor Abe Beam: "Today's speech by President Ford is nothing less than a declaration of default by the White House, a default of Presidential leadership in the face of the nation's most pressing domestic crisis. The President, in opting to do nothing to prevent the City of New York from facing the consequences of being unable to meet its debt obligations, has created a climate of crisis and confusion, which if unchanged will lead directly to a default." Ed Karrens: But changes were made. Among other things, a new tax plan promises to bring in about $200 million. Finally Ford, convinced New York was heading in the right direction, made this announcement on Thanksgiving eve ï؟½ President Gerald Ford: "As we count our Thanksgiving blessings, we recall that Americans have always believed in helping those who help themselves. New York has finally taken the tough decision it had to take to help itself. In making the required sacrifices, the people of New York have earned the encouragement of the rest of the country." Ed Karrens: With the passage of the bill by the House and the Senate, New York City got through the year, even though at times it was a real cliffhanger. New York may be a helluva town, but the more than 35,000 New Yorkers who lost their city jobs since the financial crisis began may be having second thoughts about that ï؟½ President Gerald Ford: "I must say to you that the state of the union is not good. Millions of Americans are out of work; recession and inflation are eroding the money of millions more. Prices are too high, and sales are too slow." Ed Karrens: President Ford made this gloomy announcement during his State of the Union Address in January. It was clear that the United States' economy in 1975 began where '74 left off: on a downhill slide. The gloom continued during most of the year. Unemployment reached as high as 9.2% in May. The country had its largest peacetime deficit ever, and Ford said it would be worse in coming years. To instill some new money into the system, Congress passed an anti-recession tax-cut bill in March. The bill gave individual taxpayers a minimum rebate of $100 in 1974 taxes. By the end of the year, Ford was requesting the same kind of rebate, in addition to another tax cut for '76 ï؟½ President Gerald Ford: "Tonight, I propose permanent tax reductions totaling $28 billion, the biggest single tax cut in our history. Earlier this year, the Congress passed and I signed a temporary tax cut covering calendar year 1975. That temporary law will expire at the end of this year, and unless we act now, your taxes will go up again in January. I am proposing that we sweep away that temporary law and replace it, effective January 1, with a permanent federal income-tax cut that will be both larger and more equitable." Ed Karrens: Auto dealers got into the anti-recession game by offering $200 to $500 rebates to new car buyers, and by the end of the year auto sales were looking better. In the fall, observers said the United States was recovering from the worst recession since after World War II. The recovery, however, was slower than expected, and at year's end inflation and unemployment were still at high levels. Read more: http://www.upi.com/Audio/Year_in_Review/Events-of-1975/Financial-Crisis/12305821478075-6/#ixzz1OqCj0xJj Energy Crisis If there was one other problem besides the economy which took much of the President's time in '75, it had to be the energy problem. Consumers were hit with rising prices of electricity, gas and fuel. Oil-producing nations were responsible for at least some of the increases, because so much of the oil the U.S. gets from abroad is used for energy purposes. Therefore, talks centered around having the United States work towards a day when it would not have to rely on any other nation for its energy needs; but the plan as stated by President Ford would cost $100 billion President Gerald Ford: "Frankly, we cannot wait any longer for the Congress to act on my Comprehensive Energy Program. Long-range security, jobs and energy are inseparable. The time has come for action on energy independence. Accordingly, I will ask very shortly the Congress to erase all doubt about the capacity of America to respond. I will propose an entirely new $100 billion Government corporation to work with private enterprise and labor to gain energy independence for the United States in ten years or less." "(Applause.)" Ed Karrens: An independent energy plan was fine, said most politicians; but some of them said you can't have an energy plan without a conservation plan to go with it. So if anything, 1975 was a year where there was further searching for energy policy. The fuel and energy crisis of the '70s has made the United States aware that solutions must be found and alternative systems must be investigated. In 1975, some progress toward that end may have started. Coming up next: the Middle East closer to peace; Lebanon in civil war; Franco of Spain, a dictator, dead. Read more: http://www.upi.com/Audio/Year_in_Review/Events-of-1975/Energy-Crisis/12305821478075-7/#ixzz1OqCWup2y

In this attached letter, we offer a solution, which will go a long way in helping prevent a likely Greek sovereign default. It is not a comprehensive solution, but a strong start to a daunting circumstance http://vll.me/tct

Afternoon with Charlie should be soon. --- WESCO FINANCIAL CORPORATION 301 EAST COLORADO BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, PASADENA, CALIFORNIA 91101-1901 (626) 585-6700 www.wescofinancial.com To Our Shareholders: You are cordially invited to attend a special meeting of the shareholders of Wesco Financial Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“Wesco”), to be held at the University Club of Pasadena, 175 North Oakland Avenue, Pasadena, California 91101, on Friday, June 24, 2011, at 10:00 a.m., local time. At the special meeting, you will be asked to approve the Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of February 4, 2011, by and among Berkshire Hathaway Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Berkshire”), Montana Acquisitions, LLC, a limited liability company and an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire (“Merger Sub”), and Wesco, as amended by the Amendment to Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of April 15, 2011 (the “merger agreement”), pursuant to which Wesco will be merged with and into Merger Sub (the “merger”), with Merger Sub continuing as the surviving entity. Following the merger, Wesco will cease to exist as a publicly traded company and Merger Sub will change its name to “Wesco Financial, LLC.” If the merger is completed, each share of Wesco’s common stock, par value $1.00 per share (“Wesco common stock”), will be converted into the right to receive an amount, either in cash or Class B common stock, par value $0.0033 per share, of Berkshire (“Berkshire Class B common stock”) at the election of the shareholder, equal to: (i) $386.55 (which represents Wesco’s shareholder’s equity per share as of January 31, 2011, estimated for purposes of the merger agreement), plus (ii) an earnings factor of $.98691 per share per month from and after February 1, 2011 through and including the anticipated effective time of the merger (pro rated on a daily basis for any partial month), plus (or minus, if negative) (iii) the sum of the following (expressed on a per share basis, net of taxes) for the period between February 1, 2011 and the close of business on the second full trading day prior to the date of the special meeting (the “determination date”): (a) the change (positive or negative) in net unrealized appreciation of Wesco’s investment securities, (b) the amount of net realized investment gains or losses, and © the amount of other-than-temporary impairment charges with respect to Wesco’s investment securities, minus (iv) the per share amount of cash dividends declared with respect to Wesco common stock having a record date from and after February 4, 2011 through and including the anticipated effective time of the merger, and minus (v) certain fees and expenses incurred by Wesco in connection with the transaction (expressed on a per share basis). For Wesco shareholders who elect to receive their merger consideration in shares of Berkshire Class B common stock, the exchange ratio will be based on the average of the daily volume-weighted average prices per share of Berkshire Class B common stock for the period of 20 consecutive trading days ending on the determination date. Fractional shares of Berkshire Class B common stock will not be issued in the merger; instead, cash will be paid in lieu of any fractional shares of Berkshire Class B common stock. Berkshire Class B shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the stock symbol “BRK.B.” The final per share merger consideration will be determined by Berkshire and reasonably agreed to by Wesco (acting through the special committee), and will be made publicly available through the filing of a Form 8-K by Wesco with the SEC by no later than 9:30 a.m., New York time, on the first business day following the determination date. Because of the per share merger consideration formula in the merger agreement, the per share merger consideration will not be affected by losses incurred by Wesco’s Wes-FIC insurance business, under its quota share retrocession agreement with Berkshire’s National Indemnity Company subsidiary, as a result of recent catastrophic events such as the earthquake in New Zealand and the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

It's not that great a call, but for those interested: http://mattpauls.com/info/2011/05/fairholme-conference-call-may-2011/

To the extent a position requires a specific competency, I never understood the merit of a resume. You are a very wise individual to adopt this approach and I expect you will be rewarded handsomely (given you are capable of weeding out know-nothings).

I have no opinion of his valuation. I just wanted to request someone throw a shoe at Tilson next time they see him.

I do not believe most people are qualified to discuss Keynes intelligently.

The meeting is not this weekend and has not yet been scheduled. I called Jeff Jacobson today (3-May-11) and was informed that "An afternoon with Charlie" was likely to take place after the merger was approved. A press release will be posted on WESCO's website after they set a date.

I'm going to pass this year. I haven't gained from it for several years and each year more and more know-nothings appear. There are still quite a few private events that will yield good relationships if you are interested in that sort of thing. I dislike feeling this way, but still look forward to Wesco.

Though arguably meaningless in the broader sense, I think of World GDP as roughly 5%.

http://mattpauls.com/info/2011/04/nicholas-christakis-the-hidden-influence-of-social-networks/

They missed one of note, "Spring Street Capital".