shalab

Let us do the Charlie Munger exercise in reverse (same as Bernoulli method), when and what will it take for these companies to be 50% higher than they are today. AMZN: 1500, market cap - 714 billion MSFT: 109, market cap - 850 billion FB: 240, market cap - 800 billion GOOG: 1400, market cap - 1 trillion AAPL: 220, market cap - 1.2 trillion

I would say investment income counts as it goes to line 33 of 1040

Everything is pre-tax as tax in different locations are different Looks like we have a lot of one percenters on this board

A check on how the board distribution is on income

Parsad, makes sense. I was reading the local paper and it seems the English monarchy still has a lot of influence in this part of Canada. However, it seems to me that culturally, the US influence is stronger. We had a fun experience and someone gave my 4 year old a Canada flag. We had a great experience at the park.

Baanf was very busy today. However, Jasper and yoho were quiet. One observation after seeing the cars in the park - it seemed as though people here are wealthy by holding real estate but that hasn't translated to showing off with stuff. There are different types of immigrants. I didn't see many Spanish speaking people - so curious to know if Canada has illegal immigrant problem?

Crowds look sparse compared to US parks. Glacier and Yellowstone are far more crowded anytime. I didn't know the park entrance was free this year - but it helps, would have spent $100 Canadian on park fees. The landscape is fantastic. Will checkout YoHo if there is time.

Hi guys - now taking a break in Canada in Jasper and Baanf national parks. In a visitor center, there was a big celebration of Canada day with free cakes and flags. A couple were singing and we joined the party. There was a person with a stars n stripes bandana with the red shirts. Happy Canada day and in a couple of days, happy 4th of July!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-24/buffett-bullish-on-canada-but-not-as-much-on-its-housing-globe

According to the fools, there could be even more downside to FFH https://www.fool.ca/2017/05/30/3-ways-to-play-a-reeling-fairfax-financial-holdings-ltd/

Bezos has brilliantly played the tax code and wall street to become a behemoth in retail and cloud. There have several other businesses inside AMZN which aren't as big but generate cash. Amazon will play the long game of attrition. Not very many will be left standing when this game is over. While valuing Amazon is a difficult task, it is also not clear Amazon will do as well if free shipping benefit is removed from prime. Money lost by AMZN in the past three years in shipping in billions of dollars, the last year being 2016. (4,223) (5,019) (7,191) Let us say it reaches WMT scale in retail, then it would be worth $200B. AWS could be worth another $150-200B. Let us say this is worth 200B. Total value is at 400B. If one looks at free cash flow - lease payments, it was 5.7B in 2016. (20% increase from 2015). Let us say this will grow by 30% a year for next four years - putting a multiple of 30 in 2020 for this cash flow, one gets a valuation of 490B. So, not a whole lot of upside from these price levels. MSFT case is interesting for two reasons - the CFO didnt have a prominent role during Ballmer/Gates years. Secondly, the emphasis on Non-GAAP earnings and creating a narrative to wall street. This also coincides with valueact sitting in the board - the CFO is now the second highest paid employee at MSFT. During Gates years, it was the engineering leaders, during Ballmer years, it was sales, legal and now it is finance and legal. It shows the priorities of the company in general. Now, financial engineering (some of these tactics were also used at Valeant - e.g:, the use of Non GAAP earnings, questionable cloud growth numbers etc.) and higher stock price are priority. I am surprised reputable publications like valueline take these Non GAAP earnings and apply as actual earnings. (they did for Valeant and now MSFT). The net earnings have declined from 27B (pre-tax) five years back to around 22B (pre-tax) now. However, the stock price has more than doubled thanks to this narrative. Correct. It's easy to beat your competitors on price and grow if you don't need to make a profit. For now Amazon is not a business. It's a non-profit. You're looking at it wrong. For sure I am. After all a company is not supposed to make money.

The reason GDP and stock valuations matter: 1. There is only so much money available to buy these stocks 2. There is a limited supply of stocks any given day - so short term sentiments drive up value 3. Not sure how much money is borrowed on these names - it is the PE expansion that has driven many of these names in the past two years and especially this year. e.g:, MSFT net income has been the same in the past four years but just mentioning cloud growth and non GAAP numbers have driven its valuation up. This is also reflected in the pay of the CFO who has orchestrated this message. 4. Buffett himself quoted this metric in the past and gurufocus looks at it: As of today, the Total Market Index is at $ 25105.8 billion, which is about 132.1% of the last reported GDP. The US stock market is positioned for an average annualized return of -1%, estimated from the historical valuations of the stock market. This includes the returns from the dividends, currently yielding at 1.89%. As pointed by Warren Buffett, the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the US GNP is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”

The valuation of AAPL + GOOG is close to the total GDP of Canada The valuation of AAPL + GOOG + FB + AMZN is close to the total GDP of India The valuation of AAPL + GOOG + FB + AMZN + MSFT is greater than the GDP of U.K and is 3-4 hundred billion behind Germany's GDP Do you think the market is fairly valuing or over valuing these companies at these levels?

One option for Americans though is to be a government employee - there are 22 million+ Americans employed by the government. This pays for pension and provides a steady income. http://www.usafacts.org/

Gregmal, I tend to agree with you. One difference is that many U.S companies don't invest in US Schools/education or helping the citizens, I think they do a lot more in other countries. If you look at the top employers in Canada, you will see many familiar names. http://www.canadastop100.com/national/ Many companies in the US hire from Canadian colleges as they would from U.S colleges. So in many ways - it is advantageous to be a Canadian Citizen - you have the system providing you back-up (health care, cheap education etc.), easy to get good paying jobs, if you want to move to the U.S, it is not that difficult. I think this largely lends itself to the notion that there are many people looking for a combination of an entrepreneurialish gig that provides the most personal freedom and the easiest path to supporting ones lifestyle ambitions. These types of businesses then become overpopulated, ground down, and then are no longer attractive on the original basis. Competition here is very fierce. A few examples personally- I grew up in a wealthy suburb of NYC. The kind of place were not many kids appreciate money because its never been an issue. It was always just a given that one of three things will occur largely revolving around the notion that you just end up where everyone else does(In the suburbs this means an 800k house, a wife and 2-3 kids with 3 vacations a year and a mid life crisis that gets resolved with the purchase of a sports car) 1) You use family/friend connections to get into a respectable job working for someone else 2) You get funded by family/friends to start your own venture (If I had a penny for every kid I grew up with who became a "hedge fund manager" with the help of mom+dad and a few relatives...) 3) You inherit money I've lived on my own since my mid teens and gotten to know the other side of the coin as well during that time period. I've found that the hustle required to really get to that next level seems far more common in lower-middle class raised individuals because it is the norm. When you see family and friends working 2 jobs to put food on the table, that becomes the standard. When you have to chose between a new pair of sneakers, a dinner date with a girl, or paying for a textbook, its far different than shopping with the credit card, then meeting your date at the Cheesecake Factory, and then showing up to class late. But these are two completely normal realities depending on where you are from. Which kind of delves into where some have already pointed. When you, your family, your neighborhood, etc become accustomed to certain ways of life, they become hard to break. If it is easier to secure an 80-100k job with great benefits, that will be your path of least resistance. In America, outside of the big cities, it's not easy finding jobs like that anymore(at least ones that don't require 80 hours a week and 5+ years of university). A lot of that went away with the financial crisis but the evolution of technology has also eliminated many jobs that used to support this. So many people must turn to an entrepreneurial path to provide themselves the life they want. However most traditional routes of entrepreneurship arent there anymore. Growing up(I was born in the 80's), you had family run businesses. The local deli, now replaced by Subway and Panera. The local sporting goods store, now replaced by Dick's. The local mechanic/auto body shop, now a Midas chain. Local clothing store, now a Kohl's. The local grocery store, now replaced by Stop-N-Shop. All of which are being threatened by Walmart and Amazon. So even those seeking to be entrepreneurs are given far fewer opportunities to than ever before. Its the ugly by-product of capitalism in which everything is suctioned to the top. As consolidation occurs the vortex becomes stronger and more and more carnage occurs, in an accelerating manner. Tons of people I know have tried starting their own business. Probably 70% of people I know at some point or another have tried starting a construction/landscaping business. 75% end up taking W2 jobs eventually. 15% struggle along under the constant pressure of never really being secure, and 10% seem to end up getting there through a combination of working harder than everyone else and doing things more efficiently. Although I'd argue that this 10% are the type that would make it regardless. Take 90% of the people I know who are self sufficient with their own businesses, and it's finance and real estate folks. Two industries under attack(automated investing/AI/ Zillow/internet plus massively over-regulated), and likely shrinking rapidly over the next decade as well. Which leaves whom safe? Doctors and lawyers? I personally believe much of this here in the states is because the education system is so screwed up. People are not educated in a way that directs them to areas that they can best be utilized. Canada definitely seems to have things better handled on that front. At least their university grads are not leaving school with a useless 5 year degree, 200k in debt, and the grim reality that you'll need to compete for a 55k a year job. Bottom line it seems, is that Canada has a better handle on "the system". The quality of life in CA is higher. Employment does not seem as challenging, and people seem to be put in position to provide for themselves better. Meanwhile in the grand old US of A, one is taught until their mid 20's that you can be anything you want to be, everyone gets a trophy, and then we wondering why things just dont work.The US may be more entrepreneurial but it is because more people have to be because there is now a greater social disparity between the people who have made it, and those whom haven't. Canada still seems to have a healthy middle class.

BN has the copies it looks like: http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/routines-and-orgies-christopher-risso-gill/1121014505?ean=9780773544727 Cundill is an interesting character, I am not buying it based on the feedback earlier. The title itself made it clear that it is a low ROI book.

Rb has a very valid point, i.e., an average person in Canada, Australia or even Europe is wealthier than an average American. http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/11/news/economy/middle-class-wealth/index.html The U.S offers a lot of opportunities for advancement, probably more so than most countries on the planet, but the great recession set us back significantly. In addition, many U.S companies do more to citizens of other countries (to get their business) than they do in the U.S. We need our politicians to get these companies to invest more in U.S education. (probably this will never happen as the companies lobby the politicians as it is the cheaper way out) Not at all, rb, at least not to me - I actually find these family stories here on CoBF fascinating - vey fascinating indeed. Do you mind sharing your country of origin? - From another post of yours yesterday, I get the perception, that you are of European origin - I have also noted earlier, that you actually have an extraordinary general knowledge of German business, considering that you are a Canadian citizen. Not at all John. I'm originally from Romania and my family moved here when I was in my teens. The fact that I lived and worked in London for a number of year I think broadened my horizon and understanding of things. But generally most of my knowledge of business has been acquired through boring old fashion studying.

Does Canada still give full pension to people that immigrate? ( like social security + medicare ) Name one thing that had originated in Canada in the last 50 years that people from all over the world has found useful on a daily basis (Pamela Anderson excluded). US is the center(or epicenter) of this planet. Weather its internet, google, Apple ,Uber, F16s, Mars missions, medical breakthroughs, shale ,politics , movies, this country rules the world. Immigrants understands this energy and the potential. And the ones that can't make it here go to other places. Well if you're gonna be so obnoxious... just off the top of my head the first smartphone, Canadaarm (along with a shitload of other aerospace stuff NASA used a lot), prosthetics, digital camouflage, and my personal favorite - the wonderbra. Now if you've read my post you would have picked up that US is indeed really rich because it's a developed country and it had a lot of people. For Canada to rival the US in terms of wealth it would mean that the average Canadian should have about 10 times the wealth of the average American. The size gives it a critical mass. But soon China will be "richer" than the US. Does that mean that the Chinese are "richer" than the Americans? No. Because of the size thingy.

Canada is a great country - I may immigrate there for the pension in my old age - if they still pay for people who immigrate. It has become very expensive in the last ten-twelve years - plan to do a summer trip this year to Banff national park and see how it looks like.

I have read both the books - "Of Permanent Value" is a better book overall. Snowball is targeted to the American mass audience and is not as good. Schroeder's talk (video is shared by others in this board earlier) is far more valuable IMO. Again, I don't really care to do ten levels of psycho analysis on Buffett's relationship with various folks.

Own two toyota's in the family - the first one needed major repairs but went to 175K miles. Own a nissan and toyota now. GM/Ford etc. are not bad if you want to drive 100K miles and could be quite cheap. Also GM driving experience is better than Toyota. Used a Chevy Cruise and it was great to drive.

Let us keep it simple and check federal taxes only. Adding sales tax, property tax and state income tax makes the calculation hard.

Since today was the tax day in the USA, publishing this poll to see how much each person's tax bill came to

Let us admit it - Sanjeev is a self-made multi-millionaire that owns multiple businesses. He can easily retire smoking cigars in Florida but continues to work hard. He is a bachelor but is very driven to succeed - not unlike a fella from India called Modi. What drives folks like him or what drives you that are financially independent? I think folks like UccmAl and Ericopoly are also in this budget.

My suggestion - add webcast, even Berkshire is doing it. Add a fee and many people can sign-up for FRFHF/PDH shaeholders dinner. I have a small amount of FRFHF. I don't have the time (young kids) or the few thousand $s of spare cash to spend on the event. I think it is pretty convenient to folks around Toronto though if is it is accessible by a few hours of drive.