shalab
-
Posts
1,157 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by shalab
-
-
Thanks Sanjeev! Apparently, attacks against Sokol (noted below) are launched from Alice Schroeder website. I am surprised how Alice has transitioned - from being a promising analyst that got insurance right to Warren biographer to BRK basher.
Rumors and anonymous charges against Mr. Sokol may continue, but Berkshire Hathaway shareholders are already benefiting from the dramatic restructuring he has put in place, apparently with none of the dire consequences for customer satisfaction that were predicted by former employees.
-
BRK is rebounding. From end of June till now, the SP500 has recovered about 11%. This should show up in BRK equity portfolio and reduced mark to market losses.
The interesting thing I found is that cash is up from Q1 by about 2.5 billion dollars. Sold about 2.7 billion in equities but also bought 3.2 billion in new equities. Had maturing fixed income assets but bought more.
Operating earnings are solid at around 3 billion/quarter which gives a run rate of about 12 billion a year.
Regarding the economy, looks like all indicators are up. Higher inventory, raw materials, work in process, purchased goods, manufactured goods from Dec 2009. (page 13 ). Paid higher income tax 2.3 billion compared to 1.3 billion at the same period.
Gieco is doing great again compared to 2009. ( +350 million in earnings in the first six months ). Marmon is up, Mclane is down, other businesses are up ( what 300%? ). BNI is up compared to 2009 and the price paid is already looking reasonable and it might look like a bargain in a few years.
cheers!
Shalab
-
The way Sonic works is, there is a small box of a restaurant and on the left and right sides are parking spaces. About 8-10 per side. You pull into the parking space and on your left will be a menu board. When you wish to order, you press a button on the menu board and give your order. Someone comes out with your food, you pay them, and usually leave - some people stay and eat in their cars.
Can some one decipher why is this a good investment?
-
The biography of Doris Buffett "Giving it All Away: The Doris Buffett Story" - is fascinating and easy to read. I give this book higher marks than snowball.
-
Not really - if you are worried about price volatility. Also, if the company liquidates, bond holders will come first.
-
I don't get this entirely. The debt is pretty high. The cash flow is good and many are franchises. The directors/owners own 10% of the company.
-
>I continue to regard this market as extremely dangerous. It could seize up at any time. All is needed is a small unforeseen event and they happen much more often than we expect.
Generally speaking the stocks are not as cheap as they were in March 09 but then they are not as expensive as in 2003 or as in 2007. Volatility is a friend of the value investor and some people will make a killing in this environment.
-
Buy cheap, with a margin of safety, and into things you are comfortable holding for years
A man by the name of Warren E Buffett has done this for fifty+ years without hedging. He has been called a lot of things in between but the guy keeps it simple and follows his rules.
-
Interesting that the quarterly earning estimate has dropped. Looks like the article has definitely helped.
I think the odds of a large fine are good and the company may not be barred entirely. Especially that all companies in this segment are being inspected. That said - I don't think this story isn't done yet and it definitely is not like the american express problem of the sixities or the FFH case.
http://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSJ_PUB:SB10001424052748703834604575365012065133250.html
-
So dividends allow you to regularly extract full intrinsic value from your investments like clockwork. A value investor should enjoy that aspect of it. Isn't the whole point to purchase shares below intrinsic value and then realize full intrinsic value from your investments?
Indeed, with dividend investments like KO, JNJ, PG, KFT; it allows the insurance players to get paid while holding their capital. I like that FRFHF is paying a dividend - since most of my FRFHF is in retirement accounts, it doesnt affect me with taxes and also allows me to reinvest the capital in other things.
-
but a medium length record using an A+ process may be a stroke indicator of future success.
The key here is "may be". A lot of investment managers stumble at different levels of capital. So what one can do with 1 million is different than what one can do with 100 million. Managing 100 million is different than managing a billion not to speak tens of billions.
-
According to the article, Lu's fund originally had a total of $150M in investment assets. He put $40M into BYD, which would be worth $400M today. The fund's value today is $600M, meaning that the original non-BYD capital ($150M-$40M = $110M) is now worth ($600M-$400M = $200M). That's a return of 81.8% over six years (mid-2004 to mid-2010), or 10.5% annualized on non-BYD assets.
Again, the return is the return, but I would prefer a longer track record for someone who is going to handle billions and billions at Berkshire. Cheers!
Would have to agree with this one. It is smart to piggy back on one company but the greatness of Buffett is that he built his empire on multiple bets over a period of time.
-
I don't disagree with what Sanj has said in the least - but Cardboard's point has merit as well. If the US and indeed the entire world is headed into a second slowdown while the market is busy projecting 15 to 20% earnings growth for next year, then the market is going to be disappointed isn't it when reality sets in.
India is growing at close to 10%. China is having inflation issues too - so much so that some production from China (textiles, furniture, auto components) is moving to other countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam and India.
The corporate balance sheets are pretty good as is the balance sheet of small business. The refusal of banks to lend has caused the businesses to tighten the belt and they are willing to hire again. The hiring wont happen fast enough to reduce unemployment significantly. Generally, there is no sign of slow down in business in the US compared to an year earlier. Check the rail stocks if you need confirmation.
If there is slowdown, it is an opportunity to make more money.
cheers!
shalab
-
While I don't like what Sardar and the board did, I think your friend's opinion may be a bit extreme.
It was just an opinion of Sardar's character - not that it would happen to Sardar. He asked me if I knew about Sardar's lifestyle, at that time I didnt know. Some checking showed that he does have lavish tastes. I think my friend gauged Sardar's character more accurately than I did at the time.
I think Sardar is capable - a good operator and a decent ( but not in the Buffett league ) capital allocator. He will have issues attracting quality people ( people who have the character and skill ) to work for him given that he follows one rule and expects everyone else to follow another one. It will never scale like BRK for this reason alone.
I would discount everything Sardar speaks/writes and just look at the numbers with discount to cash flow and Sardar compensation - one would be foolish not to do otherwise. The SNS brand is strong, talked to a friend of mine from Indiana - he still has fond memories of visiting SNS stores with his grand parents.
-
A friend of mine who is a businessman said of Biglari - he will be very confident in his talk and won't mind if he ends up in jail. He said this before the name change and the compensation package came out.
-
>IMO - both Fremont and Biglari have top management that only care about their own skins. No other way to slice it. Both disgraceful.
I think Biglari cares about himself more than other managements I have seen.
-
I am reading Prem Jain book on BRK. It is interesting to note the KO buy. BRK invested 1 billion into KO and now gets about 350 million/year in dividends. This is pretty good as the growth in dividends will continue to increase at KO with continued share buyback.
-
Started reading "Buffett beyond Value" by Prem Jain. Easy to read and digest - the author has provided some good analysis of Buffett methods.
-
I read the proxy - there is nothing there to defend Biglari in there. Very disappointing to say the least.
-
Biglari is set to make good money once this passes. SNS book value increased from $23/share in 1994 to $215 in 2007. A compound rate of 18.75% Biglari doesnt have to do much to earn good compensation.
-
This article was in NY Times yesterday. Microsoft can't give up on smartphones or tablets. There is a convergence of form factors going on. WSJ said in an article that upto 30% of all devices ( of pc form factor ) sold would be tablets by 2015.
Ignoring this trend will take a large chunk of their business away from them over time. They need to be present in the market.
Microsoft's recent efficiencies have come from cost reduction, there may have to be more of that in the future.
-
The other interesting thing is how much Amazon and other online retailers can take market share from traditional retailers. Amazon has a service called "Amazon Fresh" which allows online grocery shopping in select zip codes.
-
Thank you for sharing thr analysis. I think you have done an excellent analysis of competitive advantages and the economy of scale. I think the numbers are slightly off ( especially EPS, # of shares outstanding in 2011 ) which makes your estimate conservative.
-
Eric, per the withholding calculator in http://www.irs.gov, I get a tax rate of 11.9% federal tax for 50K income without any deductions like IRA, 401k etc. The FICA taxes will apply.
BH Special Meeting Delayed!
in General Discussion
Posted
I came across this news release which looks very similar to the one Biglari was putting out to oust managements at Friendly, SNS and FMMH.
CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--As a 2.5% shareholder of Biglari Holdings (BH), formerly The Steak N Shake Company, Oak Street announced today that it intends to vote AGAINST approval of the Incentive Bonus Agreement between Biglari Holdings and Mr. Biglari, the company’s CEO, at the upcoming special shareholder meeting scheduled for August 24, 2010.
Oak Street opposes this attempt to redistribute shareholder wealth to Mr. Biglari. Oak Street is concerned that the proposed incentive compensation scheme fails to align Mr. Biglari’s interests with the interests of company shareholders. Book value increases are not always tantamount to shareholder value creation. We believe shareholders would prefer that Mr. Biglari’s remuneration be directly tied to share price performance in order to ensure that shareholders and Mr. Biglari benefit in concert.
An Oak Street spokesman stated “This unusual compensation scheme creates potential conflicts whereby Mr. Biglari could enrich himself at the expense of other shareholders. We are concerned that Mr. Biglari and the board are not acting in the best interest of all shareholders and we condemn the Board for this potential governance failure. We believe Mr. Biglari’s proposal has resulted in a significant loss of shareholder wealth already, as evidenced by the $100 share price decline since the compensation scheme was proposed on April 30, 2010. We intend to rigorously defend our interests as shareholders.”
I still doubt Biglari would be postponing the shareholder vote if he was winning - definitely there was no need for a modified proxy.