shalab
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Posts posted by shalab
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Interesting article with quotes from Puggy Pearson
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cca24b14-f721-11df-9b06-00144feab49a.html#axzz16VXOxSIV
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Let us use this thread to discuss the tax strategies to reduce the bill to Uncle Sam or other governments as the case might be. The US has the issue where the tax rates are likely to go up next year.
What strategies do you use here?
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The owner of the Pittsburgh Penguins is none other than...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Pittsburgh_Penguins_owners
You guessed it, it is Lemieux Group LP!
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Let us do this poll over thanksgiving ( for US based members). The rate of return for equities for the next ten years generally speaking is not very bright. The expected rate of growth is 1% in Europe, 2% in the US and 6% in Asia. Since we are in a cyclical bear market, the one that lasts roughly 20 years, it is unlikely the market will see major upward swing anytime soon.
However this group is also unique. We are not dependent on market indices to determine our future. We identify good businesses and allocate capital to the best ideas.
So get the vote going and let us see where we land.
cheers!
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Let us do a poll on how much money we carry in our account as cash. This should also help us gauge the general situation with the highly qualified folks in this group.
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Looks like the kinect effect is helping xbox, but international sales are up in the air...
http://www.techflash.com/seattle/2010/11/microsofts-xbox-360-leads-us.html
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Reached 1 million mark today and on target to reach 5 million by end of the year.
http://www.techflash.com/seattle/2010/11/microsoft-10-days-1m-kinects.html#disqus_thread
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It has been said that the savings rate of the US public as a whole has been negative and has recently changed to +6%. In this poll, let us figure out how much of our income we save and see how we compare to the Japanese/Chinese people.
e.g: if one earns $50,000 a year in the U.S, 7.4% will go to FICA, another percentage will go to state and federal income taxes and some for living expenditures and remaining will be saved. So, if one is able to save 5,000 dollars after all expenses, the savings rate is 10%. This includes contributions to retirement accounts 401(k), IRA etc. but doesnt include employer matching to the 401(k), IRA.
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One has to add these companies to the "Accidental Empires" list. Yahoo! founders made a lot of people wealthy and contributed to the US economy - think Dallas Mavericks ;D
That said, the founder(s) or the current management has no clue how to run Yahoo! You can see deterioration in every service owned by Yahoo! When Semel/Yang were around, they cared to improve their services, now even that isnt happening.
Paul Graham essay is right but it is also wrong. A lot of companies and individuals lose their way because they dont know how to reinvest their capital to bear better results. Whenever I read about Buffett/Munger, the thing that impresses me is how deeply these folks have thought about business, human psychology and permanent value. Andy Kilpatrick's "Of Permanent Value" is named appropriately.
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MSFT is cheap, has a monopoly, and an ok Moat, but its foolish to think they are guaranteed to always be around in the PC space, or that they are for sure to be around in the same capacity in 2020 / 2025. Big blue probably had great cash flows and profits for a while while Apple and Microsoft dominated the "mindshare" With that said I think investors now will make money.
Microsoft will be around in 2020/2025 but you are right, it may not be in the same capacity. Microsoft's US market share has dropped a bit to 89% but world wide, it still commands 94% of the market. Microsoft has lost 6% market share in the US to Apple in ten years. Even at an accelerated pace, don't see Microsoft going out of business by 2020.
The PC market is still expanding at a healthy double digit pace world wide. Also, Microsoft is reducing bloat and there is room to cut more fat.
The only way I'd become interested in Microsoft again is if Gates returns as CEO
Nothing is going to change if Gate returns.
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MSFT could be like Lotus in 10 years!
It is comments like these without numbers to back it up that is driving the stock price. While the mind share is taken up by the likes of Google, Facebook and Apple, Microsoft continues to increase cash flow and profits.
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All the while, they don't want short positions to be made public above a certain level. It is very easy to write a blog or create a rumor to push the stock down - e.g: FFH.
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BRK is clearly doing well and will always do well under da man, but the valuation is the issue for me. Not that it is expensive, I just think other things will go up more/faster.
Hi Bronco - can you name a few companies in your stable of holdings that you think will go up faster?
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We all admire the investing prowess of Hamblin Watsa and majority of us have made money in FFH. Let us do a poll to see what percentage of everyones portfolio is in FFH. I would have done a similar one for BH but I dont own BH in any shape or form now.
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Per the Q3 report, ~500 million in new investment in WFC.
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The last time companies got home about 300B. Doesnt look like Barron did adequate research for the article which isnt surprising.
http://www2.lcb.uoregon.edu/App_Themes/Content/Docs/sac/Krull_Article.pdf
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Yeah, if this happens, it won't be peanuts. It could be $500B - 1Trillion of cash coming into the U.S.
Seems a bit too high and optimistic. The total cash on all SP500 companies balance sheet is about 1 trillion but they derive a good portion of their income from north america. The interest rates are higher elsewhere compared to the US so why should the money be repatriated unless it is needed for capital investment or paying dividends in the U.S?
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How is China ganna buy more. They make peanuts in purchasing power and we dont excel at making cheap crap. They have to let the currency rise to increase purchasing power, but that kills their competitive advantage. Its a tight rope.
It is not.
The recent airbus order - China could buy Boeings instead of Airbus.
Recent drop in export of US poultry to China - shouldnt have happened
Microsoft makes more money in India whose economy is 1/4th the size of China. Why is this the case? I bet it is the case with many US multinationals too.
When CNBC asked Ratan Tata a couple of years back about moving Tata manufacturing to China, he said "he doesnt understand china". They tried to prod him more but he just ducked the question.
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You may be right about more of the same - it makes no sense to change strategies when stonewalling has been successful. I believe one of the tea party slogans was the huge deficits - it will be interesting to see what they do now they control one arm of congress.
The US currency policy with China ( and previously Japan ) was/is not very smart - instead of encouraging China to buy more US goods/services, they are asking China to appreciate its currency. I remember Charlie Munger raising this issue with Ronald Reagan's secretary of state ( in Poor Charlie Alamanac ) and the guy didnt want to deal with it. So this is a problem in the making for more than a generation...
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Generally speaking - I think the elections turned out fine. The tea party people got some press and some seats - rightly so. I like the balance - one chamber with one party and the other with another. The US system is designed pretty well - I must add.
The message got across to Mr President and the congressional leaders about the problems people are facing - we hope.
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I think company's are setup elsewhere that do this kind of thing.
e.g: Ratan Tata of Tata group of companies mentioned in CNBC that Tata is similar to Berkshire.
Remember This Article - How Sleazy is CNBC Really?
in General Discussion
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How sleazy and corrupt is CNBC?
I dont watch CNBC anymore - it is a show and they need to attract people to watch them. Recently, I saw the Tepper interview and it was not very impressive. I do think that Becky Quick appears somewhat ok compared to the others.
I dont know why Buffett appears on CNBC but I will cut him some slack - the guy is 80 years old, has paid his dues to society and I like listening to him. I hope he continues to run BRK for another ten years or longer. The other day, we visited a family friend who is 77 and is in an adult home, he is suffering from dementia - he can barely recognize his own family members. If I can retain my faculties like Buffett at 80, I will be very happy.