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At some point wouldn't this make a great subject for Fifth Estate, W5, 60 Minutes, Dateline, etc unless it becomes too complicated for them, but it has a great story line with all the intrigue of any novel. In fact there is more in this than in a lot of movies like Wall Street, etc. So for a movie, anyone want to suggest who we would cast as Prem, etc? I think that there are so many villains here we could employ half the bad guys in Hollywood. And I think we could even find a place for Charlie Sheen.

Like many here I have been following this since day one. Some of the events that have come to light surrounding this case are so unbelievable, so over the top, that if these events were contained in a work of fiction it would have been regarded as completely unrealistic. Seems there is just one preposterous thing after another. Who were these people? How could people in responsible positions get away with so much for so long? This is going to make a very interesting book some day. From manipulation of the markets to the cloak and dagger stuff and the outrageous, unfounded claims made against Prem and Fairfax it is difficult to believe that it has taken so long for the truth to come out. Stay tuned.

As for favourite board members there are many, but everyone’s input is important. I personally find the value of this board really comes to the surface when there are disagreements that contrast the positives and negatives of the subject at hand. All too often I can develop a bit of tunnel vision on a subject or a company and it helps to have a wake up call now and again that reminds me that there are two sides of the subject. I also appreciate some of the witty remarks that appear now and again. (as above)

I don’t see why FBK management would want to sell the profitable side of an operation which has decent upside potential become more profitable through lower priced wood chips, increasing NBSK prices and power generation. Why sell that and keep the dubious business of producing RBK? Sure, I can see some potential for the US plants but why exchange a longshot for a relatively sure thing? Additionally and on the subject of the staff, sure the workers would stay in Quebec but is senior management prepared to pull up stakes and move to the US to run what’s left of the company? It just doesn’t seem to add up imho. Personally, I don’t think management has any intention of selling the company. If an approach comes from outside or they receive pressure from shareholders than that is a different situation but until something like that occurs it is what it is.

Clearly the general consensus of this board that FBK should be sold and new management should take over. However, this is a decision that presently lies in the hands of present management and it is very unlikely that they have any interest in essentially firing themselves. Therefore the impetus for a sale would likely have to come from shareholders. So how does that happen? Probably Fairfax could initiate that if they wanted, but is there enough advantage to FFH for them to do this at this point? So who, other than FFH, are the major shareholders? FFH holds something like 26% so there is another 74% of the shares out there. Members of this board probably hold a a good number of shares, but likely insignificant in the overall scheme of things. However we are shareholders and there are likely other shareholders out there who also think that the status quo is not ideal. So what, if anything, can we as shareholders do to try and prcipitate a sale of FBK or parts of FBK? Of course the other scenario is that another company may initiate a purchase, but the leading contender for that would be Abitibi and that brings us back to FFH again. It seems that FBK has the basis of a good operation and a lot of potential, but in this business it lacks the advantages and the economies of scale that a merger or acquisition could bring. I am just thinking out loud here but timing is important. We have high expectations every quarter but there always seems that something comes out of left field to adversely effect profits. Hopefully, in the next quarter the stars will have aligned and we will see a good report with no “one time only” problems. When that occurs it would be the ideal time to put this company on the market. But if something doesn’t happen in the next few quarters an opportunity may well be lost.

You know, given the two downgrades and the fact that the numbers don't look all that good on the surface, I can't say that I'm terribly disappointed that the stock right now is only down a dime. Yes it certainly would have been nice to see a big jump but $1.45 would have looked pretty good a couple of months ago. I think we just have to be patient. I don't know if any of you guys have a combination of FBK, FFH, and HF but it certainly is a test of my patience. I am looking longer term but there are days.... Has anyone figured out why anyone would release a downgrade just hours before the results? I assume it would be illegal for them to have access to the results prior to release so why would they choose that timing that would raise the question in some people's mind? I just can't get my mind around that.

"I am more concerned as they have been right before." Agreed. I can't really believe that they would be dumb enough to downgrade them just hours before the release if they didn't know something. But on the other hand isn't it a little odd to downgrade them at the same time as they raise the target price?

Darn good question Watcher. Since they could not have prior access to the results perhaps they have a crystal ball. This doesn't even look good. I mean, if you weren't absolutely sure of the results why would you take the chance of looking like idiots if the results were different? I mean what's the downside of waiting a few hours? I just don't understand the timing. There are a lot of knowledgable shareholders on this board who have done a lot of research on FBK and it makes one uncomfortable to think that Scotia and Dundee know so much more than the shareholders. On the other hand these guys have been off before.

Well, well, well. I am now starting to believe that FBK management are perhaps following this board. Seems their new website has been revamped and I received a news item today titled "Why invest in Fibrek?" Haven't had a chance to look at this yet but it seems that they may be doing something to promote the company at last. This is certainly a step in the right direction. Suppose the upcoming AGM precipitated this but at least they are doing something in the PR area. http://www.sfkpulp.com/en/investors/why-invest/

Thank you Sanjeev and also to all the other members of this board for their very valuable and intelligent insights into investing. In the four years or so that I have been following this board and its predecessor I have learned a lot. During those ugly days when we saw the bottom fall out of the market and bad news day after day, this board helped me keep things in perspective. While I don't pretend to have near the expertise that many board members do, I find that reading the posts tends to shape ones way of thinking and combining that with a little common sense certainly has made me a better investor. I check the board numerous times a day, every day and more than anything I value the different points of views that are shared here.

I hope these aren't dumb questions, but since no one else has mentioned this perhaps someone could enlighten me. NBSK prices are updated weekly on FOREX and Paper Age, and every move in price has an effect on the value of FBK as does the price of wood chips. But if something like 50% of FBK's output is involved with RBK it certainly would be nice to be able to access RBK prices. 1) Doesn't RBK price fluctuate as well? 2) If so, is there anywhere we can go to follow RBK pricing - and perhaps the prices of waste paper as well? 3) Even if prices aren't set weekly, how often does the price change? Has it changed recently? One would assume that there must be some correlation between RBK prices and other pulp products since it is a substitute. Is there some sort of ration uses between RBK price and say NBSK? Anytime I Google RBK, FBK's name comes up. Is that because they are the only ones producing RBK in any quantity? Thanks

Geez guys, ya know it seems that whenever someone does real well there always some people that tend to focus on any negatives they can find. Guess that’s just human nature, but how many of us were perfect when we were Crosby’s age? Give him a chance to mature a bit and see how he measures up. I would hate to be held accountable for everything I did in my early 20's. By the way there are reports of another 15 year old (Nathan MacKinnon) following in Crosbys footsteps coming out of Crosby's home town in Nova Scotia.

annual results.... LONGUEUIL, QC, Feb. 8 /CNW Telbec/ - Fibrek (Toronto:FBK.TO) will release its 2010 fourth quarter and annual results after market hours on Wednesday, February 23, 2011. President and Chief Executive Officer, Pierre Gabriel Côté, and Patsie Ducharme, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will host a conference call on Thursday, February 24, 2011 at 10:00 a.m. (Eastern Time) to discuss financial results. Members of the financial community will be able to access the conference call and ask questions. Media representatives may attend as listeners only. OPEN TO: Analysts, investors and all interested parties DATE: Thursday, February 24, 2011 TIME: 10:00 a.m. (Eastern Time) CALL: 416-644-3425 (FOR ALL TORONTO AND OVERSEAS PARTICIPANTS) 1-877-974-0445, access code 4404338# (FOR ALL OTHER NORTH AMERICAN CALLS) Please dial-in 15 minutes before the conference call begins. Participants not able to listen to the live call can access a replay of the archived call by calling 1-877-289-8525, access code 4404338#. The replay will be available from Thursday, February 24, 2011, 1 p.m. until Thursday, March 3rd, 2011, 11:59 p.m.

RBC used to provide Level 2 live quotes but now you have to be a frequent trader to access them. It is certainly a disadvantage not to have the Level 2 info. Pulp price did not move today.

'Jolting' drop in sales means paper industry 'must adapt' Says Andre Bernier, chairman of the Pulp and Paper Technical Association of Canada (Former CEO of SFK/FBK) now a productivity expert with Catalyst Paper Corp. in Vancouver. http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Jolting+drop+sales+means+paper+industry+must+adapt/4208545/story.html No doubt what he says is true regarding newsprint but it seems that in business and in home use computers have a tendency to produce prodigious quantities of paper. Also, does he factor in the increasing demand for paper in developing countries?

FFHwatcher, Unfortunately I have held shares in several other companies where share prices were obviously manipulated and/or the companies involved were grossly mismanaged. So perhaps I tend to be overly suspicious. I have held shares in SFK/FBK for three or four years now and I haven’t seen a lot that has really impressed me. Yes, they avoided bankruptcy but so have others in the industry. I have seen very little effort put into promoting their company in any way. Why is that? Why did FBK’s share prices not increase to the same extent as some of their competitors? What steps have they taken to promote this company? Suppose a takeover deal has been in the works for some time involving ABH. Obviously it would be in ABH’s best interests to start with a low FBK share price. As far as FFH is concerned it may matter little where FBK’s share price sits but the less that ABH pays for FBK the better off and the healthier ABH would be going forward and that would be in FFH’s best interests, so I don’t see much incentive for FFH to do anything to pressure FBK to be more proactive in marketing themselves better. As far as management’s personal options are concerned, what exactly did they do, or what is expected of them to earn those options? If you had those options wouldn’t you be doing everything in your power to escalate investor awareness of this company and increase share prices? I would be doing everything I could to promote and polish the company’s image and make the company more attractive to investors. I would be putting out frequent news releases reminding the public of all the great things we were doing, I would have had a glossy website promoting all aspects of the company and featuring frequent updates for shareholders and potential investors. What about some publicity on the progress they are making on the power generation front - there is a web page in itself. I might even throw a few dollars at some ads to increase public awareness of my company and how it is a leader in the “green” movement with the power generation and the RBK plants. Perhaps I might look at a small dividend to show that this company is getting its act together and spur investor interest. Once you have elevated investor awareness and have positioned yourself where you have started to attract more attention, then if takeover talks start you are in a much better position to start a bidding war, rather than a passive takeover by a related company. Never underestimate the power of image and perception.

“...maybe they already know who will buy them and are not interested in marketing themselves...” “I think a deal is done in terms of a high level agreement. I think all the key players know how this will play out, and investor relations is kind of a waste of time at this point.” I think Alekbaylee & Myth are probably right on the mark. Why waste time and money on marketing and PR when you already know the company will be undergoing a major transformation in the future, likely with ABH and with FFH’s blessings. But if that is the case would it not be in those three parties own best interests to keep share price low?

Nonub re "...in what sense do you find the current www.fibrek.ca website non-functional today?" Okay, it's barely functional but does little or nothing to describe or promote the company. The old SFK site was reasonably well done with seperate pages devoted to each of their plants with photos and detailed discriptions of their operations. Even if they had simply changed the name from SFK to Fibrek on the old site it would be better than what they have now. The website may be a relatively small thing, but the lack of attention to it seems to indicate a lack of interest in promoting their company. The very limited info on the site can be found anywhere and they even admit the site is unfinished where they say... "Sign up to be advised of the launch of our new website" One would think that when they converted nearly a year ago they would have had the new site ready to roll. Yes, its a small thing, but in this era not having a decent website is like not bothering to put up a sign outside your opperations telling who you are. If you are proud of your company and want to promote it shouldn't you show it? It should be a very interesting AGM this year.

I probably don’t have a huge number of shares compared to some, but you can count me in on that as well. I too am uneasy to see management with all that cash on hand. I am also concerned about where management’s loyalties lie when they don’t seem to have a lot of shares in their own company. (But didn’t they get options back a while ago at $1.50 or something?) Then there is management's apparent lack of marketing ability as evidenced by their “website”. Conversion from SFK to Fibrek did not happen overnight, yet it took about six months after conversion before they were able to launch a website - and it still isn’t functional today. With zero web development skills or experience, I was able to create a site of my own in a matter of a few days ( www.SundancePEI.com ). If I could muddle through the process, surly with Fibrek’s resources they could come up with a decent website. One has to wonder why promoting the company would be so low on their priorities. Certainly this will not make or break the company, but it does seem to reflect on their marketing abilities and that concerns me. If they are not interested in trying to promote their own company... I also wonder about Fairfax's position in all of this. Perhaps FFH and ABH are not as interested in seeing the share price rise as we are?

Agreed 100%. I find it hard to be as pessimistic as some are about a side of the operation that could be a large potential asset. Might these mills not be quite attractive to a US company who wanted to be a large player in the recycling industry. There is a certain PR aspect in saying "We are saving trees and efficiently recycling industry's waste paper". The plants are new and long term, RBK is not going to fade away. Also this is a segment that is in line with the times. Never underestimate the power of the green/recycle movement. If the production of RBK was a losing proposition where mills might be closed, I would think tax incentives and subsidies would be demanded to keep them in operation.

Uccmal That was what I thought was the problem with the US mills. However, I am optimistic that this may not be permanent problem or at least there could be some improvement. Here is the way I see it. The economy had created a climate where industries were forced to make sudden cutbacks and recycling was not seen as a priority but more as a PR issue. But there is absolutely no way the green and recycle movement is going to go away, in fact it will only increase. As the economy gets back on the rails more focus put back on recycling and hopefully that will help improve the US mills situation - but it could take some time. However, there is an outside chance that some company may agree with this line of thought and make a move to pick up these mills in anticipation of a turnaround.

Yup, just as I thought - those years in university many years ago simply taught me to realize how little I really know. SD, are you sure you didn't teach statistics at one time? I may get time to study today's lesson later but I think Watcher and I may have to stay after school. If nothing else, the posts over the last day have given me a few good laughs. See FBK is up to $1.36.

Thank you for that SD. I got about 50% of that. As Watcher said, I wish I had paid more attention to that statistics course I took in university many years ago. Bottom line here would seem that short of another big hiccup in the world economy, one has to be pretty optimistic on FBK. There seems to be no indications of any serious erosion in the price of pulp and every opportunity for FBK to be quite profitable. Also you can't ignore the implications of the ABH/FFH factor. Couple of questions though. Obviously there must have been good reason for the RBK plants to be built and they are supposed to be 'state of the art' so why aren't they profitable? What are the chances that they will become profitable? If NBSK and paper in general becomes more expensive shouldn't RBK follow? I wonder if the green aspect of recycled paper has suffered because it is seen as a bit of a luxury when industry finds it necessary to cut costs but will become more acceptable as the economy improves? Just 3-1/2 years ago FBK/SFK was in the $5 range and a few years before that it was $8-$10. Has anyone done a comparison of SFK/FBK's numbers back then to where they are now and numbers that might be projected for a year or so out? Pretty favorable, as a guess?

I had regreated not dumping this when it was just shy of $2, but who knew it would drop back to a buck. Like you, at $4 I would be very happy. Aside from the toilet paper factor (which is a good point), I think that there are more reasons for prices to stay steady or increase than they are to drop. And even if they did drop back a bit the company should be able to remain profitable - unless everything starts to go down the toilet again. But I think the guys on this board who are forcasting a buyout or some sort of consolidation put forth a pretty convincing arguement and at this point I think i am probably going to be holding until something develops on that front or it becomes clear that it isn't in the cards. Its tempting to go for more but I am a bit too chicken. I got into this at around $1.70 which seemed to be a big mistake. But if I hadn't I would have never taken the initiative to buy a bunch more at .53 and 1.01 so as someone else said on this board, I have been able to take one of my big losers and turn in into a big winner. Hopefully even bigger.

I sympathize with Partner, but who would screen the questions received as to what information could be properly released to to the public and what could not? There could be a fine line at times between what might effect share price. I'm not suggesting that the info should or should not be released, just that there would have to be a number of people involved in screening the information and that could be a problem. One of the reasons I am invested is that I trust these guys. just 2 cents worth...