ACooke
-
Posts
157 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by ACooke
-
-
7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
Self driving trucks would shift the moat away from Railroads to trucking. I think self driving trucking on Highways is a solvable problem in the not too distant future. It’s possible that truck drive themselves on highways and then park on exits and drivers will assist with the last few miles.
Doesn't this defeat the purpose and make a train more viable (assuming a depot is nearby)?
If you're having to meet a truck somewhere for a driver to take over wouldn't it be cheaper to just throw it on a big, long, more efficient truck (a train) and unload/reload at the depot? Sure the unload/reload certainly adds drag but without actually crunching numbers - it it seems like you're better off once you factor in much higher maintenance costs for a truck, insurance etc. - plus, do you now have to set up a bunch of facilities periodically along a highway as meeting/pick up points - I'm sure you can't just start lining trucks up on highway breakdown lanes?
Also, unless we sort out how to fuel these things with something more "green" than the utopian mirage that is the current EV battery, it seems counter intuitive to the whole climate change song and dance.
I agree in that self driving trucks etc. are an inevitability but I don't think we're even close. I think it's 15+ years off, although I have zero basis for that opinion.
The old quote about things happening extremely slowly and then all at once seems to spring to mind here.
-
I aim for 8-10 positions which typically ends up being about 12 by the time I factor in odds and ends - things I'm moving out of/in to or have had trouble building a position to the size I'd hoped for.
I think that size/concentration just seems to work best for me psychologically.
Being that concentrated doesn't concern me - portfolio swings don't particularly worry me and I find it difficult to tend to many more positions than that.
I've found in the past if I have say 20+ positions of equal weight, I lose interest/find it difficult to follow such a number. I'm not able to tend to my portfolio full time and positions 5% and under *feel* (perhaps irrationally) too small to be meaningful to me.
I can't say I've come to the above in an overly objective way - it's just where I tend to end up/feel best.
A shortfall is definitely that there's certainly times where I hold a larger cash balance than I think might be ideal, purely due to the fact I find it difficult to find ideas at times which i guess brings the questions of whether I'd be better having some less heavily weighted positions which I'm reasonably confident will add to performance and if they do detract, aren't too meaningful. In saying that, as above, I tend to just end up neglecting them and not following them closely.
-
1 minute ago, changegonnacome said:
with misses & earnings revisions incoming 3000 SPY is a cert in my world...
...once its all wrestled to floor the market will do what it does best start sifting through the wreckage and high FCF beasts & pristine assets will get 'found' again and will be rewarded.........the catch is you gotta hold em in ADVANCE of the re-rating which is tough sledding but builds character
Yeah this seems like the most likely outcome to me also; although, my conviction is not tightly-held.
-
17 minutes ago, VersaillesinNY said:
CNBC Transcript: Duquesne Family Office Chairman & CEO Stanley Druckenmiller Speaks with CNBC’s Joe Kernen Live During the CNBC Delivering Alpha Conference
Just jumped in to post this, too.
Well worth a read.
-
14 hours ago, formthirteen said:
Investors here might find Gold with Matthew McConaughey to be interesting:
I think it got pretty poor reviews but I loved it. Great movie (although I'd guess I enjoy the subject matter more than the average viewer).
There's a book called Gold Rush by Jim Richards - it's a bio about a geologist hoping to fund and float his own mining business. He starts out prospecting for gold in Guyana, heads down to Brazil and a bunch of other places - oil in the middle east, Diamonds in Australia and at one stage gets caught up in the Bre-X fraud.
Really interesting book if you enjoy that sort of topic. Easy read, too.
It's probably more 'adventure' than it is geology heavy.
-
11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
@ACooke re TPB I agree with your assessment. It’s one of my biggest losers (in terms of % loss). I have been adding just a little recently, but my concerns with the CEO (no consumer goods experience) prevent me from getting in bigger.
I think they should sell or close down the NewGen (vape) business
I agree - they may do so. They've scaled back capex within the seg as far as I'm aware - I guess whether they make a further push or continue winding it down somewhat will depend on the PMTA outcome. Even if they're successful there, I'm not certain a whole lot comes of their in-house brands.
I wonder what they could part the seg out for - surely the E-commerce side of it is worth *something*.
As for the CEO - there's not many positives I could find spoken about him from his last role although that was mainly from forums and blogs. I can't recall the magazine exactly but it was a motorsport magazine which in his defence - i think any time you move in to a niche, cultish (too strong of a word here but meh) type hobby and start making business-savvy changes - you're asking for push back from fans. Bobby Kotick is probably a good example on a much grander scale.
He's certainly an unknown quantity at the very least.
-
PCYO too - almost a full position for me now - I've been buying from ~$11 down, added a chunk more today - might take another swing if we see something in the mid $8's.
Also TPB - I think you can scratch the New Gen seg and you're getting some solid brands in ZZ and Stokers at a sub 10 earnings multiple. I think their sales should be reasonably sticky in a recessionary environment, they should have some pricing power. I think it's likely they can grow top and bottom line at something around mid - high single digits, especially if there's some cross synergies with the Clipper acquisition. Potentially some tailwinds from further weed legalization.
There's potential vaping takes share of the joint market which wouldn't be ideal, and more stringent cigarette laws hinder paper sales but they'll hopefully have some horses in that race if that's the case.
I think there's plenty of 'free options' in their New Gen seg and some of their minority holdings.
The new CEO concerns me a little - mildly concerned that he may be a bit of a Malone wannabe without the capacity to pull it off. Debt levels also something that needs to be monitored.
-
1 hour ago, lathinker said:
One way to bump this is a call spread. You could buy a Jan 24 80 call at 8.70 and sell a Jan24 90 call at 3.30. You are investing 5.40. If the deal closes, both options are exercised and you will get 15$ on the C80 yet lose 5$ on C90 for a return. In total you will make 10 on an investment of 5.40.
I've never really spent any time learning about call spreads and so forth.
The goal here is just to juice your return, rather than lock in a spread or similar - as you might see done with long/short hedging and so forth.
- So if the deal closes you're return is the spreads ($15 - $5 = $10). Plus and minus the premiums ($3.30 -$8.70 = $5.40) = $4.60. So 186% is returned (86% ROI).
- This is better than buying the $8.70 call in isolation and the deal closing, returning 172% (72% ROI).
- Similarly the $3.35 $90 call nets less again at ~50%.
Now I've typed the out a feel a little dense and the above seems clear.
If I'm missing something I'll go ahead and spend some time on it myself rather than asking to be spoon fed.
-
7 hours ago, Gregmal said:
What’s cool if you’re really into it and live somewhere around the northeast is you can book those guys for fishing trips at not much more than you’d pay for a regular trip anywhere else. Dave Marciano and Paul Hebert are awesome dudes.
I can only wish - at least for now.
I’m a couple of thousand kilometers (miles
) away from you lot. 
I can assure you, i’m extremely envious though.
-
6 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
Wicked Tuna is neat too. Many of the same characteristics. A bunch of rich kids but also some of the old timers. Spend a week at sea, hope for no mechanical issues and reasonable weather, spend 5 hours fighting a 200-500 lb bluefin, come back and hope for $5k gross before crew splits and fuel/bait costs.
Sold. I'll throw that on my list.
Thanks!
-
I've been watching 'Gold Rush' lately, namely the 'white water' seasons - mainly because it's fairly brainless and intriguing as to how they rig and build things to tackle certain scenarios they fall upon whilst being in the middle of nowhere and for some reason I'm always fascinated by prospecting and mining in general.
I'd love to know their actual spend each year - I feel like I'm continually doing the math in my head (and it's very simple math) of how much their pulling in vs what they're likely spending, before the crew takes home a cent. It's truly brutal.
I'm sure they're probably floated (excuse the pun) or supplemented to some extent by the film producers, and no doubt a chunk of it's mashed together in odd orders and over dramatized; but if what they show and suggest is in any way indicative of the true economics of an operation like that ------ mannnnn it boggles thy mind.
Fun - if slightly repetitive - watch though.
-
I don't use an awful lot either.
I use a PDF editor - Microsoft Edge atm - in which I highlight and take short notes on 10k's and such.
As I work through an idea I'll take longer notes and grab quotes etc. from call transcripts and other docs which I do in Microsoft Word and I'll eventually paste them in to the main document - the pdf - I've been taking notes on - usually the most recent 10k/AR.
I'll also typically pen and paper up a bunch of stuff in a note book as I go - usually I'll compile important financial data here - work through a valuation model - draw cap structures if they're complex or a breakdown of subsidiaries and such and note some of the more objective and concrete things I'm using to build my valuation or want to keep tabs on.
So I pretty much end up with the most recent 10k which I've blanked a few pages on and copy pasted some notes from a bunch of sources over the top - this typically runs 2 - 4 pages and my literal paper notebook which will have a 1 or 2 pager which shows how I've worked through a valuation, inclusive of any scribbling, adjusting I do (I find it easier to note and easier to retain if I do it there) plus anything I want to draw/diagram. I'll throw some brief notes on the pdf doc too outlining what I came up with valuation wise so it's easy and quick to address.
The thing I'd like most (although not enough to pay for it - clearly ha ha) is a site that does 10yr (or longer) financials for a bunch of markets. QuickFS is great for US, Can, Uk but outside of that I find it tricky to find anything that's consistent. TIKR was good - I should probably just suck it up and pay.
-
Just finishing this up now.
Great, entertaining book on the Wirecard blow up. It always amazes me how these things float along for so long and the level of push back any pessimism - no matter how objective and provable - is given from regulatory and financial institutions. it's literally like they block their eyes and ears and repeatedly sing 'la la la, we can't hear you, la la la'; it's utterly absurd.
Anyway - pretty easy and entertaining read - not financially heavy. Similar to something like Red Notice, Billion dollar whale, blood and oil.
Certainly worthwhile picking up if financial shenanigans is your jam.
-
7 hours ago, mattee2264 said:
Read some interesting data that suggest that the time to bottom depends very much on the depth of the bear market (which makes sense). If this is going to be a run of the mill 20-25% bear market then 1/2 a year is pretty typical and furthermore a swift recovery by the year end to all time highs is also the base case and bottom is already in.
I find it difficult to get my head around the market being at ATH's again by year-end. If margins continue to compress like they have been for many industries (without considering total sales) - input costs, supply chain issues, energy, labour, interest etc. - then assuming actual stock price/market cap is what's referred to, that'd involve some pretty meaningful multiple expansion; all the whilst we'll almost certainly still be dealing with inflated input costs and so forth. Keeping in mind valuations were very high pre this draw down.
Seems like a big ask to me, I tend to think we probably go lower and almost certainly go longer, but then again - I have minimal faith in my ability to predict 'Mr. Market'.
-
Almost through this one - truly fascinating.
Essentially as the title suggests it's a diary from ~1930 through ~1940 America from the viewpoint of a small business owner - a lawyer - who's keenly interested (and very intelligible) in the securities markets, business, economic policy and politics of the time. Very intriguing to hear him think through what might be best practises for the time and forecast what he believes is to come, all the whilst real estate is being repossessed but unable to be moved on from bank's balance sheets, causing banks to close their doors. The world is bouncing between deflationary and inflationary scares, war and poverty, and whiplashing securities markets.
Fascinating as to how brutal the period was. A lot of stuff can be related to today but most is difficult to imagine happening *here* again (at least for me).
-
9 hours ago, KPO said:
Great topic. I’ve been doing this off and on for years with 5-10% of my portfolio. I always target cash deals and I hold the positions in my Roth or traditional IRA to avoid creating a tax event. On balance I’ve actually been surprised how well it’s worked out, but I don’t feel like I’ve developed a good repeatable process for sourcing ideas. It’s just sort of been randomly stumbling upon ideas from various sources
Sourcing/time drag is probably my largest concern here too, was hoping I'd grab an idea or two from this thread which has been fantastic so far - great hearing everyone's input. There's been a fair bit of commentary re. risk arb/special situations on some podcasts and blogs lately which is probably the main reason I'm considering throwing a basket together - plenty of stuff floating around and some decent looking spreads.
Do you just equal weight for the most part? I think equal weighting say a 10% chunk or whatever of you're portfolio makes sense if:
- You're not bringing much to the table in regards to likelihood of closure.
- You're not wanting to spend a hefty sum of time on each situation.
-
Has anyone considered throwing together a basket of merger-arbs?
To be forth-coming, I don't bring much to the table in regards to the likelihood of certain deals closing or breaking which is why I'm intrigued by taking a basket approach.
There seems to be a stack of pretty juicy spreads around; presumably many of these will close at close to current terms, and some will break.
Assuming the above is correct and with regards to some of the current spreads - it seems at first pass that a basket of these could net some reasonably low risk, decent, and market-neutral returns.
Would be interested if anyone is playing around with this approach.
Again, I haven't much to add outside of a set of keen eyes.
-
Mike's awesome - funny dude, too.
The Stronger by Science and 3dmj guys are unreal as well, as is Jeff Nippard (if you're in to the non-PED side of things anyway).
-
Fantastic listen as always; well worth the hour.
-
Just finished Junk to Gold, written by the founder and about the founding of Copart CPRT.
Willis (the founder) takes the business from a small scrap yard, scrapping cars for iron, copper etc. and living in a trailer on-site, to the international insurance auctions business it is today - or more accurately 'was' when Willis handed the business over to the current CEO in 2010-ish. It covers the differing business models of Copart vs IAA, having both publicly listed at around the same time, expanding and competing for the same market.
Great book. Not super in-depth but certainly an entertaining read.
Jim Cramer stock calls
in General Discussion
Posted
The meme-tists' censorship framework intrigues me.