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wescobrk

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Posts posted by wescobrk

  1. 23 minutes ago, oscarazocar said:

     

    This is a quote from a 2007 student visit to Omaha:

     

    Question 2: GEICO is one of Berkshire’s crown jewels. You know the auto insurance industry cold, and you have been extolling the virtues of the GEICO and Progressive business models for decades. Why haven’t you ever taken a stake in Progressive?

    Essentially, "thumb-sucking". That is what his partner Charlie Munger calls it when they identify opportunities in their circle of competence and fail to pull the trigger. Buying one didn’t preclude buying the other. He immensely admires Peter Lewis, the longtime CEO of Progressive. He asks the question of CEO’s – if you had a silver bullet and could kill one of your competitors, who would it be? For GEICO, Buffett would his silver bullet, and all the rest of his ammo, shooting Progressive. Years ago [presumably in the early 1980’s], they were briefly looking at putting the two companies together. He joked that each CEO, Jack Byrne of GEICO and Peter Lewis, would each come to him and report that negotiations were moving along, only that each was under the impression that he was gong to be the CEO of the combined company.

    Buffett told the story of his initial involvement with GEICO as a Columbia student. It was obvious to him in 1951 that GEICO would do very well for a very long time. Everyone hates buying car insurance, but they are forced to, and a good chunk of them will go with the low-cost provider.

    Buffett mentioned that GEICO now has a slightly better position than Progressive [due to a lower cost structure, I believe], but that the two of them will be duking it out and both will gain share for a long time. When the internet hit, Progressive actually had an edge for awhile. Because they had no direct distribution up to that point, they were quicker to seize on the internet as their direct distribution channel. GEICO had been so successful with its direct mail and phone strategy that those institutional forces vested in the old systems prevented it from shifting to the internet nearly as quickly as it should have. Buffett eventually had to lock them in a room and tell them they couldn’t come out until they had a viable internet strategy.

    Thanks for posting that sheds light why he didn’t buy them but still not sure why he never bought the stock (or maybe he did and I’m not aware).

    I know his comments about Walmart and google that he just missed them due to price wasn’t low enough for the former and missed it on the latter but he has to know progressive better than anyone else in the world so really odd he missed buying the common for decades especially after 2008 and in 2020 during large corrections.

    oh well, can’t win them all.

  2. He will probably hold for another run up but if he has 100 percent in Gme then he can’t buy more if there is a big drop, well he does have six million but that is low,single digit percentage of his liquid net worth.

  3. 13 minutes ago, gfp said:

     

    Everything is in one account at E-trade.  He can trade long options positions in the account even if it was an IRA.  There is a cash balance, not on margin.

    Understood, snapshot looks like one account.

    seems like crazy risk to buy all of those options in an Ira but he obviously has huge risk tolerance so he will have to wait 21 years to collect on this account unless he does a 72t, if it is an Ira.

  4. I don’t know but I would assume it is taxable at least for his options account so the government would share in his losses.

    it wouldn’t surprise me if his shares are in an Ira as I do believe he is a sharp guy, but I have no proof and just speculating.

  5. @ValueArb you could definitely be right, I see your logic, how does cohen know if he has to wait 3 years to turn on turn money printing machine again?

    Maybe roaring kitty has a taste of becoming a billionaire and he will be back before year end and cohen doesn’t want to kill the goose that is laying the golden eggs.

  6.  Valuearb, that makes sense except ( see another scenario that if roaring kitty disappears for another 3 years (or forever since he is worth over half a bil) I could see cohen doing another ATM but at a lower share count.

    if I were him that is what I would do.

    we will see.

    did you see that quote from citron? ‘An jnsult to capital markets”

    give me a break, you shorted for a measly few days and lost money so quit your bitching snd take it like a man, roaring kitty kicked your ass 3x.

  7. Quote

     

    We will see if Ryan does another ATM since it is above 30, if so, maybe another retrace to 22.

    i thought we would see this happen, tomorrow will be interesting!

    im hoping for another retrace into the mid 20s

  8.  Valuearb, thanks for the post, what is a realistic short a percentage of the current float?

    last time I checked yahoo finance it showed 29 percent but that doesn’t sound accurate as you argue in your post.

    so maybe range bound in the 20’s is possible for several weeks as you indicate long and short could be frustrated?

  9. 14 hours ago, ValueArb said:

     

    Ok, my math was off a bit from an incorrect assumption. I thought the May 17 offering announcement was after hours, but it was before, so the actual percentage of shares sold over the 6 days was around 14%. And also the closing price the day before was $27, so it did seem to have a strong effect on the price over those 6 days (ending at $19).

    When do you think the company willbe finished with the 75 million shares?

    Maybe Monday, June 17th?

  10. Makes sense, buy a ton of options then announce his return.

    same as Ackman did a few years ago as someone pointed out.

    for the people that hate him I hope they also hate ackman and all the other managers that do the same.

  11. I don’t know how much his wife makes but I’ve read his wife works for Goldman.

    valid points though as I also read he paid over 7 million for a mansion.

    maybe he bought call options on nvidia or something else?

    crypto could definitely also be a factor.

    he must have some very loyal friends as I’m surprised there haven’t been any quotes from people close to him about anything really over the past 3 years.

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