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Aurel

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Posts posted by Aurel

  1. 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

    Here is mother recent talk. Druckenmiller here gives actually a bit of trading advice:

    1) He exits when he figures his thesis is wrong

    2) He Never uses stop loss.

    Is anyone using Toggle AI and if so, what is the experience? Today, IB has a Webinar today about Toggle AI around lunch time, so if it is quiet at work, I might give it a listen.

     

    I'm very impressed, that he is still so hungry + an early adopter in this tech-stuff (exept crypto 😄 )!

  2. This community is pure gold! I really appreciate your comments. It helps a lot!

     

    I just ordered Skunk Works.

     

    @beerbaron: Ok, that is sounds like a good idea. First take the R&D @ face value and after some DD maybe mark it up or down. Plus have an eye on the industry norm.

     

    @Valuearb: That is an interesting fact, too. Never thought or read about that.

     

     

    Maybe that is one of the points Buffett likes consumer brands a lot, where you don’t have to think a lot about R&D costs...

     

     

     

     

     

  3. The reality is that at the 'micro' level it doesn't happen ;)

     

    It is far smarter to invest the R&D as incremental working capital in more efficient P&E. In the brewing world, this is shared brew-level collaborations with other brewers, using contracted facilities. 2+ brewers sharing the incremental cost of brewing a batch at 3-4x 'normal' volume, to lower unit costs by 35%+. Licensing your brew to a local foreign brewer, rather than making locally and shipping it.

     

    Long-term is 4 years, the length of the strategic plan. For most, the focus is on operating leverage at the expense of financial, where this is R&D it's essentially self-funded small-batch experimentation. Continually prove the market as you move along, or drop it.

     

    SD

     

    Thanks SD, thats exactly the stuff i wanna hear about. I just ask myself, lets say in healthcare, how much of the R&D-expenses really filling the pipeline for new products. Or how to anlayse and value R&D-costs better.

     

    And thanks for the link ratiman! Good post.

     

    FYI: Percentage of global research and development spending in 2018, by industry:

    co.png

  4. Hey Guys,

     

    I am looking for good literature how R&D spending can impact the future performance of a company. Generally, or by different industries.

     

    Most of the stuff I am finding, is about macro-based spending and their impact. I am looking for any comments, papers, or studies on a micro-based spending and the "quality" of this.

     

    Thanks,

    Aurel

     

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