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Aurel

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Posts posted by Aurel

    China - Economic Consequences of Zero Covid Policy

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Aurel

    2 hours ago, crazyjsj said:

    I might think that the mess in Shanghai is a result of political game.  This year is a critical year of so called "election“ for CPP cabinet. 

     

    Apparently, "zero covid" policy is supported by those Xi supporters, while "coexistence with Covid" policy is supported by liberals in CPP. 

     

    Due to higher education and higher income, and much openess to foreign cultures, Shanghai is historically a place for liberals. 

     

    Shanghai's contribution of tax to the central government is the highest, and their local governors acutally have a strong saying in the cabinet. 

     

    Right now the central government is shifting to more and more conservative. By nature, there is a strong conflict between Shanghai local goverment and central government.

     

    In the initial stage, the Shanghai local government would like to follow the suit of Hongkong and Signapore to co-exist with Omicron, that's why they do not use the drastic measure to contain it in the very beginning. (Be noted that Shenzhen at the same time chose to a fast lockdown, and realize a zero Covid in a very short time)

     

    However, the central government seems not happy about that, and then tried to push the policy to "zero covid" policy again. Then it is a mess.

     

    To be honest, if simply analyzing China and CCP as a similar USSR communism party and only information from Western media, this already created a strong bias. 

     

    China and its policy are not perfect, probably it is not as good as propaganda by Chinese main stream media, also it is not as drastically evil as propoganda by Western main stream media.  And people over there are just as normal as people in other countries, they know what is good with the system, and they also know what is bad with the system.  When the benefits of people have been damaged and threatened by the policies of the government, people over there will fight.  There are so many Chinese and Western people traveling btw China and Western countries, somebody choose to stay and sombody choose to leave, (just check the international flights).  Are they stupid? No, I do not think so. 

    Yes that's interesting. The lockdown-stuff etc. could also be a form of sanctions against the west?!

     

     

    Russia-Ukrainian War

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    21 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

    I know for fact that the Maxar pics we are seeing in newsreels are not state of the art. The real mil grade surveillance is much better than that using high resolution optics, IR and what not. State of the art satellite imagery can likely read a license plate if it points upwards.

    Do you have good sources on this topic? I am quite interested in this topic and would appreciate some recommendations.

    Garmin - Terminal Decline or Deep Value

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    12 hours ago, nsx5200 said:

    They are the leader in their very small ponds.  IMHO, their biggest competitor is Apple.  Every time Apple makes their phone/watch a little better, Garmin’s moat gets smaller.  Great pivots from Garmin over the years, but can they really keep fighting the Apple beast?  Unlike Home Depot vs Amazon, where there are natural moats, I don’t see that in Garmin.  Doesn’t mean it’s not there.  I just don’t see it, but I haven’t been looking.  Let me know if there new insights.

    Maybe Garmin is more the "riches in niches"-play with fatter margins long term?! Look at aviation...hard to imagine, that we are flying on apple screens soon.... but every Pilot has an iPad. Every third pilot has an apple watch. mh.

     

    Just a thougt..

    Is Munger "On Tilt"?

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

    Im a huge Munger fan...I appreciate his logic and his ability to be blunt...but he made a comment regarding the one-child policy that is probably gonna bring some criticism. Im not saying he is wrong...just that I dont know if I would have worded it the same way he did...to be honest I probably would have avoided a statement about it all together.

     

    ~37:30 to 39:00 mark of the video, regarding China's forced abortion policy. "...They (China) had to prevent 500 or 600 million people from even being born in China. They just measured the women's menstrual cycle when they came to work, and aborted those that weren't allowed. You can't do that in the United States, and it really needed doing in China"

    At his age one can afford a little more honesty. 

    What are you listening to ? (Music thread)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, boilermaker75 said:

    Thanks @Aurel, I listened to a little of it. I'll find time this weekend to watch it all. As I mentioned, I am a huge fan of Neil and Crazy Horse.

     

    Edit: Probably my favorite album is Everybody Knows This is Nowhere, although I have probably listened to Harvest more than any other album.

    Nice, i think you'll like it!

     

    Do you know this one?

    I think it's my favorite.

    Is Munger "On Tilt"?

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted · Edited by Aurel

    17 minutes ago, Thrifty3000 said:

    One thing that actually does strike me as a bit "off tilt" for Munger is why he broke from he and WEB's usual approach to betting on an oversold industry (with an unclear winner), which is to buy a basket.

     

    It's a waste of time to speculate on the reason, but I can only assume that he has had Baba set in his mind as a long term winner from his prior conversations with Li. And, he probably has overwhelmingly positive China bias after his trips to China and his heroic BYD experience. Munger has a healthy amount of hubris - to put it mildly - so I'd honestly be surprised if he has read more than a handful of pages of the annual reports of any of the Daily Journal's portfolio holdings in recent years.

    Well, you got a point there.

     

     

    At least he does this kind of stuff: investing without a lot of DD. (this time it worked out quite OK)

     

    But maybe he just wanted to show off a bit. Who knows.

     

    EDIT:

    For those who are interested in the story:

    https://www.netnethunter.com/charlie-munger-cigar-butt/

    Best Investment Idea(s) for 2022

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Aurel

    On 1/12/2022 at 3:23 PM, Spekulatius said:

    JST.DE (truck trailer etc) seems like a great business, but it is also somewhat expensive. It appears they dominate their niche.

     

    I think SHA.DE (Schaeffler) may be a better bet than LEONI risk adjusted. Somewhat levered but profitable. Family controlled which could be an issue. Statistically cheap, but hasn't been a great performer since IPO.

    I took a first glance at SHA.DE and agree: It looks more interesting then JST.DE, if you take the valuation into account. Not sure about the owners-family, but the management looks decent to me. Their debt looks a lot, but manageable to me.

    I will dig deeper and maybe grab some shares. Thanks for bringing this up.

    The insiders like to buy at these prices, too:

    https://www.insider-alarm.de/schaeffler-ag/

    Is Munger "On Tilt"?

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted · Edited by Aurel

    On 1/5/2022 at 7:16 AM, Thrifty3000 said:

    Munger in 2019:

     

    image.thumb.png.981ab58fdf5e8c52fd1b44f3d447a5a4.png

    CTM is bullish on China for a long time. He finds Li Lu and it worked out well. He admires Lee Kuan Yew and sees a lot of his leading style now in China. I think he is right, that China did a lot for humanity with their one-child-policy and so on. They got so many people out of poverty so fast. But the West only talks about human right abuses and some want to boycott the Olympic games for example.

     

    I think he was really patience “to shoot an elephant” over there. And now the time is right. (for Munger)

     

    I do have a hard time to believe, that Munger thinks about margin-compression all day long.

     

     

    Best Investment Idea(s) for 2022

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    On 1/4/2022 at 2:20 AM, Spekulatius said:

    I think Norma NOEJ.DE may be an easier bet, same idea, but much better balance sheet and a better business. I do think that the automobile suppliers are a good place to look for a turnaround plays in 2022.

    I looked at JST.DE some time ago. (pre-COVID) They offer truck and trailer components. Selling mostly to the big OEMs.

     

    Decent Management and looks like they already recover from the pandemic. But quite some debt, so not really cheap thow.

    What are you listening to ? (Music thread)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    16 hours ago, boilermaker75 said:

     

    Neil Young has been my favorite for 50 years. I have listened to Everybody Knows this is Nowhere, After the Gold Rush, and Harvest more than any other albums. I've seen him in concert with Crazy Horse and with CSN&Y.

    Thats, cool. He is my favorite, too. I was the classic 90s Rap/Hip-Hop-Kid. Till i found the Neil Young records from my Dad.

     

    Saw him twice in Berlin. One time with Crazy Horse, one time with Promise of the Real. (was very good, too.)

     

     

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