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Aurel

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Posts posted by Aurel

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Aurel

    5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

    None, I could find really. The CEO Constantin Wanger has shown some skill buying some companies cheap and selling them dearly.

    I can find some rumbling about Vorwerk, which MBB purchased and then floated for 46 Euro and it’s now trading for 11 and change as it has underperformed. It was overvalued  when it was IPO’d and some people are oilseed and blame MBB. Vorwerk is really a construction company that does mostly energy and energy infrastructure projects  and it was sold as a green energy play. hard to blame MBB for that though.

     

    MBB has done a better job than other Holdings creating value faith Mittelstand or Public co acquisitions. I probably add to my small holdings now that I think about it. 

     

    I like and hold MBB, too.

     

    Maybe we'll see a squeeze-out at some time? Management owns already a lot of stock and is still buying.


    I also had a look at Gesco.DE, since it's more diversified and it's quite cheap, too. But I think MBB.DE has the better management and better holdings.

     

    China

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Luca said:

    Why does he need help with risk management? He invested in two great big, well run businesses in one of the largest growing economies that gains partners all over the planet in rapid speed. A country that is at the top in many of the futures fields. He rightfully agrees that the valuations compensate for the slight increase in geopolitical uncertainty but as he said, it would be bonkers if there is war between US and China. Why would anyone be so stupid and risk a war, Ray Dalio puts it perfectly, its not in the interest of anybody.

     

     

     

    Sure, it would be bonkers if there is a war between US and China. That doesn't mean it ain't gonna happen.

    It's tough do give up your supremacy. It’s the Thucydides Trap.

    Quote

    Supporting the thesis, Graham Allison led a study at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which found that among 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power, 12 ended in war.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap

     

     

     

    But..maybe this time it’s different.

    China

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    On 4/1/2023 at 11:57 AM, Luca said:

    Only for german viewers or english subtitles, one of the BEST videos i have seen about china. Frank Sieren lives in Peking for more than 20 years and informs german news agencies about developments there, holds talks about china etc. 

     

     

    Hey thank you for the link! It's refreashing to hear some real first hand opinion on china. Corresponds very much to my own travel experiences. Not the typical german "we do it right, so they have to follow us!"-twaddel.


    Usualy not a Jung & Naiv-Fan. But this is a good one! Bought the book "Zukunft? China!: Wie die neue Supermacht unser Leben, unsere Politik, unsere Wirtschaft verändert "

    • Like 1

    Chapter III: Digital Marcus Aurelius

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

    He wasn't always stoic - he had his wife Faustina killed.

     

    Netflix has a series about Rome and the first 2 episodes deal with the tail end of Aurelius reign.

    Oops..

     

     

    But yeah, I love "Meditation". Great rules for life. Repeated over and over in self-help-books.

    Best Investment Idea(s) for 2022

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    17 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

    JST is a pretty good business, but I would like to buy it cheaper.

    Me too. It's been on my watchlist for quite some time. I like the easy-to-understand business model and the down-to-earth management.

    I think if you get the shares around 40 it's pretty cheap. But I still haven't made up my mind to buy anything, or had other stuff to buy.

    High Quality Multi-family REITs - EQR, CPT, ESS, AVB

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Aurel

    1 hour ago, Luca said:

    @LearningMachineJust watched a video about Vonovia, German Reit. Stock Price completely collapsed, Liabilities 4x marketcap, Longterm Debt 3x Marketcap. Leveraged cheap in low rates and now is faced with a new environment. German Rents are growing much more slowly than US due to regulation. They also could face lots of costs due to green regulations. Dont know how long they financed but prices are going down down down too for properties. Looks scary. 

    I might add that Vonovia is not leaglly a REIT. So they don't have the tax privileges and payout-regulationof of a REIT.

     

    They own roughly 550.000 flats in germany and the overall rent is quite low compared to market standarts.

    So the EV of ~60B looks quite low to me.

     

    And they face political headwinds in Germany, but I think that's easy to handle.

     

     

    Berkshire 2022 Annual Report

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

    Yes, the letter are getting shorter.

     

    Stuff that he could have written about, but didn’t:

    1) His view on inflation and what they are seeing in their business

    2) something from or about Ajit and Abel

    3) How he views his large new holdings in CVX and OXY (energy bet)

    Right?

     

    Quote
    ...Buffett says, his sisters are “not active in business, so they’re not reading about it every day. I pretend that they’ve been away for a year and I’m reporting to them on their investment.”

     

    What are you listening to ? (Music thread)

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Aurel

    29 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

    I sort of went a little but down a Frank Zappa trip and really started to dig it. Zappa was what the Inteligentsia was listening to in the late 70‘s and I never really understood what it’s about.

     

    I did watch a documentary about him and then it became clear to me that he is more of a composer than a R&R musician. I like the mid 70‘s period the most - Aprostrophe, Overnite Sensation, One size fits all, Hot rats…

     

     

    Or the greatest album title ever “Sheik Yerbouti” (especially considering it was released in 1979).

     

     

    Great tune!
     

    I also love the uptempo-"coke"-version of it.

     

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    17 hours ago, competitive-advantage said:

    I just found this interesting video in english from the founder/CEO (Year 1996-)

     

    Summary: Kaare Danielsen, CEO and founder, gave a very entertaining walk through the Jobindex history – probably the first job aggregator in the world. His three key decisions was first to found the company; then change focus from price to service and lastly exploit the financial crisis. Although “founding the company” may seem too obvious as a key decision, Kaare’s thoughts on the matter was: In 1996 the internet was so new and no one used it, so it was a matter of catching the megatrend before it became obvious to the rest of the market. Then, when he had to compete against much larger companies it paid off to focus on service rather than price. That helped retain clients. See the video for a handful of great takeaways for a client focus strategy. Then during the financial crisis Jobindex chose to start advertising heavily and built a strong brand among both job seekers and employers. When the crisis came all the advertisers chose to only use one platform instead of maybe two or three. They were most likely to choose the platform with the biggest brand because that’s where most potential employees would probably search.  A few years later Jobindex were able to buy Stepstone, their main large competitor in the early 2000’s. Now Jobindex is the big player in Denmark – and when asked about competition Kaare is not too worried about head to head competitors, but he admits that being a big company means that you move slower. “It is difficult to be small, but it’s even more difficult to be large,” as he put it.

     

     

     

    Thank you for the summary and the translation. I'll check that out over the weekend!

     

     

    Cryptocurrencies

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

    Druckenmiller

     

    "Because we definitely need a change, half the country hates the other half, we have mayopic economic policies, boom and bust policies, we don't really get change unless bad stuff stuff happens to catalyse the change"

     

    "I can see cryptocurrencies have a big role in the renaissance"

     

     

     

     

    iirc, he said he sold his BTC.

    Buying real assets denominated in Euros

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Some euro-stuff i hold, FWIW:

    MBB SE:

    Small family-holding with a value-investing approach. I like the management a lot and they're holding a lot of the stock, too.

     

    Erlebnis Akademie AG:

    Small Cap. They build and run treetop-walks. It’s not dirty cheap, but I like their market position.

     

    Deutsche Euroshop AG:

    Bought it because it was cheap. Now there is an offer from the owner + Oaktree (BAM?). +40% up in a few months. But I still hold the shares.

     

    Bayer AG:

    I think you've heard about it.

     

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