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NormR

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Posts posted by NormR

    Chou 2016 semi annual report

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Chou seems to be a nice guy and clearly Toronto/Canadian crowd likes him, but the performance and portfolio seems to be bad.

     

    I guess just shows that being nice and talking good talk is not enough.

     

    Or maybe it is?  He runs funds, has AUM, earns a living with terrible performance.  In some ways he proves the point, if you can tell a good story and pull on those value heart strings performance doesn't matter.

     

    The long term numbers for his Canadian flagship fund remain very good.  He also helped make FFH a pot-load of money on the CDS position in 2008.  That and he has been extraordinarily good to the FFH community.  He is well liked for very good reasons.   

    Value investing is a mistake

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    In an effort to combat confirmation bias, please let me know how, where, and why value investors are wrong. 

     

    I'm most interested in themes and patterns rather than specific examples of the form "company XYZ is a bad bet due to ABC".  What is the best evidence against the efficacy of value investing in general? 

    Very negative article on Clayton

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    How to put a slant on the numbers ...

     

    When Vanderbilt was required to obtain appraisals before finalizing a loan, company officials wrote, the home was determined to be worth less than the sales price about 30 percent of the time.

     

    In other words, 70 percent of the time the appraisal was higher.  :o

    Calling All Bloomberg Wizards

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I didn't see a thread for Bloomberg related questions.  So, here's one :)

     

     

    I started playing with Bloomberg's backtester.  But I'd like to know what's wrong with it.  i.e. where does it fail or come up short. 

     

    For instance, I already know the available time period is too short for very serious work - at least in Canada.  But I imagine a few other issues might trap the unwary.  Aside from the basic data mining problem, of course.

    Dumb Quant - EBITDA/EV

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Anyways, by the way, Norm, it was your site that gave me the push and courage towards automated investing.  I haven't touched a 10 q in ages.  I'm much better off for it.

     

    Thanks opihiman2, I hope it has worked well for you.  We have a bit of a minority opinion around these parts.  But there is always something to learn too :)

    Dumb Quant - EBITDA/EV

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I might also caution west on the micro-cap end of things.  The data might be good and yet result in rather over optimistic return estimates due to bid-ask spread / trading volume effects.  I'm not against investing in small fry, but many studies run into real trouble there.

     

    I'd also say that the ranking of the "best ratio" to use has a habit of varying over time.

     

    Nonetheless, I'm rather fond of several simple quant strategies.   

    Dumb Quant - EBITDA/EV

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks for your answer. I used my free time on screener.co already and was pleased with the data, but i am just to cheap to pay for data. Perhaps i should just do it.

    I read on alpha architect that a shiller PE screen had very pleasing results, too. Do you think when you take the average EBITDA of the past 5-8 years you get better results? Or did you do that already?

     

    I missed this post.

     

    From everything I've seen, using a normalized EBITDA value underperforms using a TTM value.  However, I'm still in denial about this fact since it just doesn't make any sense to me.  So, until I collect more data, I'm just going to assume nothing about EV/TTM EBITDA versus EV/Normalized EBITDA :)

     

    Seems that price to normalized book value works fairly well.  (I'm still trying to think that one through.)

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