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crs223

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Posts posted by crs223

  1. 1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

    One of the key questions investors have asked themselves re:China is what do you own in the context of the CCP coming in one day, overriding shareholder

     

    I don’t think this is a question at all.  You’ve seen it play out.

     

    CCP kidnapped Alibaba’s founder, took an “golden share”, and levied a $3B fine (about 1% of market cap).  A few years later Alibaba is allowed to pay a dividend and buy back shares.

  2. 2 hours ago, abyli said:

     

    all Chinese were brain-washed since they were born, and they are still brain-washed 24 hours every day.

     

    What are some things that Chinese people don't know?

  3. 10 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

    It’s embarrassing for Iran how little by way of damage they were able to inflict

     

    true, but i’m not sure they were really trying to inflict damage.  normally you don’t telegraph your intentions a week in advance.

     

    Iran did the same thing to US bases after Solemani.

     

    If there was any damage inflicted yesterday it was Israel exposing more of their air defense capabilities, which presumably they want to keep secret.

  4. 17 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:

    I feel bad that the Chinese people get screwed as a result.

     

    I’ve been seeing news reports that chinese are illegally entering US via mexico.

     

    Chinese prospects not looking good right now.

  5. 18 hours ago, Luca said:

    Whats bothering me the most right now is chinas inability to get the latest high end chips and the continuing pressure on ASML to stop support china with older machines. 

     

    What impact will that have on their economies and competitiveness? What if Tesla is allowed to use latest Nvidia chips but BYD cant, making their product inferior? 

     

    Essentially, that ban is a complete blockade on chinas development and will effect them literally everywhere. They wont grow as much as the west since they cant have the level of automatization, their tech companies will lag behind, tech products will lag behind compared to the west. 

     

    Amazing for the west and US economies, terrible for china...

     

    The blockade will force China to develop their own chips and strengthen China.  That was your thought a few months ago.

  6. If the Fed unwound its balance sheet back to 2007 levels, would that impact the stock market?

     

    Im no economist, but I would guess that such an action would at minimum increase interest rates, which would cause stock prices to adjust to revise a competitive earnings yield.

  7. The CCP identified a housing bubble and intentionally popped it.  The fact that CCP hasn’t pulled out the monetary or fiscal bazooka (or some other hair-brained hack) tells us that they are fine with the way this is playing out.

     

    This is entertaining… blow up an obvious bubble and let the market sort it all out.  In my lifetime these problems have always been “handled” by the Central Planners in DC

     

     

     

     

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  8. 27 minutes ago, Parsad said:

     

    There were $260B in assets on the books...are you suggesting the real estate portfolio was completely wiped out?  That $260B in real estate holdings in China are completely worthless?

     

    Someone on this thread said that leftover assets (after liquidation) is not zero and is/will be stolen from bond holders. I would like to educate myself so i can make the same claim.  Can someone explain (or link to) the theft?

  9. 14 hours ago, formthirteen said:

    I will definitely assume 99% of profits from BABA will not reach foreign investors

     

    According to yahoo finance, BABA is paying out 18% of earnings as a dividend (1/5.44)

  10. 4 minutes ago, Parsad said:

    But in this case, there is and bond holders who naturally would be the owners of the remaining assets are also being wiped out

     

    How “remaining assets” were there?  Who received them instead?

  11. The irony is:  Screaming about "China will fail" would only happen if there was a clear path for China to succeed.  If China were clearly going to fail (e.g. North Korea or Zimbabwe) there would be no discussion.

     

    Remember in the early 80s when Japanese cars came onto the market -- GM was screaming the whole way about unfair trade practices, currency manipulation, and low quality.  Soon Toyota became number 1.  Screaming only happens when there is a threat.

     

  12. 2 hours ago, Luca said:

    The CCP is tackling exactly this, prosperity for the countryside and a less "top down" economy, as Biden put it 🙂

     

    But what are the reasons people are fleeing the country?  I don't believe it's all about banning girly-men, organ harvesting, and jobs/money.  There must be something more fundamental.

  13. Summary: people are trying to get the hell out of China — with their money of course.  Not sure who is “China Observer”, but this story agrees with my uninformed bias, so I assume it’s true (ha!).  Apparently a bunch of BABA execs have “settled” to Singapore (12:45).

     

     

  14. Doesn’t CCP know that these problems can be solved by distributing printed money (“liquidity”) to troubled institutions?

     

    Xi: I’m available to consult if you want to do it “Bernanke Style”!

     

     

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  15. 7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

    Biden also does not give a diplomatic damn about calling a dictator what he is.

     

    Bring Xi to USA and then insult him to his face.  If this was a calculated strategy designed to strengthen our nation, then I'm okay with it.

     

    giphy__4_.gif.3b1c873b728ed8a4e41c41b738a1bc49.gif

     

     

  16. 9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

    Articles won’t get written, news sources go down. Schools go down because students can’t write their assignments and teachers can’t rate them anyways. Office work snarls to a crawl.

     

    that’s pretty funny … in the future there might be backup GPT generators in the parking lot that fire up in case of a critical outage.

     

    I heard (water cooler talk) about a chatGPT “detector” that teachers/etc can use to see if content was generated by AI.  OpenAI can get paid by students to do the work and also by teachers to detect plagiarism!

     

     

    IMG_8495.jpeg

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