crs223
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Posts posted by crs223
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I naively thought liberty media (in particular the Sirus XM "branch") would be mindlessly simple: it's a company that just owns stock in another company. I thought I was going to see:
- Assets: Shares of SIRI
- Liabilities: Debt used to by SIRI
- Revenue: dividends from SIRI and proceeds from SIRI sales
- Expenses: cost to purchase SIRI shares
Then I would create a spreadsheet showing NAV.
Amusingly... I'm an hour into the 10K and I still don't know how many shares of SIRI are owned by Liberty Media. Not even sure if the Liberty financials are "including" SIRI's financials.
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4 hours ago, JAK said:
If you’re worried about it, bring a box of ear plugs and pass them out. Everybody flying business class knows that babies sometime fly and sometimes scream. Frequent fliers (business class) who cannot tolerate babies screaming brought ear plugs themselves. -
19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
I don't think it's easy to outperform with such a limited universe of investment opportunities, which brings us back to index investing.
1) Indexing
2) Clone Buffett/Munger
3) DIY
Wouldn't surprise me if (1) is best of the three.
Some on this site say that I will do better with (3) than I would with (2). I don't know how anyone could say that -- without at least inquiring whether or not I am mentally handicapped.
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... some say "it's easy... no need to clone Buffer and Munger... you can get better results doing your own research". So far I don't believe it... but maybe I'm starting with "too hard". I just want to see what "too easy" looks like first.
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Thanks for the great ideas so far everyone. This is for a teaching lesson, not necessarily investment ideas. I love ALCO: "sells oranges and then maybe later sells the land" -- reading the 10-K now.
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Can someone suggest a company that is in the “too easy pile”?
I’m thinking something where grandma can read the financials and get a good idea of what’s going on and a what price she might want to pay for it.
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1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:
I don't know what will happen with housing. Hopefully prices can pull back 20-30% so we don't crush the new generation.
I said something similar last week to my brother-in-law: "prices will have to come down... cannot be that the new generation is plainly unable to buy a home"
He basically said: "new generation doesn't do any actual work... why should they be able to buy actual assets".
Similar to a soviet/communist phrase "we pretend to work... and they pretend to pay us".
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11 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
Coming in at -1.4% seems kind of major - particularly since the Fed only just started hiking rates and is expected to accelerate that next month, no?
Wow. Maybe this means the Fed won't be hiking as much...
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4 hours ago, patience_and_focus said:
I am a novice when it comes to this topic, so this is genuine question. Isn't Gold prices just a proxy correlate for inflation? Inflation by definition is general increase in price and falling of purchasing power of fiat as far as I understand. So why can't Gold price movement not follow the usual observations when it comes to inflation?
perhaps gold has already priced in inflation (look at a 10 year chart) and the decline last week is due to the Fed communicating that it will really really really raise rates. A lot. Sometime in the future. Best not to rush these things. -
2006 housing bubble took 6 years peak to trough. $1M home will drop $200k. Rent while you wait will be $4,000/mo * 72 months = $288k
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29 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:
people couldn't make their offer without variable rate financing
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sales being the airBnB/mostly empty houses
My “FOMO coworkers” just bought — they will only buy with a fixed rate and they bought specifically due to FRM interest rate fears. Although I see your point… stretchers who went to ARMs will be in trouble. I’ve just never met one. (In 2005 my coworkers were buying with ARMs).I see empty homes too. Across the street is a vacant recent purchase with a stalled-for-six-months rental being added above the garage. Two coworkers who bought 6 weeks ago each have an empty house.
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1 hour ago, Viking said:
The real kick in the nuts is if you bought at the peak in Feb and prices correct 10-15% over the next 12-18 months. Your monthly cost to own went up $1,000 (your example). And the value of your shiny new asset just dropped n value by $100,000 (from $800,000 to $700,000). Leverage is a beautiful thing but only as long as home prices to up.
what percentage of residential mkt cap is on an adjustable rate mortgage? I doubt it’s that much.Also: to be fair, need to also include how much is saved by not paying rent.
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On 4/22/2022 at 5:38 PM, Viking said:
the Fed is JUST GETTING STARTED.
if I understand correctly the Fed raised the federal funds rate from 0.00 percent to 0.25 percent and has reduced its balance sheet by $0. -
9 minutes ago, wachtwoord said:
Strange laws you have there in North America if they can unconditionally do that without spefically stating it extremely clear during the buying process.
Great opportunity for someone to launch an new airline that guarantees the schedule (without charging a premium).
I doubt Buffett would invest, but maybe we could get Elon.
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10 hours ago, Gregmal said:
Even if half the demand falls off, so what? You have 10 people bidding all cash, at or over asking price, instead of the current 20?
i disagree with the logic on this particular point.Before the housing bubble popped, people were lined up down the street - camping out - for a chance to buy Florida condos. When the bubble popped, the lines didn’t drop from 20 tents down to 10 tents. The lines disappeared.
The current boom is at least partially driven by FOMO. If the demand ever slows down, the FOMO buyers will go away.
To your point on “desirable areas”, I agree. I suspect that COVID, work-from-home, and defund-the-police may have “triggered” (pun intended) a permanent increase in demand for lower density further-out residential property.
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It’s a “redistribution” from treasury buyers to those who have $10k to spare (the middle class). I wonder why the USG offers these.
Thank you for starting this thread!
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Best complaint ever (20M views):
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3 hours ago, ICUMD said:
Not an expert here, but could be by Central bank design. Monetary easing stoking inflation and helping reduce debt loads.
Who gets screwed over if everyone pays back their loans with worthless dollars? My guess is "banks". I also guess that banks would resist such a plan. According to [1], banks are the shareholders of the twelve federal reserve banks -- so I imagine that "banks" have influence over the central bank.
All guesses... I'd like to know how it all really works.
[1] https://www.federalreserveeducation.org/about-the-fed/structure-and-functions
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You’re going to have to get in line if you want to yell at airline employees. They take so much abuse. I’ve flown on military flights — over half were scrubbed due to equipment problems. It’s a miracle the airlines do what they do IMO.
I recommend instead of using the time to yell at airline employees, do something fun with your children.
You might also consider what our 18th and 19th century ancestors would think about your displeasure at being bumped from business class and adding a few hours to your trip.
Perhaps you should take a job at the airlines — you might be able to fix their scheduling/equipment/labor problems!
Commercial flying sucks nowadays. Ironically Since I’ve adopted that attitude I’ve been happier.
Enjoy your trip with the kids!
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Over the decades, each time the Fed embarks on a loosening cycle, it reaches lower highs and lower lows.
At zero, they need to go to QE. Each time they do QE it gets bigger.
The housing market is ludicrous, with people resorting to buying sight unseen (in the ~$600k range, northern VA).
The wealth gap is massive — and understandably so with the Fed buying financial assets.
Now we have 7 pct inflation and we are still at zero pct rates.
Will the Fed raise rates and risk blowing up financial assets and housing? I doubt it.
Does the world really want to use SWIFT and USD knowing that the US will seize your accounts if you don’t use heel to US ideals? I doubt it.
How is US going to address the wealth gap? Probably the USG will give handouts paid for by debt which is supplied by Fed monetization.
… I have no idea what I’m talking about. The only explanation I’ve heard that makes sense to me is from Ray Dalio. I’d love to hear a logical rebuttal or alternate interpretation of the current state.
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Northern Virginians are FOMO panic-buying homes. My coworker put in an offer $80k over asking before the home listed on MLS - sight unseen and with no inspection or other contingencies. Her offer was second best!
Last time I checked the Fed is still running at 0%. Can someone explain how this is not terrible? Perhaps Buffett can give a calming "patient is having a heart attack, fed is doing the right thing" talk.
Begin conspiracy theory nonsense ->
Can someone give a rebuttal to Ray Dalio's changing world order idea:
- World agrees to Bretton Woods based on a gold-backed USD
- USD loses gold backing, allowing printing
- Fed lowers interest rates, blowing ever larger debt bubbles
- Fed chooses inflation over debtor-crushing rate hikes
- Right vs left infighting about the wealth gap that grows with asset prices
- World tires of Bretton Woods, SWIFT, imperialism, etc
- Another nation comes up with an alternate system
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Some say a "true Munger high-conviction stock" must be a large percentage of Munger's "fully diluted" personal portfolio.
Using this definition, what are some of Munger's "true high-conviction stock" picks?
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Sunrider: if you are the content being monetized -- and I can see why you would feel that way given your contributions -- you should start your own site. And you can make it with or without ads - as you see fit. You could even structure it to pay contributors for their content like YouTube does.
I'd pay $5/month for COBF even with the ads.
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How much are you willing to pay to “upgrade” your account to be ad-free?
Amazon charges $20 per kindle to remove ads.
Too Easy Pile
in General Discussion
Posted
Thank you. From the 10K: "we owned approximately 81% of the outstanding equity interest in Sirius XM Holdings". I just though it would be highlighted with flashing lights [exactly] how many shares they owned.
For example, after just a few minutes I knew how many acres of oranges Alico owns (both producing and fallow). Not that LSXM should be doing what I expect...