HubbadaPow

I'm no activist either, but if the management CAN and SHOULD be changed, then someone might get involved and do the work for me. If management CANNOT be changed and they're doing a poor job, then I'm probably hosed as a retail investor.

Great points. I remember Bruce Greenwald saying that if you have a lot of asset value and small or negative cash flow, immediately go to the proxy statement to see how you can replace management. If you can't, just move on to something else. That seems about right to me.

Thanks for finding the reference Spekulatious. It takes a lot of confidence to make an individual stock selection and a lot of humility to put guardrails on that decision, but those two things together dramatically improve the chances of getting satisfactory results.

Ben Graham used a different approach to avoid sitting in value traps. He just gave each position a certain amount of time to appreciate and then he would sell it no matter what. I think a couple of years if memory serves. Some things are cheap for ages whether it comes down to an analytical mistake, market madness, or being early. The momentum overlay seems to work really well if you are doing statistical value.

I keep a copy of this on my desk. My CPA gets a kick out of it every time she picks it up. It's a great blend of comedy and timeless wisdom.

I just finished another read of my favorite book on risk management. The author allocated to many top hedge funds and analyzed all of their trades to look for insights. He essentially found that poor managers freeze when a stock moves against them 20-35%, neither selling nor buying more at the lower price. Winning managers simply do something. Additionally, the poor managers cut winners after 20% gains while winning managers let them run to 70%+ profits. It's important to remember that all of these managers are respected enough to earn an allocation from the author, but many of them commit seemingly obvious behavioral errors from time to time. Lots of brief case studies illustrate good and bad behavior. They cover styles ranging across value, momentum, 20 year holding periods etc. Lessons for all kinds of investors in this quick read. While there are doubtless many investing systems that work, the key lesson is that the system must align with the personality of the investor. Whether he robotically cuts his losses, doubles down on bargains, or invests like a business owner for the long-haul, anything is better than turning rabbit and freezing at the critical moment.

Point taken, Parsad. OTOH Sometimes things get a lot cheaper and look like a bargain only to fall considerably farther. That doesn't mean the first potential entry point wasn't "cheap", it just means you cost yourself a better opportunity. My friend observed that many investors who identify as "fundamental value" would avoid many analytical mistakes if they overlaid TA thereby lessening draw downs. Trying to throw OP a bone here!

A friend showed me something interesting several years back that basically overlays TA over fundamental value to avoid value traps. You basically wait for positive momentum on something cheap before buying. I've never spent much time on TA but I think about my friend every time I find myself in a value trap.

I always imagined MA writing Meditation for his son, who was...not stoic

Check to see if your VC will buy your shares at a small discount to the last price they paid (10-25%). It may be an easier transaction and higher price.

I like individual muni bonds in taxable accounts so I can take tax losses while preserving the yield. Tax free income with occasional tax losses is a nice combo. Any rich person who doesn't own some bonds is crazy.