Stuart D
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Posts posted by Stuart D
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Between this shale call and their note on Saudi’s reserves, the supply side isn’t looking great. To balance the market it’ll need some more Venezuelan production (or maybe Argentinian shale?).
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12 hours ago, Malmqky said:
VAL, probably making it a real position at this point.
Nice. Increased BB. Seems like a good setup.
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10 hours ago, Malmqky said:
UNTC
10% of market cap in cash
25% dividend yield, clean balance sheet. 8ish years of production left.
Company has profitable assets it’s liquidating conservatively worth $600m+ vs $400m market cap. Not including the recently sold land, which will be another $5.50 per share in cash.
Woah, sounds interesting. Was the recency drop from $65 to $41/share due to some dividend payments or capital returns?
edit: ok I’ve found the thread for this name. Looks like it was a big special dividend.
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Yeah, great book. I listened to the audiobook after hearing the author being interviewed on the Grant’s podcast. Well worth a listen/read.
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8 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:
Oxy buying Crown Rock for $12B. Stock and debt issuance.
These oil guys and gals can’t help themselves…
It’ll be interesting to see how Buffett responds to the “what do you think of the OXY acquisition” questions he’ll get next May at the AGM. -
On 9/21/2023 at 11:33 PM, Jaygo said:
I truly believe that successful investing is hampered by extremely high intelligence. This stuff is not that complicated to do reasonably well and most very high IQ people need to find esoteric shit to do to feel good about themselves.
Ive said before ive got a buddy who is dumb as a bag of hammers and he has time and time again crushed it on simple and inelegant but obvious in hindsight investments. Facebook ipo, lake shore gold, Florida real estate in 2010 or 2011, oil in 2020,
just loads of stuff and im like, huh you did what? ya well im on facebook and everybody i know is so its a got to be good buy. Well i went to Fort Lauderdale once and there's no snow in winter so I bought a 3 bed condo for 60 grand. He still has a damn Hotmail account and he's 8x his money on google.
I just wished my lack of intelligence would translate to some gains lol
I listened to a yet another value podcast that reminded me of this post. Host Andrew was discussing the difference between a good investment idea vs a good podcast idea.The good investment idea can be a 40 seconds pitch, eg. this 50c dollar bill is being liquidated and immediately distributed. While a good podcast idea is often something complicated like Cable, with lots of discussion points, risks, strategies etc.
A good reminder to myself to keep things simple.
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On 11/16/2023 at 6:57 AM, Parsad said:
It went from criticisms to some downright nasty things...the thread had to go. Please keep things to critiques on this thread. Cheers!
Re: the previous Pabrai thread deletion
Is there a way to keep the previous thread, whilst removing the posts of concern?
I say that because the Pabrai thread was essential reading for anyone thinking of sending him money or even those of us who spent some time watching his videos.
With the rest of the investment industry, (right up to Charlie Munger himself), swooning to MP, it was nice to have an alternate view here on CoBF.
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8 x staff members seems like a lot:
- 1 x CEO
- 2 x vice presidents
- 1 x office manager
- 3 x Office assistants
- 1 x office assistant Team leader
I suppose maybe some of them are part time.
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On 10/18/2023 at 10:18 PM, Spooky said:
This chart has me wondering what is going on in Brazil...
Well the central bank has interest rates at 12.25%, so I’m assuming that’s keeping a lid on equity valuations.
And on the ROE side Peteobras is something like 12% of the index & they’ve been doing well recently.
There’s probably a bunch of other commodity names in there (Vale perhaps?) that would likely have done well over the past couple of years too.
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I found the Berkshire AGM’s on YouTube as a great place to start.
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2 minutes ago, WayWardCloud said:
Spirit Airlines (SAVE)
Nice. I’m surprised the spread is still so wide.
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On 10/11/2023 at 11:19 PM, ValueMaven said:
I was blown away by Todd's interview. You can see why WEB and Charlie hired him. Same for Ted. These guys are unique and PERFECT for the culture at Berkshire.
+1
Yeah, that was great. I’m going back to listen again.
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Really enjoyed the Bill Chen YAVP interview. I still find it hard to get excited about a 7% cap rate, but I do like his point that some public co’s have long term debt fixed at 3-4%, so with any sort of rental appreciation the math starts to become more attractive.
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13 hours ago, mcliu said:
+1 Yes.
Why was it deleted?
Yeah, I kept looking but couldn’t find it, so I guess it’s deleted.
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This may have already been mentioned, but following the Japanese companies that have recently started buying back shares might be a good pond to fish in.
I googled Japan buyback screeners and one of the first results (quant investing.com) had the following table:
I checked the first two names on https://www.kaijinet.com/jpExpress/ and the recent buybacks looked relatively large.
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20k to $23m in 72 years assumes 10.28% inflation per year.
I was running the numbers and it’s incredible how much of a difference tiny changes in the compounding rate affect the final number.
eg. increasing from 10.28% to 11%, increases the total from $23m to $36m, and reducing from 10.28% to 10% takes it down to $19m.
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Yeah that Odd lots Bill Gross interview was awesome.
Another good one popped up this morning From Grant’s:
https://overcast.fm/+TYmB5aFFw
It features the author of “Numbers go up: inside Crypto’s wild rise and staggering fall.” -
Agreed, this board is excellent.
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A good article from Joe Aston at the AFR covering the recent manic moves from Twiggy at FMG:
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/andrew-forrest-a-hard-act-to-follow-20230830-p5e0ry
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Hard to believe this report is from a $60b company.
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11 hours ago, bizaro86 said:
I'm on vacation in Australia right now, and they're definitely following it here. Random tourist guides mention it in their spiel, signs/ads everywhere, etc.
Yep, it’s definitely big here. The most watched (Australian) television event since Cathy Freeman won the 400m gold at the 2000 Olympics.
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Thanks for posting - I liked the discussion on Texas controlling the oil price from the 1930’s.
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I like doing one exercise per gym session. It keeps them short & focused.
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On 12/4/2022 at 10:48 AM, Stuart D said:
PBR out of the Money calls. The Brazilian index trades at a 5-10% dividend yield. If PBR trades at a 10% yield, every OTM option is in the money. At a 5% yield, all options are 10-100+ baggers. If oil rips…. the numbers get silly.
Pbr floated the possibility of repurchasing shares. There is only ~$70b of market cap. The Government own’s ~$25b and fcf was $40b.The calls could be very attractive if they get aggressive on the buyback.
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted
Agree Valaris is looking good here. Fcf starting to roll in.