Zorrofan

Twacofca, Are you using the movement of the WSBase to predict the general market direction? Is this not similar to using the old M3 to try and predict a downturn in the economy? roughly what is the lag between the WSBase and S & P movement? thanks for a most interesting post! cheers Zorro

thanks - interesting presentation cheers Zorro

IMHO it is a lose-lose situation at this point - if Sardar gets the comp package passed then he skims the cream for himself, if the comp pakage doesn't pass does he even stay or do his best efforts go to the Lion Fund once more? cheers Zorro

I know that FFH & Prem own Sandridge, and Sam Mitchell likes it as well. Sam had said that the recent takeover of Arena was a good move, though comments seem to suggest the price was okay not great. Sandridge has now modified the takeover terms, uping the offer by 6%. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDg1MTZ8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1 cheers Zorro

News that Dell may be taken private. FFH has a few shares...... http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20006785-260.html cheers Zorro

I just read over their website and their latest annual report. Real impressive track record, and management is closely tied to the performance of the company. Some of their businesses are in industries that might continue to struggle a bit in the near term (they're heavily invested in health care and the airline/aerospace industry), but otherwise seems like a well run company. They're apparently the 2nd largest employer in Canada after the federal government. They posted a loss of $84 million for the first quarter.

Sorry if this has been posted previously.... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704167704575258442772338282.html#articleTabs%3Darticle cheers Zorro

Thanks for the link - an interesting read!! Here is a great article detailing the dangers of VXX. Thanks to calonego for the blog link on a different thread. http://adventuresincapitalism.com/post/2010/04/28/Designed-To-Fail.aspx

Oldye Why do you think consumption is going to drop? As far as energy security, reducing the trade deficit and greenhouse gas emissions it makes more sense to switch from oil to natural gas ala Pickens and his natural gas vehicles. Curious about why you're thinking consumption is going down? thanks Zorro

Sanj, FFH should shine in this type of investing environment. So, I think you should do okay buying and holding FFH but no doubt the volitility will present opportunities. The one point I am going to disagree with you on is the whole capitulation idea. Yes corporations may be in good shape but many investors will still sell. I don't think the bubble has been fully burst yet, as we never got to the levels seen in 73/74 or in 82 .... One thing it will be is interesting!! Cheers Zorro

I picked up some SD - we have Tom Ward, with just under 26m shares (so he is well motivated), FFH and Prem personally holding as well. I was considering VXX as a way to profit from the volitilaty. Any thoughts on VXX? cheers Zorro

Sanj, I am in no way as eloquent as Packer, but I agree with everything Packer said. I am sure if you set up a holding company (or even better used a company such as ITEX) many of us would be interested in participating. While many had high hopes for Sardar we may have missed what is right under our noses - you. Please know that your hard work and integrity have not gone unappreciated.... cheers Zorro

thanks for posting this! cheers Zorro

I should have been more specific - I am refering to the presentations, as in the one given at the AGM. Everything else is well laid out. If however the presentation is there but i am just not seeing it, a point in the right direction would be appreciated! cheers Zorro

Sanj, Next time you speak to Prem, perhaps you could suggest that FFH add a section on the website for downloads? Just a humble suggestion...... cheers Zorro

Can anyone about a bit more color on Sam's comments. He strikes me as FFH's CM. Always interesting to hear what he has to say..... cheers Zorro

If Goldman did hide it, do you think WEB/CM would sue? That would really be a blow to Goldman..... cheers Zorro

Technological advances have increased the amount of gas that is recoverable, however the big question is how much of it can be economically recovered at these levels. IMHO it will require higher prices to make it economical to recover the majority of the shale gas. At this point there are a number of producers producing gas, while losing money, just to keep cashflow going. Higher prices may mean waiting for a number of the weaker players to go under, leaving the stronger players who can reduce production in exchange for higher prices. I think Ward understands this and thus is positioning SD for the wait.....But while on the topic of SD, if FFH has been buying more when do they need to file? cheers Zorro

Myth, Long-term natural gas should do well. How well depends on a host of factors: is oil production reaching it maximum limits (i.e. peak oil), what are the decline rates for conventional natural gas production and shale gas (quite high for both I believe), will carbon emission restrictions encourage natural gas over coal-fired electric generation, will Pickens get his natural gas powered cars? But yes, long-term I think pricing will improve. As far as SD goes - It helps that both FFH & Prem bought in, though it would help even more if they bought more yestersday and/or today. Ward has a lot at stake personally, seems smart (SD is putting the emphasis on cashflow not just growing production), and I think the move to oil is a good one. The price may be on the high end though, but it should buy the company time until natural gas does recover. SD seems to have some very interesting gas fields when pricing does improve. That's my $0.02! cheers Zorro

Listened to the conference call yesterday. Arena management was upbeat about gaining the long-term exposure to SD's gas assets. Arena shareholders end up with 47% of the combined company. With Forest and now Arena assets SD is the major player in their region. cheers Zorro

Still listening to the conference call from this morning, it appears Arena had some operational issues. Arena had some problems with gas plants and hooking up oil production to pipeline operator.... Would love to know if FFH bought more today..... cheers Zorro

Will be intersting to find out Prem's reaction. i agree that they are heavily diluting existing shareholders, but Ward is taking a hit too. Could be that he is doing this to keep SD afloat until natural gas prices rise, and this means he feels that is further away than previously thought..... cheers Zorro

oldye, Could you please clarify? thanks Zorro

Have to like the sound of that! Starting to sound a little like BRK in a way, long-term holding of blue-chip stocks with solid moats...... cheers Zorro

Here is a link from the Wall Street journal (sorry but subscription is required). My point in starting this thread was more of a comment that I feel the recovery is no where near as strong as some feel and that caution may be warrented...... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704188104575083332005461558.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews This link is not a paid site, but has an interesting chart on bank loans http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-commercial-and-industrial-loans-at-all-commercial-banks-2010-2 cheers Zorro