SHDL

Thanks. So these ETFs are basically selling a regulatory loophole.

Is there a reason why you prefer something like SDS over just shorting ES? I don’t see it, but I may be missing something.

I believe his take on this is that classical value stocks are underperforming because they are being sold by active managers who tend to be value oriented and are facing net redemptions as their core clients retire, and they are not being bought enough by the index funds that younger people tend to buy. For banks though, you are probably right. I’m sure there are plenty of active managers who are underweight/short them at the moment.

I’m glad you guys liked it. As to whether you can make money from this, that’s hard to say. He doesn’t really give a stock pitch, just an indication that his fund has lots of cash and a certain kind of straddle (which is vague enough to repel any cloners). But if you understand what he’s saying there are some useful takeaways. For instance if you are long only with a quality/growth focus you have a nice tailwind but you may want to be hedged if you want/need to avoid big drawdowns. Or if you are more of a classical value person you may want to pay special attention to catalysts and exit strategies because betting on valuation mean reversion may not work as well as it has in the past.

I don’t think you are missing anything. The position you are thinking about establishing in your taxable account is called a bear call spread in case you want to look it up. I also don’t think there will be a wash sale issue here as long as the options have different strikes.

I think this is a little hard to generalize. One thing I’ve noticed is that a lot of young professionals here seem to be going Metro-free. They live not too far away from their offices, walk/bike maybe 15-30 mins to work, and use Uber for everything else. Areas like Logan Circle are/were indeed doing quite well even though there are no conveniently located stations nearby.

yup. x2 (joke intended) Probably good timing, though I’m no fan of inverse/levered ETFs.

This was one of the most interesting macro/quant discussions I found recently: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-grant-williams-podcast/id1508585135?i=1000483139066 The guest is Michael Green and he talks about how the rise of passive investment vehicles seem to have made the US stock market more prone to extreme boom/bust cycles since around 1995. He also discusses what that means for various investment strategies and how he’s running his fund in response. The fund’s website: https://www.logicafunds.com/

Yes the answer depends a lot on what you’re interested in. A few things to note: 1. The NW (which includes Georgetown) is the historically rich neighborhood. 2. The rest of the city has gentrified a lot over the years, so keep that in mind when reading older documents or asking people who lived here years ago. Logan Circle for instance was known as a pretty dangerous area until not too long ago, but now it’s a hip neighborhood for yuppies. Walk a few blocks east and things start to look sketchy. 3. There is a “Chinatown” but if you go there you will know what the quotation marks mean. :)

I don’t think there is a particularly good argument. Their decision to go with an index fund like approach was most likely a compromise given that they didn’t have the time/resources to do fundamental analysis on each issuer and also (less importantly) they didn’t want to look like they were actively picking winners and losers. It’s also noteworthy that the Fed didn’t really need to buy anything to prop up the markets. Broadcasting their intentions was enough. They probably could have gotten away with buying nothing at all.

“Coronavirus: Japan's mysteriously low virus death rate” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847

Are they marbled like this? I will do a blind taste test vs this beauty and get back to you. Yeah, that Costco one is a little out of my price range Imagine making a truffle cheesesteak sandwich with that? $120!

Are they marbled like this? I will do a blind taste test vs this beauty and get back to you.

I saw higher prices (and product shortages) around March-April but I lost track after that because I started getting my groceries delivered from a different store. Anyway, in my area you can get Costco items delivered through Instacart and they have ribeyes listed at $14.7/lb. Might be worth checking out.

“Trump promised to pay for Covid care. But patients with long-term symptoms see huge bills.” https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/24/trump-pay-coronavirus-symptoms-338924

https://vdata.nikkei.com/en/newsgraphics/coronavirus-economy/

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200421/p2g/00m/0na/083000c Only 18% of Japanese have stopped going to work due to COVID-19: poll TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Only 18 percent of people in Japan have stopped going to work due to the novel coronavirus, the lowest level in 26 countries and territories covered in a recent survey. https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200413/p2a/00m/0na/011000c Quite a number of people are seen commuting to work wearing masks on a train bound for JR Osaka Station, despite the prime minister's urges for a 70% reduction, in Osaka's Kita Ward on April 13, 2020. (Mainichi/Tatsuya Fujii) IZUMISANO, Osaka -- The area around JR Osaka Station remained crowded with people on April 13, despite Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's push to reduce commuter numbers by at least 70% following his April 7 state of emergency declaration. I saw those too which is why I thought this was interesting. They forwarded me the following which tracks what happened over time (using Google’s smartphone tracking data): https://vdata.nikkei.com/newsgraphics/coronavirus-economy/ As you can see things like commuting, public transportation use, and recreational facility visits were down 50-60% or more at one point vs early Feb.

I just spoke with some folks in Japan. Interestingly, they told me their cities were effectively shutdown because most people were staying home and many businesses were staying shut — both voluntarily, i.e., without being forced to do so by the government. They closed their schools and started restricting international travel very early in the process too. That is in addition to almost everyone wearing masks and everything that’s already been discussed in this thread. Just FYI. I don’t think the US has any chance of being like them.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-talks-juneteenth-john-bolton-economy-in-wsj-interview-11592493771 :o

There should be executive order for all rich people to book a dinner, stay, golf package at Mar-a-Lago or do time. We should not have unpatriotic behavior of hiding in their mansions. Jawohl! I don’t know the current status but there was some chatter recently about making leisure travel expenses tax deductible for the year or something like that. Not kidding. :o For people who are not scared to travel/etc., there might be some good travel opportunities around. ./shrug Airfares and air travel though might not be very attractive, since airlines cut a lot of flights. https://www.fox5ny.com/news/new-stimulus-package-could-include-4000-vacation-credit

I suspect that is coming soon. And if it does, I think that it will be, shall we say, disruptive. Imagine all those call options being sold to close or expiring and dealers unwinding their hedging positions all at once... I don’t think the market has the depth to absorb that kind of selling at current prices.

This could be partly because some of the competitors are closed. Moraine Lake Lodge for instance won’t be taking overnight guests until August it seems.

Yes the guy has a cautious/bearish bias and that is something to keep in mind. I’ve followed him for years now though and I get the sense that he’s unusually bearish this time. For instance in that 2010 article he says he’s trimming his equity positions very slowly and that high quality stocks should do fine or outperform. Whereas now he’s saying sell all your US stocks or even short the market. I’m not so sure if that is a good idea but he certainly has my attention.

Somewhat anecdotal but a lot of folks seem to be following the playbook: save up now, put the cash in the market, get a nice return, then cash out and spend it on something nice once the pandemic is over. It’s a good plan but there is one problem: it won’t work well if everyone tries to cash out at the same time.

Grantham now seems to think this is a real bubble: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-legend-who-called-3-stock-market-bubbles-says-this-one-is-the-real-mccoy-this-is-crazy-stuff-2020-06-17 He has a history of calling these things correctly and taking action 1-2 years before they end, so that is something to consider.