nickenumbers

Has the $1MM been transfered into the Trustee Account yet? Or is he searching his sofa for the last few dollars..

Whitney Tilson = Charlatan

Bahhhaaaahhhaa.. I was worried about my Soviet made computer, and my Soviet Shoes, and the Soviet companies that I invest in.. ;) baaaaa

thepupil. Flipping excellent answer! A+. Slap my grandma for the use of data and integrated opinion. I understand it is an opinion, but I appreciate and understand your narrative. Thank you. Relevant to WEB, I think your thought that he is talking about entities that he is competing with for deals... That does make sense with regard to his comment on CNBC. Again, thanks a bunch. I nominate you for King of COBF on 2/26/20! ;D

What do you guys make of this? [i mean I understand the words, and the concept.] Is Buffett indicating that debt is back out of control and we should be realistically concerned about a debt bubble fueling the stock market rise? I know this concern comes up from time to time, but I wonder if he was exaggerating to make his point, or if he actually believes that we are back to fast and loose lending. A-la 2005-2007 If you have any data or charts to prove your opinion, that would be appreciated. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/full-transcript-billionaire-investor-warren-buffett-speaks-with-cnbcs-becky-quick-on-squawk-box-today.html

If shareholders DO respond to the 1-800 number and sell $10M, or $20M or $50M.. How will we, the normal Joe/Jill, investing public find out about it? Will it be reported at the end of a trading day as a block sale? Or will we have to wait until the end of a quarter and look in the 10-Q, or 10-K? Thanks.

I love the discussion thread. Thanks for all the opinion and variety of opinion. None of us is as smart as ALL OF US. I can see some progress from the old Geezers [Geezers who I admire]. Repurchase of some treasury stock, $5B and 1%. Bring Jain and Able in for prime time Q&A, no longer stuck at the Thanks Giving "Kids Table" Note about repurchasing large blocks of shares in the letter, with a Phone number no less :o. [Who knows the intent, but he wrote it in black and white. Thats gotta mean something.] Sold the Newspaper business. From a Wall Street perception perspective, things are a little difference and some change is happening. I peg the IV at least at $270 after the math.

Baaahhhhhhhh......... ;) ;) :P Maybe some brave soul will hazard a guess.

All, I am performing a DCF valuation on FRFHF. I have completed it, but I need to update some of my inputs with you guys that know a little more about this firm. Revenue Growth Rate Assumptions- Over next 5 years, and then remaining 5 years? [Or however you want to provide it to me.] Tax Rate Assumptions- What do you think tax rate on it is going to be over the next 10 years? I don't need super precision. BS Investments- Are the Bonds, Preferred Stocks and Common Stocks quality and liquid? Thank you in advance.

All, Thank you for this thread on the book Distant Force. I was going to get it, but instead I am going to read the articles and related content. The general consensus was that the book was a dull read on a very interesting topic. The book is a little expensive and out of print to boot. The articles, studies and links give me more than enough to satisfy my appetite. Henry Singleton is really unique and special!

Attached! I salute you, Daniel! :-*

Guys, One of the things that I do for fun is to listen to earnings calls of companies and competitor companies in which I am interested. [Nerd alert, I know.] Why does the sound quality of the reporting company usually similar to a phone call from 1935? Either you can hear the CEO, but no one else, or it sounds like 4 managers who each make $7MM per year are passing around a phone to share. "Here Sally, they asked about marketing...." The analysts that call in are loud and clear, but the responding subject company is in a phone booth in the arctic circle during a Blizzard. One that comes to mind specifically is the Tesla earnings call quality. They are horrible. Hard to hear and just embarrassing for Tesla. They can solve complicated engineering, science and physics and yet they can't buy or rig up a decent conference phone? Same with the Rail Road, UNP. Is this just me, or have I uncovered corporate America's secret plot to make earnings calls difficult for me to listen to? http://www.businessphonescalgary.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Why-People-Buy-Phone-Systems-Broken.jpg

Does anyone have a reasonably good method of investing in China over the long term given the exchange rate risk over time? [individual Investor] For example, lets say one purchased a couple great Chinese companies, held them for 10 years, and by that point the value of the Yuan was down 50% or more to the dollar.

Excellent resource CoBF. COC, John, Bookie, Wabuffo, gold stars for the lot of you, take the rest of Friday off. The XIRR, is flipping cool and easy in excel. It is Slick enough to slide on barb wire! It is slicker than cat shit. I have been wondering how to do that, and it has been right under my big nose. Thanks to all!

John, Yes I do! ;D

Does anyone have an spreadsheet calculator or can you direct me to a calculator to perform the following: We all know how to calculate the rate of return for a certain time period when the principal is a fixed amount. But, what if we add to or subtract from the principal during the time period. I can calculate it adhoc, but I wanted to see if someone has something elegant, or clean where you put in the starting and ending dates, and the date of the addition or withdraw and the calculator performs the rest of it. I think I could build it in a spreadsheet, but I am trying to just find something open source and ready to use. Thank you!

John Hjorth, Thanks for the post and the perspective. Thinking of BRK as a store house of Cash and T-Bills as a proxy for taking a bit more measured risk in other positions in my portfolio is a creative thought. Thank you for sharing it and I have not previously considered that. It reminds me of the Seth Klarman/WEB quote "The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own." It would be exciting of BRK were to repurchase shares, but I prefer for them to just put it to its highest and best use.. [longinvestor- good topic]

Longinvestor, That is a good summary you have outlined. It makes me stop and reflect on the situation at BRK. BRK has admitted to creating a company where piles and piles of cash pour into HQ. And their job is to allocate it to highest and best use. Allocate, allocate and when they have more than enough cash and no other alternatives and the BRK share price is additive to Intrinsic Value, repurchase shares..! Our Shareholder collective patience is exhausted with the promise of BRK share repurchase. If BRK has made meaningful share repurchase in the last 3 months, EXCELLENT! If not, I just shake my head at this point.

So cool! Thanks chesko182. This is Sweeter than stolen honey!!! I can't wait to listen to it.

Can anyone shed some light on the valuations for the Construction Materials Companies? I have performed DCF analysis on Vulcan Materials [VMC], Martin Marietta [MLM] and Summit Materials [sUM]. I can't even come close to the valuations that support the current share price. After I subtract for debt, often I am at a negative value of equity per share. Is there some industry practice that I am not aware of, like valuing stone reserves at $0.25 per ton, in ground or something? Based only on FCF, growth rates, etc, their trading values do not make much sense to me at all. I am deducting for trended year by year future Capex, as it is a real cash flow cost. Maybe that is part of the difference. I honestly think that I already know the answer to my question. These things are way over valued, and people have bid them up to sill multiples based on hopes of infrastructure spending in the future, but I would like to better understand their math. I am also open to the possibility that my math and assumptions could be wrong. Can anyone shed some light? Thanks.

I continue to work my way thru the BRK Shareholder meeting content and I found this new information for me. Really interesting comments on Henry Singleton [i am a fan and an admirer of him], from Charlie. They were neighbors, who knew! Enjoy!!!!!! 34. Follow Teledyne CEO Henry Singleton’s lead WARREN BUFFETT: Doug? Sort of a lead-in to you, Doug. (Laughter) DOUG KASS: Warren, in a previous answer to a question, you suggested, I think for the first time, that when you’re gone — and everyone here hopes that’s not for a very long time — WARREN BUFFETT: No one more than I. (Laughter) DOUG KASS: I thought you would say that — You’re going to move — Berkshire will likely move — to a more centralized style, or approach, to management. My question is, in the past you’ve demonstrated a great deal of respect for Dr. Henry Singleton, the founder and longtime CEO of the diversified conglomerate Teledyne. You have written about Singleton, quote, “Henry is a manager that all investors, CEOs, would-be CEOs, and MBA students should study. “In the end, he was 100 percent rational, and there are very few CEOs about whom I can make that statement,” close quotes. Prior to his death, he broke up Teledyne into three companies. Dr. Singleton told our mutual friend, Lee Cooperman, that he did it for several reasons. There was one reason in particular that Lee mentioned to me that I want to ask you about. According to Singleton, Teledyne was getting very hard to manage for one CEO. What would you say about the Berkshire situation, given your company’s greater complexity, size, and the management issues that you faced in the last three years? And what is the advisability of restructuring Berkshire into separately-traded companies along business lines? WARREN BUFFETT: Berkshire, to me, seems about the easiest company to manage imaginable. And if you took an earlier answer — and I understand why you did, that implied greater centralization after my death, there will be a tiny bit more, just in terms of the small companies. But I do not anticipate any change of any real significance. Now, Charlie knew Henry Singleton, and I think it might be interesting for Charlie to give you his views on what Singleton did right and, eventually, wrong. And, I’ll answer the last part of your question, though. Breaking it up into several companies, I’m convinced, would produce a poorer result. Certainly now, and I believe in the future. Charlie? CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, Henry Singleton was a genius who could play chess blindfolded just below the grandmaster level and never got less than an 800 on any complicated math or physics exam. And, I knew him. He lived in my community. But he started as a conglomerate where he was very interested in reporting higher earnings all the time so he could keep the daisy chain going. And when he managed it on the way down, he bought in the stock relentlessly and very logically, like a great chess player should. And — but he managed those companies on a way more centralized basis than Berkshire has ever operated. And in the end, the great bulk of the enterprises, he wanted to sell to us. And by that time, he was ill and he really wanted to sell to us. And of course, he wanted Berkshire stock. And we basically said to him, “Henry, we love you and we’d love to buy your businesses, but we don’t want to issue Berkshire stock.” So, I don’t think you should get the idea that just because he was a genius he did it better than we did. He did, in some ways, because he understood these very high-tech businesses, but — WARREN BUFFETT: He played the public markets way better. I mean, it— CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. WARREN BUFFETT: We’re not interested in doing that, actually. CHARLIE MUNGER: No, we’re not. WARREN BUFFETT: And he was incredible in that, and he made a fortune for shareholders that stayed with him. But he was — to some extent, he looked at the shareholder group as somebody to be taken advantage of, and he issued stock like crazy. I’ll bet he did at least 50 acquisitions where— CHARLIE MUNGER: Yes. WARREN BUFFETT: He wanted to use a very fancy price stock. He was playing the game of the ’60s, and we actually have never wanted to get in that game. I mean, he promoted the stock. And, you know, he had the Litton Industries background on it, and it was a game that worked wonderfully if you didn’t care about how it ended up. And so we have not played that game. He was — in terms of wanting to get Berkshire stock — you know, he essentially was going into the third stage—(laughs) — of first issuing shares at overprice, then buying it back very underpriced, and then he was going to — CHARLIE MUNGER: — sell it to us for more than it was worth. WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, exactly. CHARLIE MUNGER: It was the wrong stock. But he was an enormously talented man and that cool rationality was to be admired. I like our system better. We’re more avuncular than Teledyne was. WARREN BUFFETT: Not the toughest test. (Laughs)

A horse that can count to 10 is not a Mathematician, it is a Horse.. that can count to 10... Charlie Munger

I would rather make money playing a piano in a whorehouse. --Charlie Munger!

Long Investor> Munger, “If there weren’t so many idiots we wouldn’t be so rich, would we, Warren?”

I have really gotten a lot from all of your opinions and input. I am not wedded to this argument that I am going to make, but I think it is worth considering. An argument can be made that WEB/CM have become a version of the old school consolidated assets inside the company with strong control by a few managers/BOD. [Like an old Railroad or Northern Pipeline.] The ability for the public to buy into the entity is available and encouraged, but the public doesn't really have much chance of forcing BRK's hand to make use of its extremely large cash position and assets. The Shareholders want them to use the cash to purchase businesses, or repurchase shares. Isn't this a flavor of exactly what WEB did when he got into value investing. He would Find something that trades at a discount to IV and go purchase it and wait until the scales change to make it rise to IV. Or he would go activist and push and prod. And here WEB is 40 yrs later with way way way more cash than he needs... And he has fortified himself into a position where he can not be forced to act. I am a super WEB/CM fan and I know they will continue to impress and astound us, but I think I see a little hypocrisy at play. Does this dog hunt? What do you guys think?