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tol1

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Posts posted by tol1

  1. Hi,

     

    I hope it is fine to post this on here - if not, please let me know.

     

    I have been working on the buy-side for a few years (investment banking before that), specifically for a large U.S. hedge fund in an event-driven strategy in equities.

     

    At this stage, I am looking to move into a fundamental strategy for the long-term, i.e. concentrated book, longer holding periods of 2-3+ years, and focus on Northern America and or Western Europe. I have been preparing my move including ideas and keen to hear from funds that are hiring.

     

    Thank you

     

  2. Short book with basic idea of applying value investing principles and valuation steps in today's world.

     

    I think this is one of the few books that actually applies a value investing valuation framework and reminds me a bit of the Greenwald publications, albeit not the same quality.

     

    There were a number of points that were not entirely clear:

     

    - Why are the deferred taxes discounted by 1 year?

    - Addition to goodwill: what if a material portion of total assets are goodwill, would one still add a multiple of SG&A to goodwill?

    - The margin of safety calculations are based on the growth values throughout: I would argue the margin of safety should be based on the EPV rather.

     

    Overall, I can recommend the book and would solely focus on the first few chapters.

     

  3. "Took another look now. Looks like things haven't been going so well for rails since 2014. I'm not sure their current valuations are justified."

    "Freight revenue per ton-mile has held up actually, but returns have converged. The industry has pricing power, but volumes have gone down materially."

     

    and:

    If you look at CNR PE now, it is in the historical low range.

     

    So a firm/industry hit by short term issues with good long term prospects. Value investing?

     

    This may belong to a separate thread, but a few comments about CNR:

    -consistent operating history

    -leader in efficiency

    -main transportation alternative for many (inescapable for some)

    -asset base resulting in very high barriers to entry

    -long term comparative advantage to other forms of transportation

     

    This is not a high level growth company and the capex burden is high. Also, pension liabilities are getting larger.

     

    But, if I would go fishing for 10 to 15 years, this stock/industry would be on my target list.

     

    Am also digging deeper in the NA railroad space and echo the suggestion to discuss in separate thread.

     

  4. Whenever I go back to this topic, I look at:

    https://www.aar.org/

     

    Every year, they come out with Class I statistics:

    https://www.aar.org/Documents/Railroad-Statistics.pdf

     

    Railways have a great past and great future and will likely remain as a privately owned infrastructure.

    Thanks for posting. I kindof forgot about the quality statistics that AAR puts out.

     

    Took another look now. Looks like things haven't been going so well for rails since 2014. I'm not sure their current valuations are justified.

     

    Freight revenue per ton-mile has held up actually, but returns have converged. The industry has pricing power, but volumes have gone down materially.

     

     

  5. The relatively brief book tries to outline the relationship and schools of thoughts between investing based on qualitative and quantitative criteria.

     

    As you know Damodaran is focused on number crunching and IMO tends to get lost in the rabbit hole with his valuation approach (just watch his Corporate Finance lecture where he spends hours on beta calculations etc).

     

    The book disappoints and the examples contradict what he tries to achieve: build a bridge between numbers and narratives. Why am I saying this? For instance, his valuation examples fluctuate heavily (2x based on amended assumptions).

     

    I prefer his blog and unfortunately cannot recommend the book.

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