ubuy2wron
-
Posts
705 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by ubuy2wron
-
-
If a settlement offer was coming re the FFH lawsuit would it not make sense that the parties offering settlement buy shares in FFH as a meaningful settlement would have a positive influence on the price. Just a thought.
-
Partner, If it is easy as you suggest to identify beforehand which of the Phoenix type of investments that Prem has made will work out perhaps you could identify today amongst the various fallen angels that FFH has exposure to will work out and why."Ex-ante, you really don't know which outcome you will get"
Stubble, while I respect and appreciate your opinion, I disagree with it. There is a huge difference with a localized cancer operated with a skilled surgeon and a generalized cancer operated by a plumber.
Abitibi was a "generalized cancer" situation and it doesn't take a 200 IQ to understand that. Canwest were a grayer situation, but still a generalized cancer with tons of debt on top of that.
There is the Berkshire, Johnson and Johnson, Wells Fargo, Walmart, etc." of this world, an there is the "Abitibi, TIG, Canwest, etc." of this world. And...there is the other ones between the two "categories". Some have times on their friends, some have time as their enemies.
Cheers!
-
Dealraker, I do not for an instant question your experience or credentials. However to state that Wells is 100 billion undercapitalized after the largest capital raise in its history based on the flimsy evidence of one anecdote should not go unchallenged. I suspect that few banks could meet all of their obligations if forced to liquidate in a very short period of time it is one of the reasons why the FED uses liquidation as a last resort for banks. I do not believe that Wells will be required to liquidate hence hitting the bid next week in the residential real estate sector is not a realistic expectation. I have heard much anectdotable information that Wells has in fact been the farthest ahead of the curve on loan mods regarding reisdential re.
-
I think Sanj has a journalist who is a Corner of Bershire reader . LOL
After reading about captured journalists and hedge funds I am highly supicious Sanj how many free burgers did you offer him.... shame shame ....LOL again
-
I think Sanj has a journalist who is a Corner of Bershire reader . LOL
-
I think if there is prosecutorial will ,Stevie will eventually serve time. I certainly hope they do not do a Milliken and allow him to keep a large part of his ill gotten gains and serve a nominal sentence .
-
Sorry for the previous post ,screwd up. Vinay you mentioned no bubble traded above 50% of peak valuations for a generation and then mentioned the nasdaq bubble and Japan. I am interested in this thesis what is your source for this observation. The clearest bubbles in the last generation were IMO residential real estate recently the Nasdaq in the last decade. Japanese stocks in the eighties and precious metals in the late 70''s. Currently I suspect that US treasuries are in bubble territory.
-
http://open.salon.com/blog/kind_of_blue/2009/12/18/something_just_doesnt_add_the_fk_up
http://blogs.surfermag.com/office-blog/north-shore-1989-vs-2009/
Seriously, DEFLATION??? For everything that really matters to me and the average Joe, we've lived in inflationary times.
"The price effects of inflation can occur in goods, which most people recognize as relating to inflation, or in investment assets, which people do not generally recognize as relating to inflation. The inflation of the 1970s induced dramatic prices rises in gold, silver and commodities. The inflation of the 1980s and 1990s induced dramatic price rises in stock certificates and real estate." - Prechter
This past decade has seen a large trading range for stocks & real estate, but as of now, stocks are 35% lower than the beginning of this decade, and the real estate bubble has burst. If we agree that US real estate was a 'bubble', -- no bubble has surpassed 50% of its peak value within a generation (Nasdaq bubble & Japanese stock bubble are still following this trend).
You are correct that 'commodity' and goods have not seen deflation over this decade, but we got our first deflationary panic this past year. We'll see how this plays out in the coming years.
cheers,
Vinay
-
It likely got pulled or added to an index the volume today is probably a result of that.
-
MR. Mkt in his infinte wisdom has decided that at least in Canadian dollar terms FFH is worth about the same as it was 12 months ago. If one looks back Prem had recently removed his equity hedges and telegraphed a series of all in bets. Today he has partially replaced his hedges and built a fortress balance sheet. Mr Mkt seems to only to be interested in FFH quarterly results hence the best guesses by some of the more informed posters here re this topic would be much appreciated as I would like MR. Mkt to pay for a nice gift for my wife for XMAS.
-
He was one of my heros for taking on Conrad Black and Hollinger . This took a great deal of courage which is something missing amongst the cadres of professional money managers. All too frequently when there is corporate malfeasance in the executive suite the reaction of investors is to sell the stock and move on. Thinking and ACTING with an owners mentality is one of the prime attributes of the value investor IMO. Mr Browne your clients and fellow value investors will miss you.
-
There is a rate of interest where I would vote yes and another that I would vote no
-
In my opinion the biggest risks in Canada in order of precedence are . Private mortgage Pools there are dozens of these of various sizes in Canada are opaque as heck and first to fail if houses start falling. Credit Unions especially Van City and Genworth which is a private sector mortgage insurer. I have considered shorting Genworth but have placed it on the two hard to ponder pile and invite the deep thinkers here to have a look. I suspect that it could go to zero pretty quickly if we have a spike in interest rates and residential real estate starts to fall.
-
Here is a link to current stats from a reputable source http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdfAlso, I'm sure you know this, but this thing about Canadians being financially conservative is a myth. Canadians have a debt to income ratio of 140% vs 132% for Americans. Almost nobody conservatively fixes their interest payments with long term mortgages; most take money for 5 years.
I did not know that about relative debt to income ratios... where can I find those statistics?
I agree that most people in Canada take mortgages with rates that reset every 5 years. I do not recall seeing 10 year mortgage rates listed in newspaper ads until the last last year or two (my memory could be faulty). Perhaps the banks have historically under-promoted the longer term fixed rate mortgages.
Canadian 5 and 10 year fixed rate mortgages are 5.6% and 6.7% at the big Canadian banks right now. The spread between these rates has sometimes been wider--reducing consumer preference to go long. Both rates are quite a bit higher than current US 30 year fixed rates (4.8%). Can anyone tell me why there are no 25 or 30 year fixed rate mortgage products in Canada? Do the banks in Canada consider it too risky on their part? Is the 30 year fixed rate mortgage in the US a recent development or something that has been around for a long time?
nodnub
-
Smaz I have used VRBO many times and I can say my experience has been 100% positive.Eric, thanks for posting (below) I will check some of those places out also! ;D
About Canada, can non-citizens purchase a home? I'd like to buy a house in Vancouver or Montreal and rent it out for 9 month periods.
I thought about buying a second home a year ago; fortunately I looked harder at VRBO.COM and that talked me out of it. Just rent a place for 3 months.
I've used VRBO several times in the past couple of years and recommended it to friends who have used it also. We have not had a bad experience yet so I recommend it. Nevertheless, I still hesitate and wonder whether I am going to get ripped off whenever I make the downpayment. Much cheaper and definitely more comfortable than staying in a hotel room esp if you are stayiong more than a week.
Thats great info OEC2000. Thanks for sharing.
Anyone else ever use this service?
-
Looks like I'm in the minority, but I'm completely comfortable there. I would respectfully suggest that Byrne has proven very little by getting these guys to settle out of court. There has been no "guilty" judgement, just an attempt by Rocker to terminate an expensive legal process that likely distracts them from their business and harms their reputation. The settlement means roughly nothing, as people settle out of court on a regular basis just to keep from blowing ridiculous amounts of money on legal fees (even if you are not guilty, sometimes it can be quite rational to settle out of court to make something go away....call it "protection money").
My interpretation of a $5m settlement is that Byrne didn't think he would be able to win the big prize at the big show. Principles be damned, he rolled over.
Let us hope that the FFH lawsuit is built on a stronger foundation....and that the defendants will still have some money left on judgement day.
SJ To suggest that Mr Byrne rolled over is disingenuous. As I am sure many are aware he has a much tougher fight and lawsuit against the prime brokers which in my opinion have been complicit re the naked short sale issue. I also suspect that Prem will be less likely to settle ,Copper River was basically a failed hedge fund, SAC et al still have a little money left.
These guys started out with manipulating tiny little speculative companies and kept moving up the food chain as their ill gotten wealth and influence grew, in the end they helped take down the largest firms on wall street and I think they are setting their sights on sovereign nations next.
-
I have read the article and the data WAS a correct description of the Cdn. vs US mkt however the Cdn mkt has changed significantly in the last 24 months. A very significant percentage of new purchase mortgages issued in Canada in last 2 years have been issued to buyers with very little skin in the game the banks in Canada are quite wisely not taking any of these high risk loans on their books they are passing the risk to the CMHC and to Genworth.
-
That I am not as brave as I thought I was. While I was willing to purchase during the decline I was unwilling to commit the last 30% of my cash. I went into the decline with a very large cash position( nothing seemed cheap enough and I was lucky) and bought stuff all the way down but when the March lows were made I was unwilling to deploy the balance of my cash. Many of the positions I held at the March lows have increased 500 to 1000% however my timidity cost me dearly, buying BAC @ 6 but not buying more at 3 buying Barclays @7 but not buying more when it was cheaper
-
Eric does that refer to vacation homes in general or just vacation homes in Vancouver. Vacation rentals in Vancouver do not work all that well from what I can see from the owners perspective in some markets however it appears that they can work fairly well. In fact rentals in VCR do not work at all. I have a friend who is renting a new condo and at market rents his landlord is generating a 1/2 of 1% cash on cash return.About Canada, can non-citizens purchase a home? I'd like to buy a house in Vancouver or Montreal and rent it out for 9 month periods.
I thought about buying a second home a year ago; fortunately I looked harder at VRBO.COM and that talked me out of it. Just rent a place for 3 months.
-
Bargainman, I would put Bill Gates in the admired camp ,I am unsure on how Mr Nobel was perceived by his contemporaries.
-
Rabitt no restrictions at all on foreign ownership of real estate and if you insist on buying in Vancouver I will sell you mineThe temptations that Tiger tackles tops those that typically trouble. I can't imagine cheating on my girlfriend, but I also can't imagine Miranda Kerr whispering her room number into my ear.
About Canada, can non-citizens purchase a home? I'd like to buy a house in Vancouver or Montreal and rent it out for 9 month periods.
-
Its actually Warren the non-investor I am more in awe of. Warren has managed to accumulate a large circle of people who truely love him while simultaneously accumulating a huge pile of dough a feat that through out history has been almost impossible. Many of the worlds wealthiest have been feared fewer have been admired but Warren is adored by many an accomplishment that truely makes him stand out.
-
I will not provide a link because the details are frankly sickening however if even a small portion of the alleged conduct ,revealed in unsealed court documents are true concerning former SAC employees then I suspect a scandal of Enron or Watergate is importance is starting to emergeYou guys might like reading this:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B31YT20091204
Check out this excerpt:
"In a lawsuit earlier that year Tong had charged that his male supervisor, Ping Jiang, then a top SAC trader, forced him to perform oral sex on him before completing a trade, according to people familiar with the investigation and court papers. Tong also alleged Jiang ordered him to take female hormones to turn him into "the ideal analyst/trader," combining both male and female characteristics, the court documents note."
Holy shit! hhahaha, wow. That reminds me of that Chinese guy at Enron that used to bring in strippers to the office.
-
Tiger would prefer to move to Canada right now.
I don't want Tiger in Canada. Keep him there!
I'm so disappointed...first Letterman and now Tiger. Two guys I always loved to watch and thought they were moral stalwarts. Why can't these guys just get a divorce or breakup with their girlfriend and then go do whatever the hell they want? Wouldn't that be much easier for everyone involved? Just plain stupid.
I can't look at either right now...especially Tiger...his wife is something to look at and he traded down to those wenches. If I hear anything about Peyton Manning, then I'm finished watching television for good! Cheers!
Wealth and fame seems to be the most effective aphrodisiac available for the female half of our species. Its easy to be moralistic however as us mere mortals do not have any moral dilemas to deal with in those matters as we are completely ignored by the fairer sex. I can remember reading somewhere that Henry Kissinger who physically has to be one of the most unappealing male specimans that god ever breathed life into, was constantly receiving letters from female admirers who wanted him to father their children. I suspect that deep down that behind many of our efforts to attain material wealth is a secret desire to have Tigers problems.
Blue Chip Stamp Companies
in General Discussion
Posted
It seems to me that to invest in cheap cash flow generators like savings stamp co''s one needs either a good capital allocator at the helm or a controlling interest so that you can make the capital allocation decision to turn it into a decent investment.