Myth465

I owned CHCG and CXTI. Made money in CXTI lost quite a bit in CHCG (at the time, now it seems small). Learned my lesson.

I think people get way to academic about this sort of thing.

Thats not fair. I was slightly excited when I saw it on the RSS and wanted to know the details. I need some other hobbies lol.

Phoenix01 you may have found a diamond in the rough. I like the bonus structure, and would look if I had more time and was less pig headed.

I would avoid at all costs. Steve Eisman is right on this one. Whether they add value or not (they dont), they depend on the State for funding and the State is broke. Someone will make money on them at some point, but thats the case with every stock.

Im down to 4% of cash ;D and just bought some stuff today. I need to raise some now though. I still think we are ranged bound and getting near the upper end of the range. I think you are a choosy Susie, but thats a good thing inmo. Making money vs keeping it are 2 very different things.

I dont see it. Tech companies are loaded with cash, and dirt cheap relatively and on an absolute basis. Companies and Managers have always overpaid in value destroying take overs. Tech will be the same. I would tread carefully. It will be fun to watch though.

This is also why I love investing. Plus we have Mr. Market keeping score. He sucks over the short term, but is pretty accurate over the long term. Lol Bronco as I said you have a high class problem. One day I hope to join you.

You may want to look at WDC. Its the only tech I own. I think its much cheaper then the others. My major issue is I wouldnt pay much more then 10x earnings for many of those megacaps in this environment. I would pay 15x back in 2004 when the world was normal. I also question the capital allocation ability of all of those listed but Intel.

I have never really got Joe, I tend to agree with Einhorn having never really looked at the financials or visited Florida lol. Seems like dead money at best.

Lol we all are trying to figure it out. I have found you get more and more comfortable holding it overtime :D. Its getting close to a year for me. Hopefully they are still doing the same sort of thing in 3 years, and people are still asking the same sort of questions.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/229332-five-offbeat-ways-to-generate-10-yields?source=email I was reading an article from the Fool which sums up FTR - 10% Idea #3 -- Rural Telecoms Interest in telecoms is mostly confined to the major companies like AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ), but I've found rich yields and a compelling story in a largely ignored part of the telecom sector -- rural landline phone companies. These quaint relics of an earlier age throw off huge cash flow and pay healthy dividends. Some, such as Frontier Communications (NYSE: FTR), have yielded up to 14% at some points this year (the yield is now around 9%). The rural areas these companies serve are too small to interest the big cable and wireless companies. As a result, there is little price competition. You might expect their revenue to be shrinking, but that's not the case. The reason is broadband Internet service. Yes, customers are shedding landlines in favor of cellular service, but they are also signing up for broadband. For most of these companies, broadband is only a tiny fraction of their revenue base, so there are still plenty of growth opportunities to continue powering yields. ----- Verizon sold some rural lines to FTR in a company changing move. There is a good thread on the board with good background info in it. They also have a few good analyst presentations on the website. http://cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/index.php?topic=2886.0 Basically they generate 20% FCF after growth capex. They have alot of debt, but currently all excess cash flow is going to owners and to repay debt. You get 10% while you wait and the debt is reduced by 10% which you should get back in deleveraging appreciation. Management seems sharp, but I have only known them for 1 quarter, (they said all the right things during the GS presentations). If they deliver synergies and broadband covers the disconnections then we should get 20% a year. I am hoping this is the baseline. If they bring the legacy lines from Verizon up to their metrics which are much better then we get even more. If it fails, then ...... I could see myself owning for a while if they grow the div and the performance holds up. ---------------- SSW was posted by JEast who has made me quite a bit of money (not alot for you guys but a decent percentage return) in this and a few other ideas. Its best to look at it like a floating REIT. The ships are long lived assets and they have basically removed risk from the business (outside of operating risks). Everything is hedged or fixed and the contracts are long in nature with the charters. The fleet is growing and the business model has been stress tested in 2008. If things go right they will -- Seaspan should generate at least $2 of CF in 2011. When all ships are delivered they will generate $300 million in distributable cash flow. SSW can be purchased for $740 million (a bit dated, I think its closer to $1 billion now), but will have some dilution. At a 7.5% - 10% FCF yield we get a stock price of $20-$25 vs. $10 today. If things go wrong and the world falls apart then of course. We loose.

I am a happy man. L, ATPG, and ESV have all moved up. Hopefully it continues. I wish I had more L, I wanted to buy more but it rebounded before everything else and held. I think something big for them is coming soon. They have raised quite a bit of cash. I look forward to the call, Tisch always has a fairly interesting rant.

I have liked Aspen for a while. Slightly annoyed I didnt buy at 24 when we were talking about it. The March options are cheap though. :P, and the season is over.

I think 1.1 isnt leaving alot of room for error in this environment. I think it will be interesting to watch, and think he may go a shade higher. Management will say book value now is higher. Either way I agree, there isnt much margin and it will be interesting to see him watch. The think about SNS is he got it for cheap so there was room for error. Also the more cash allocated to stocks the less yield they will have. Returns will then be extremely lumpy because Biglari seems to prefer take over vs. buy and wait. Lol congrats Harry, I am sure today has been profitable.

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/10/12/drilling.moratorium/ I think this was the salad oil incident of the year, and was quite profitable.

I think the offer is 1.1x book, based on the last Q, anyway. At the end of the day, it's the same premium Fairfax paid for Odyssey, and it's about what you can buy Fairfax for now... I'll trade FMMH shares for FRFHF on an even basis all day... (Although I'd rather buy at a discount). In any case, most of my thesis for being in FMMH was that you get good performing insurer at a discount with a money manager chomping at the bit to buy it up. Putting this one in the win column. Sorry I should have posted more detail. Its at 1.1, but I think he would be open to going higher. I think this was a sit down and lets talk offer, and not a final offer. I dont know why anyone wouldnt let this go for 1.25 of BV. BV is likely higher due to 3 months having gone buy.

I saw this on the highest movers and was wondering what was up. Slightly annoying I dont own any but great for Chou.

I think its a fair deal. Plenty of decent insurers under book value right now. I think most people will take 1.25 BV and be quite happy. I know I would. You could just rotate into another quality insurer at BV or a slightly smelly one at 80% BV.

I am a firm believer in 2 things. 1, I have no idea how this will all turn out, and niether does anyone else. 2, there is no free lunch. I never said that zero interest rates, were good. They obviously are good for some and bad for others. I think lowering rates is something just about all economist agree on though because - They help deal with upcoming maturities (it helps debtors) and it helps bailout the banks (via a backdoor). If you think the recover is weak at 1%, I think it would be extremely weak with 6% just based on housing. Like I said inmo there are really no good easy answers. Generally you just pick who you want to screw / help. These are 2 big risks with money printing. Thanks for posting them. Especially the one related to pensions. Bernanke has been hinting that these need to be addressed and can be basically cancelled, and you may be on to something as to why. The salary one is also interesting. I am not sure why they havent fallen for professionals. It seems to be tougher to get a job, but the salary is at a similar pre crash level if you can obtain the position. I believe you are correct, that they wont rise with crazy unemployment. They may go up but wont likely keep pass. It will be interesting watching it all play out. Agreed, and I enjoy reading your thoughts and predict that your ideas when posted will be quite popular given the Margin of safety you desire. I know I will be picking them over. Thanks again for the article. I really enjoyed his take on tax claims. Class A, B, and C stock. Buffett is extremely good at breaking things down.

I prefer LRE but they are at book value. I have to agree with Harry Long that if you want something below book look at CNA Surety. I also have been watching Aspen. Also why not FFH. I will be buying back soon, they are at BV but have done better then WM.

I dont really see what all the fuse is about. I would like to see his track record in non take over / arms length situations. I also think maxprogram is correct, he has shot himself in the foot and given every executive a reason not to sale.

For me anyone of my holdings could be a long term holding. The trick is IV must grow faster then the share price appreciation (taking into account the tax hit), and has to appear sustainable. I think this is more likely when companies feature owner managers and / or skilled capital allocators. This can also happen when the company is permanently cheap and Management buys back shares (similar to Ls) or fairly valued and the Management pays a consistent dividend. I could see myself holding the names below for quite a while. Seaspan Corporation SSW Winthrop Realty Trust FUR Lancashire Holdings LCSHF Lowes Corporation L Frontier Communication FTR

Thanks for the update Zorro, hopefully this is what pushed the shares down. Good point. I just wise he would sell more acreage and pay down debt. But I think you were on to something. You dont get a guy this ballsy making calm rationale calculated decisions. If thats what you want buy XOM. I dont really have a good reason not to buy, I questioned his numbers in the presentation, but the majors are paying up. Its hard to believe that the Chinese and majors are all idiots. What do you make of the forward sales though?

Interesting Dcollon. I enjoyed your question. Reading the article linked by our board Munger, it was interesting hearing Buffett discussing pensions as life bonds. I think its a big shoe to drop. A lady with a guaranteed pension at my job from her previous company was lecturing me about young people today not saving. I was thinking gee thats easy for you to say. In her defense she saved outside of her pension, but it will be quite interesting when Im her age. Most of my friends are living for today (more like yesterday given the debt) and have nothing for tomorrow. I saw a documentary on Frontline about Pensions and read Roger Lowenstein While America Aged. Both were extremely well done - In retrospect I should have shorted Muni Bonds and GM the day after finishing the book. He was proved right.