Myth465

http://www.democracynow.org/2011/3/3/really_bad_reporting_in_wisconsin_media I say it has nothing to do with Budgets due to the fact that a large tax cut caused the budget shortfall, and also due to the fact that the union already consented to lower benefits. Its pretty much about collective bargaining and ending it. Republicans dont like unions (hell I wouldnt if I was one) and want to bust them while they can. So first divide them (section off police and fire, we can get them later) then bust the big ones. Politics is all about alienating large blocks of voters lol, you just hope that your block is bigger than the one you are pissing off. Also very interesting. Libertarians favor the enforcement of contracts unless its contracts pertaining to unions or other groups they dont like. --- Its not just the CNN talking heads. The average American appears anti union (perhaps its just in the circles I travel in, and I know polls show otherwise) and wants the public sector to have the same raw deal that they have. Its all quite amusing to me. We really deserve the Government we have.

This could be a game changer. I was quite annoyed when Odyssey was stolen from me lol. Underwriting is the one feather missing from the FFH cap and I am so happy to see some sort of Integration of the Insurance units. Congrats to FFH. I look forward to adding to my 1 share and cant wait until FFH has LRE style underwriting with BRK style investing. 1+1 would then equal 3. ---- I support buying whole business but hopefully its not the turnaround sort we have been buying partials in. I wouldnt mind them buying FBK at $2 for shares and running it debt free. Its commodity but should do well.

These guys have been busy. Will have to look at this in more detail in a few weeks. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11030608/1/winthrop-realty-trust-announces-results-for-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2010.html

I didnt like the first one. Will check out the second.

SD I think you are dead wrong no Wisconsin. Its all just a political agenda and has nothing to do with budgets. I agree with you on most of the rest. Also what large companies / industries are switching to IFRS? Its not too popular in my field (Energy / Oil Field Services). I think the energy rally will cruse the economy. I like the thesis of rolling energy based recessions or at least slow downs . I just filled up and noticed on my cc tracker that it costs $45. Caused me to do a double take. Was used to $30. My oil and gas portfolio has made up for that, but it will be painful for Joe Six pack when that filters into food and other prices. Its already hit gas prices.

INMO you arent investing you are anchoring. Which I do as well. The question is not whether they are at the tops of their ranges or 52 week high. Its what are they worth vs. where they are trading. I see value in WDC and a few other holdings, but havent been looking. Work has been kicking my ass and I am simply trying to stay up to speed on what I own. I think there is much less value out there, but there is value. You have P&C which is at lows and some banking. Banking I dont get, but many are looking at insurers. Lol you will be the first one I call. I am hoping after the recovery to move from Accounting to Finance. Right now everyone looks like a genius so I am trying to stay centered and protect my seed capital. It does feel like everything is finally coming together though.

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11516 Very interesting interview. Similar to other interviews. I love his comments on Politics, and finance. I dont understand the republicans who like small government and big corporations and I dont understand the democrats who like big government and dont like big corporations. The rest is very good as well.

Thanks Alpha much easier.

I like the rolling 3 years - 5 years methodology. When the markets get frothy maybe push out to 5 years, and be willing to let it get to 1 years on undervaluation. Thats a good plan.

Still .01%. I own 1 share. Will buy more when the time is right.

Only investments. I have not added to my portfolio in over a year (outside of 401k additions which go into a large cap value fund). Most of the gains were fueled by ATSG, ATPG, ESV, DO, SD, FBK, and ROIC. I still think many of these are cheap, and am considering selling FBK to raise 10% cash which should make it easier to sleep. I really like my holdings and want to convert most of my leaps into shares for the long haul. Commodity rally has helped, but most of these were dirt cheap on $75 oil. I think Parsad said it best, by cheap sell dear. Buffett can only buy large caps at $20-$50 billion. He also prefers private businesses and has cash requirements. Following his moves unless you too have billions seems a bit foolish inmo. As I said things are frothy, cash is nice. On a 10%-15% pullback you can reload. It seems like everyone though wants cash for cash sake and I doubt those with 90% cash will buy on a 10%-20% pullback. I believe they want Feb March 2009 type prices. It may be a long wait. Also someone said if the market goes up 7%-8%, and then we get our 10% pullback you arent much better off. I say hold cash if you cant find anything. But I dont see anyone looking. Everyone is looking at GMOs 7 year valuation / or Schillers valuation and saying the market is above IV. 1. Well it could stay above IV for years, and probably should overshoot given the dramatic 2008 fall and 2, you arent buying the market (I hope). With all this talk about Buffett he still holds billions in equity and so does pretty much everyone else. ---- My pea shooter is empty. I am looking to find some bullets. Many dont realize that the point of having a loaded gun (whether pea shooter or elephant) is to actually shoot the damn thing.

I think those above 50% cash are fighting the last war. The markets are expensive and I am looking to raise cash from my 96% in equity, but I want maybe 10% - 20% cash. Everyone of my holdings minus ESV is still fairly cheap though. I dont see where you are getting too much risk. People seem to be doing the prudent thing. Not everyone can hold treasuries at 1% indefinitely waiting for the next big crash. Joe Six pack is starting to join the party, but isnt he always a johnny come lately. Markets should trade around their intrinsic value, but they often overshoot. Perhaps 7k was too low and 16k is too high but..... I suggest devoting energy to finding cheap companies instead of trying to call the next top or fight the last war. I guess the music is still playing and I am enjoying the dance. My port has doubled in the last 6 months while all the market timers were trying to time the market. Things however are a bit frothy, and I am updating my calculations and hopefully will be taking profits soon.

When the facts change ........ We had a real estate crash and a giant oil spill, high salaries are fine when things are well but not when... I also think he learned something from Einhorn, he said he agreed with most everything he said.

Lol Bronco you have some competition.

I am excited they even have a valuation posted which includes PV10 at Feb strip plus other acreage. My plan is to just use that number in my valuation. I will discount it and will hold due to call options on rising oil prices and a recovery in nat gas. With hedges going out 3 years, we should be well protected against pull backs and rolling recessions. Thanks CONeal. I am listening to the quarterly call today and hopefully the Investor day tomorrow.

Earnings yield is the inverse of PE. I prefer EY, but they are the same. http://moneyterms.co.uk/earnings_yield/

Honestly I am beginning to see your point, and find it hard to disagree. Its another example of the poor getting a free but not so great right, the rich getting a fairly cheap rise and those in the middle / upper middle being squeezed. I have even thought about it. LUK would be my role model though not Berkshire. Buy companies, minimize taxes, and sell high / buy low. Pay a small dividend to live on, and no dividend once I have enough outside capital. When I get old engage in tax planning to remove / eliminate taxes to heirs / charity.

Eric and Bronco one day I hope to have the networth to care enough to engage in these discussions. I also hope to one day employ ERICOPOLY style tax minimization techniques and to still have to pay about $750k in taxes. I would be a very happy man the other 364 days in the year. I agree with you though on the tax rates. Big difference between $199k and $25 million, $50 million, and $200 million. The simplified argument is lame at best.

Thats not fair. All the regular posters serve a different and very useful purpose inmo. For example you are usually good for a laugh and keep us updated on Loews, BRK, and related securities.

Thanks for the link. Will read it soon. I really enjoyed this and will use it. “To update Aesop, a girl in a convertible is worth five in the phone book.” - WEB

I agree completely. I think Maboussin adds almost nothing new to the topic of dividends & buybacks. What he says is obvious and I don't know why spends so many pages saying it. Is his job at Legg Mason just writing articles? LOL perhaps he gets paid by the word. They say incentives matter, its the only thing all economist tend to agree on.

I no longer read Maboussin articles. It takes him forever to say something that Howard Marks or WEB can spit out in a few sentences.

I am happy with Oil and happy with the guy running the company. He will likely hedge the hell out of oil going out to 2013. I would love to see over 100% of oil hedged out 2 to 3 years. Then we just focus on drilling. Ward has given us a stock tip imho. This oil boom will fissile out and its nice to know he is aware of that. Look for gas. I have found the catalyst I need. Once those rigs switch to oil, they will not be coming back to gas until the ratio is closer to 10 to 1 or 6 to 1. We just need decline rates to do what they do. I think 2013 to 2014 will be the year of nat gas. We will likely see prices at $6 to $8 which suck for those who paid up for $10 gas, but will be excellent for us. I would like to see more hedging, reduced interest expenses, more drilling, and more land purchases provided Ward finds something he likes. I think you are right and hope he ups the anti on rigs. I like his cost control mantra and we need more rigs to go with the hedges. The holy grail in my opinion is being able to hedge, and then putting underwater hedges into the new trusts lol. ----- Thanks for the updates on gas. I will have to look at the annuals year over year from 2008 till now. My guess is they have written off quite a bit of gas due to the gas being high cost. I would be interesting to know reserve numbers based on $6 gas, and PV10 value based on $6 gas and $100 oil. Especially consider they will be hedging oil out 2 years (hopefully more) for more than $100.

Also 1 last thing. Loews always and will likely always trade at a discount to IV. I think you want to hold or sell most of the time, and really want to buy when there is a double discount. When the subs trade at a huge discount, and you get the 30% holding company discount + deep / constant buybacks Loews is a big winner. Right now I agree with Bronco - BWP is overvalued slightly, DO is undervalued and should be worth at least $100 if not more, Highmount is in the tank but should be as well as the hotels, and CNA is underbook value and is being turned around.

http://cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/index.php?topic=3172.0