Myth465

Reports are very mixed. I know some people over there (including someone who just went back after the quake) and mostly I'm hearing that things are fine, though they are different from normal. A lot of news reports seem to be sensationalized. I am more worried about the new reports we're getting from our government that feel the situation is worse than the Japanese are claiming, and actual numbers seem to steadily be getting worse. Personally I'm taking it as a time to pause and reflect. Like I said I think you guys are blowing off something that could be pretty bad. Its radiation. You may feel fine and get cancer 5 years later. Reactors melting down in your city / country / hemisphere / world is not something to take lightly in my opinion. Every major Western country is telling their citizen to leave. The sky isnt falling, but this isnt planes hitting buildings or a bombing in London. Its the 5th highest recorded quake, causing a massive Typhoon, followed by a potential nuclear meltdown which involves 6 reactors. The world isnt ending, but this aint a typical 2 week news melodrama is all im saying.

I heard we are doing the same in the US, but to protect against airflow pushing debris down here to Cali. Not really sure why. Bill Maher when the Typhoon didnt hit Cali - he joked we would have a hard time making this about us. He was wrong.

Few will say no to QE3 when the shit hits the fan (even republicans)! This said I agree that it smells fishy and that this is a serious problem. I have lots of cash and I have resisted buying massively up to now. I agree, its foxhole time, and there are no Freemarket guys when shit hits the fan. Let the easing begin. Oil and other commodities will rally just based off perception crashing the economy. There is no free lunch. This is a good point and something I didnt consider.

Say welcome to QE3! Republicans? Must Read: Nassim Taleb On The Earth-Quake In Japan http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=126331 The Japanese Nuclear Commission had the following goals set in 2003: ” The mean value of acute fatality risk by radiation exposure resultant from an accident of a nuclear installation to individuals of the public, who live in the vicinity of the site boundary of the nuclear installation, should not exceed the probability of about 1×10^6 per year (that is , at least 1 per million years)”. That policy was designed only 8 years ago. Their one in a million-year accident occurred about 8 year later. We are clearly in the Fourth Quadrant there. ----- Warren Buffett - The important qualities you need are intelligence, patience, and interest, but the biggest thing is to be rational. In ‘97-8, people weren’t rational. People got caught up with what other people were doing. Don’t get caught up with what other people are doing. Being a contrarian isn’t the key, but being a crowd follower isn’t either. You need to detach yourself emotionally. You need to think about what is going on around you. A rationale person realizes that this is a big deal.

A man should marry up. Didnt Buffett say that as well. Nothing sadder then a rich man with an ugly girl.

I bought ATPG calls today, basically I figure its my last chance to buy at below $20 prior to the permit. Its a trade, which should be sold on any rally. I want FTR, and a few other things. Buying something down 5% when I was expecting a 10% correction pre Japan isnt exciting. Things need to get a lot cheaper.

Easy to say when you are in the US. Some times shit sucks. Haiti was pretty bad. This looks pretty bad. I shrug most things off and believe people are overreacting but I wouldnt go to Tokyo right now or in the next year or so, and I am going to Nigeria for work in April. Trust me I dont spook easy, but the Government has no incentive to level with its folks and the US "Experts" are telling everyone its pretty bad. You guys are hopeful, crazy, or both. This isnt a small deal that will be gone next month or the month after. It isnt some cracker jack economy run by some despot. Its the third largest economy in the world facing god knows what. Parsad has correctly outlined whats going on, and if the Japanese loose faith in their government and begin to scramble then ..... What would you do in if you were in Tokyo or within 100 miles? What would a rational person do? What do you think millions in Tokyo want to do after day after day of worsen news? What happens to the World Wide Economy when the third largest economy is cut off at the knees? An economy which was being held together by tape and glue, with a healthy dose of steroids? China slowing and facing inflation, oil prices at $100, the US the US, and chaos in the Middle East? This too shall pass (only because everything does eventually), but its a big deal. I wouldnt buy something cause its down 5% considering the situation, but thats me. Right now we are down about 10% and I think we were due that anyway before here.

The right answer. "We're running this company in the shareholders' interest ... Everything is for sale at the right price ;D". Perhaps its why I aint a CEO.

Myth, Touche. I'm not touching this one as their is way to much risk but it's been an interesting story to follow. Well I am following as well. But you put a great quote with what I believe is a crappy investment. Trash is sometimes trash, this isnt the eye of the beholder type of thing. That is just an ugly girl. It happens from time to time. Based on your quote you disagree, otherwise why put the quote :D. I am like thats an ugly girl, and you are like there are no ugly girls, and I am like man thats just an ugly girl.

Seems like High Yield is rallying FTR and ROIC are moving up. FTR has gotten away from me a bit. I bought some ATPG leaps. LOL, dramatically overexposed but its a nice trade on permits. Up 6% so far but will probably get wacked in a few days. LRE - TWA is the man I follow here. I will buy underbook, probably when they buy back. I will likely double my position to 8% - 10%. JNJ - Dead money / too big for me. I will leave them alone, dont understand or care to understand healthcare. FFH - Will buy but they will need to get much cheaper. Under book, after hedges, bonds, and everything else. L - Perhaps. BH - Gets way too much press. This is dead money, the guy cant get anything done. Why bother. The easy money has been made.

Thanks TX, I will search for those other threads. I think I can understand tech but you are right, I have put no time into this at all and am really just looking at the bidding wars and prices paid. Dell is dirt cheap and alot of smart guys own. Its worth a look for sure. I will add it to the list. I just keep seeing value guys posting about negative working capital :), my eyes kinda glaze over. Im like thats not a reason to buy.

On Dell, whats your thesis? Same as everyone else? It seems cheap but they are buying expensive things. Per the economist they have no choice. Them and HP are under-siege with the tablets and phone devices. I like the move into the cloud, but believe this area of tech is simply too competitive.

You guys are taking great quotes and applying them to horrible situations inmo. But thats what makes a market ;D. Good luck.

Per the big short, ya. This is essentially what I do with 2 year options. Typically I want them dirt cheap or need a catalyst. It works quite well unless we have a massive downturn towards the end of the option contract :).

He must see some sort of catalyst.

Thanks for the link.

Someone has changed their tone in a few days. I hope you are right.

IC, either way we need a bit more difference than 2.0 units lol. Perhaps these numbers are just too big to be captured in a simple system. One is like a punch in the face, the next is like being run over by a car, and the last like being dropped from the sky 20,000 feet up. :) Its like how does one capture that.

No prob. During weeks like this I dont feel like I have much experience ;D. I find I check my stocks much less when they are going down lol.

To his point though it is a pretty bad idea. I mean who knows whats going on or if its a real company, or if there is real cash, or what. I could see if the CEO took a few million from a company (the company was $200 million and sold off 50%, then ya lets buy leaps), but this may not even be much of a company.

The guys who came up with the earthquake scale suck. I mean can we have a bit more variability. 6-8 is like 1000 times worse, thats nuts. I remember the talk during Haiti but I cant imagine the ground shaking at a 6, and then it shaking 1000 times more / worse.

Hey I live in Houston but could get killed on a work trip to any number of locals. Also have storms to worry about. For me its not worst case, its more like whats the point to all this. Be happy with what you have, and have a good time (whatever that means for you) while you are here. I would be a bit shock up in Cali though. My guess is the preparations there arent even 25% of what the Japanese have in place. ----- rmitz - Its a big broken window / bridge to nowhere. I dont think they can afford it long term. I guess the real question is can they finance it.

I agree. I am spending alot of time thinking about this. My 2 key takeways are not investing, they are 1. Life is dominated by black swans from time to time. 2. Life is fleeting, fragile, and short. It is meant to be enjoyed. Investing is more of a watch and see, I prefer to see what is served up and then bat. Its more reactionary then ...

He beat them by a day or so ;D. It was a wise move, I think we are in for a rough week, and frankly its warranted. This is a big deal.

I wish I had your balls. Had similar thoughts, but at this point. I will suffer through. We will both come out of this ok, but you will have a better batting average. Congrats.