valueinvestor
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Posts posted by valueinvestor
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I’m surprised people are trying to time the market. Do people really think the Dow will be lower than today in 5 years?
I llearned a lot lot of lessons from the last great recession. In 2008 when prices were falling, I took a big loss and then ended up doing some short sales as insurance that in the end ended up losing a little bit more. After Warren Buffett’s letter I woke up and closed shorts and just bought and held. I’ve been getting much better since then. I haven’t sold any stocks since about 2016 (with the exception of closing out LEAP options)
So I’m just holding onto my core positions and adding...companies with strong moats (60% SSD plus others....STNE, BYD, DEO). I feel OK holding most of these through World War III. I also have a few lottery tickets with far OOM 2 year options for airlines and Six Flags. I’m also not selling these, will likely hold them until 2022, at least the ones that don’t go bankrupt (i’d be surprised if some don’t). Very risky but it doesn’t take a large position for big games if it works out.
I am waiting to buy more of my core positions and maybe some “lotto tickets” if we test the previous lows or go lower. If Dow goes 50% lower than today I’ll even use leverage.
I don't think it's timing the market, but understanding what's constitutes as cheap/fair on a DCF basis considering what's going on.
If you've noticed I'm not waiting while there's a basket of opportunities. When Park Hotels was @$4, AerCap @$10, AEO @$6, RCL @ $20, etc. My cash went from 40% to 10% in a span of three hours - as a result the lost gains I had from not investing my entire portfolio for the last year and a half was paid back and then some.
Reason why I'm waiting now is because the current opportunities are like Microsoft where they increased earnings by 14%, but the stock appreciated by 80% last year due multiple expansion, which makes sense because multiples will rise due to QE. However it does not make sense with 10-13% discount rate, if companies do not spend the QE money, and hoard it. Especially since they have many reasons to do so because the lockdown can take longer than 6 months, and the coronavirus hasn't flattened yet.
Are there other stocks that can justify that? Yes - but many come with hairs. I do not know any that are synonymous to buying Bank of America during 2008.
Remember 90% of our gains, at least if you held sp500 etf came in five months out of this year.
I try not to take profits unless I have a holy moly moment...when I sort of cant believe the ramp up, too good to be true profits. happens very rarely of course but if it seems too good to be true, then take some profits, because dry tinder is always good to have. but I wouldn't say we are in this environment now, more appropriate when you are hitting new highs and many consecutive + days. as for this environment, I would be cautious about taking profits...unless you think we are in for greater corona hell
Not advocating to go 100% cash, but I do think it is warranted to take off some gains from cigar butt stocks and move it to quality compounders or cash if you can't find any at the right price.
EDIT: This is coming from a person who does not believe in selling and never sold a share of a wonderful business' stock because of high valuation.
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I agree the rally was an emotional one, but so was the sell off. Somewhere in between, it’ll settle, making adjustments for virus risks as well as QE Infinity and a Fed that has basically said it will print us out of this. Well, maybe not everyone, but folks with assets...
Just to provide a counterpoint, as a market, I do not think we priced in the effects of the pandemic. Although we've seen some stocks price the pandemic and then some individually - I do think the market has to decline 10-15% more to fully appreciate a 30% reduction in GDP, unprecedented unemployment, and most of all - the aversion for spending to expand. At best, a few months go by and we decline to 30% from highs but we have more information to justify the decline because we have less unknowns.
I do not think this decline compares to any other decline in history. Hence, I do not think it will be a great depression, but the decline of 2001 took two years to decline by 50% and the decline of 2008 took a full year to decline by 50%. If we follow history (not that we should), I think we should expect another decline.
The only way this decline will be cheap if corporations spend to expand and readjust their services to weather another pandemic, but if they stop spending and start hoarding, then it does not matter what the Feds does - they can print to infinity and we will still be in a secular decline.
what is your investment horizon? if it is to be nimble over short time periods, always take at least some profits. if for 5 years, move away from that keyboard
It's far longer, but many times I regretted taking chips off the table and reinvest.
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If it is 3-6 months or 12-18, it is still a short term event. Just avoid things susceptible to permanent impairments. Even better, buy durable businesses that get stronger during times like this. I've taken gains, but its just to manage the margin and rebalance.
You may very well be right Gregmal - unfortunately I feel this rally was more of an emotional one, than a rational one. Hence my ambivalence - a lot of the SMB's especially in the event and hospitality side may teeter towards bankruptcy, even with the support the government is providing. Being in the industry itself, people are worrying if they are going to still exist in the next six months.
If this does become true, I refuse to believe a industry-wide bankruptcy is insulated, and other industries will be unaffected. At the very least, I feel that Point-of-sales stocks may very well turn into Pieces-of-sh*ts.
Also when I'm trying to exercise foresight and walk in the shoes of the world's best companies, for example Starbucks, I do not think they are planning to use their spending for expansion, but rather on spending to keep afloat. With this aversion to expand, it is hard to see stocks rallying further without another dip.
However, I can definitely be wrong. At the end of the day, it does not matter, because on an absolute basis, stocks are not trading cheaply considering everything. Loved Starbucks at 15x-17x earnings with or without COVID-19, however 24x earnings is a bit of a stretch to reinvest my gains. I would rather wait and let the rally run out and have a cash position for at least declines in individual stocks, as opposed to 2008 situation.
Take just the gain off the table, and use the cash to pay yourself back the original investment.
All of our equity positions are now funded with 100% house money - even OBE! Original investment now sitting in FI equities, purchased after dividend cuts in the the 50-75% range, and earning a cash yield in the high teens.
... You might also want to think a bit on what you might do - if all these investments suddenly go up 300%+ over the next 18 months. Large lottery winners often curse their win, because the sudden wealth destroyed their lives.
SD
Thanks SD, glad to hear you're doing well!
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Past few days, I was struggling not to take some off the table considering the 50%-100%+ moves in a lot of the holdings. I sold 50% of my cruise, restaurant, private label credit card, and hotels stocks with the exception of Airline Service Providers such as Heico, AerCap and TDG, as they are compounders chugging along amidst this economic contraction.
Unfortunately, it is not in my nature to trade the market, so I feel a bit skittish. However looking at what's going on, I do not necessary agree with the market's assessment that COVID-19 will be over with in 3-6 months. Even if I am proven right, it's not unfathomable for the market to go higher because we already EDIT: are halfway towards getting back to where we started.
Do you think I'm getting in the way of my own compounding? How are you all feeling about the gains you made with this short downturn?
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Not exactly the world's savviest investors, but still ...
Exactly. Also the investment is small fish compared to this behemoth.
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One thing that really annoys me about Buffet in the last 2-3 years is his constant preaching that stocks are not expensive if interest rates stays low. At the same time, Berkshire was building a war chest of $100bn of cash. It's one thing when Bill Ackman says that stocks are cheap with interest rate being low. It's another when it is the icon of value investing pretty much saying that paying 30x FCF is okay due to low interest rates.
Personally I agreed with Buffett. I did think stocks were cheap (or fairly priced) in the context of 2-3% long term rates and nobody knowing what a coronavirus was.
But I've got Buffett beat because I didn't get on CNBC and publicly say so (not that they would have me), so I don't have to deal with anyone's ire :D
Also, I think the whole cash position is not only earmarked for investment, but also for insurance for any catastrophic losses. Especially considering he has a rule about it - I think it was called the Noah Rule.
Not sure why there's hostility against Ackman (not that BG2008 has it - however in general with media and the value investing community). I think he's phenomenal, really smart and could become one of the greatest investors of our time.
Before you post Valeant, JC Penny, Herbalife, etc. If you've invested in Ackman at the start of his fund, through the ups and downs, you should be able up 8x (even more before fees) over a sixteen year period.
I guess what I'm asking - is there something some of you all are seeing that I am not seeing?
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Nice to see a glimmer of hope for NY, but it must not be forgotten that a huge cost was taken to produce this outcome. It did not happen on its own. To compare Flu deaths to this (which occur without any sort of extreme measures like lockdowns or travel bans) is absurd.
Some models continue to project that deaths have yet to rise for the U.S., solidifying the thesis that deaths are delayed and this was not as widespread months ago as many thought. It has played out in order: places that have a surge of cases have a follow up surge of mortality ~2-3 weeks later. It has not occurred simultaneously around the world, but rather in a specific sequence.
The question once NY cools further is--will there be a Spain to our Italy (NYC)? NYC had rapid rate of growth in U.S. due to density (R0 is higher in that case), but other areas could follow. Nothing guaranteed, but other areas are taking precautions already after witnessing NY (which many claim are excessive). And we also have to see what happens when the actions that slowed progression (lockdown) are reversed.
Anyway, the reason we are all here: investing. This pandemic (which has been repeatedly minimized by many) has already had huge impact on markets & the economy and we have not even really seen the beginning of that (i.e. earnings season about to start...), and it may have a long shadow of impact even after this has all gone.
Clearly an impactful event that those who took this seriously & necessary precautions 1+ month ago dodged a big body blow. Always opportunities to dip in, but remember bear markets take time to play out (unless "this time is different"). Markets meanwhile are pricing in a 'V' type economic trajectory...
You can be right and market may still go up - any reason why you think it will more likely to go down? It could be a case the market already is going to look past that and it's already priced to the point it's considering 13% unemployment and 30% reduction in GDP, but not to the extent of another pandemic or outbreak e.g. second wave.
Curious to know your thoughts :)
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The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first.
For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand.
AERCAP
Parks Hotels and Resorts
Basket of Cruises
StoneCo
American Eagle
Urban Outfitters
Shopify
Tesla
Facebook
Heico
Transdigm
These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money.
American Eagle/Urban outfitters/Aercap go bankrupt => US dollar loses reserve status/we are back to cavemen is why I think assets can fall a lot farther.
Schwab, i think the US will do better than Europe in the coming months/years. What do you see replacing the US$ as reserve currency?
I don't see USD getting replaced. Was a tongue-in-cheek way to point out that there are at least a few possibilities between Aercap equity being worth $0 and whatever 'we won't need money' means.
UE is going to increase 10% in one month. Many, many people are going from record-low UE and wage increases for the first time in many years to being personally illiquid without massive government support in a matter of weeks. I'm pretty bearish on cruise ships and airline leasing companies at the moment. Don't let me derail the thread 8)
Ahh makes sense. I was saying you don't need money, in a tongue-in-cheek way if we do revert back to caveman status, but you have a right to be bearish. I just think it's a great time to purchase at maximum pessimism - but probably wouldn't bet the farm.
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Hei
Tdg
Spg
Bpy
Are you sure about BPY? BAM is known to take things private at the detiriment of minority shareholders
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Not my forte but take a look at MGM - insiders are buying.
Thank you! I'll take a look but would want it to go down some more. 3 P/E Ratio with China exposure is still a bit high for me, even at this stage.
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I'm hardly a forex expert, but to some degree have always assumed our "reserve currency" status is not so much related to our genius politicians/system but to the fact that we have the best businesses in the world calling US home. That again seems to be apparent when we look to COVID leadership. It was companies who took the lead, not politicians.
Hence my optimism, because it is hard to take down the behemoths of the US. However, if the US does not control it, it is in the realm of possibilities where the virus takes down quality businesses.
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SHOP, AER, RCL, TSLA, PK, STNE, AEO, FB, HEI, ROKU, TDG (Keep in mind I have 30% in cash)
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The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first.
For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand.
AERCAP
Parks Hotels and Resorts
Basket of Cruises
StoneCo
American Eagle
Urban Outfitters
Shopify
Tesla
Facebook
Heico
Transdigm
These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money.
American Eagle/Urban outfitters/Aercap go bankrupt => US dollar loses reserve status/we are back to cavemen is why I think assets can fall a lot farther.
Schwab, i think the US will do better than Europe in the coming months/years. What do you see replacing the US$ as reserve currency?
I think the risk is if the US does not control COVID-19 and other nations have controlled COVID-19 - then there's a real risk that the US will lose reserve status.
Edit: We can't rule this out due to the unpredictable nature of the virus - there's still a possibility of mutation, second wave, etc.
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The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first.
For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand.
AERCAP
Parks Hotels and Resorts
Basket of Cruises
StoneCo
American Eagle
Urban Outfitters
Shopify
Tesla
Facebook
Heico
Transdigm
These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money.
StoneCo - Care to share why it belongs to your list?
Trades at a ridiculous discount to peers valuation although increasing revs by near 100% year over year. It seems people don't like biz in brazil, and I don't blame them with the their track record but it seems legit when speaking to friends who live in brazil.
Edit: In fact - the desire to save cost and have remote services will allow stoneco to weather this and maybe thrive.
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The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first.
For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand.
AERCAP
Parks Hotels and Resorts
Basket of Cruises
StoneCo
American Eagle
Urban Outfitters
Shopify
Tesla
Facebook
Heico
Transdigm
These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money.
American Eagle/Urban outfitters/Aercap go bankrupt => US dollar loses reserve status/we are back to cavemen is why I think assets can fall a lot farther.
Ha ha ha. Life isn't worth living without distressed, slim fit jeans
I agree - but if that's the case the price of everything will go down in that case. It'll be armageddon. Also hard to imagine with $500M-750M in cash and no debt they will got bankrupt, especially with the rent deferrals.
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Actually, buying BP during the oils spill wasn’t all that profitable. Whatwad profitable we buying the collateral damage - stocks like HAL.
I generally don‘t buy the directly affected Company, But the collateral damage. These stocks may be down less, but typically their exposure to the calamity in question is way less, making them a better risk reward.
In terms of the current situation, Imam not sure that airlines hotel are a good buy currently. It seems that most airlines are probably zeros in a prolonged scenario and hotels may at least have raise capital to survive.
You're right but I think hotels are different, and especially in Park's is different. They are the best house in the worst neighborhood. Same with AerCap. Also, enough liquidity to weather for 6-8 months.
Any longer however I will feel this downturn may be greater than the recession, as viruses has no feelings on stimulus and whatever else. So trying to get into "safe" may protect your downside a bit intrinsically, but extrinsically (I mean share price) it may not.
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The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first.
For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand.
AERCAP
Parks Hotels and Resorts
Basket of Cruises
StoneCo
American Eagle
Urban Outfitters
Shopify
Tesla
Facebook
Heico
Transdigm
These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money.
How does Facebook have the overhang of BK?
Whoops my bad - typed that fast - I meant that facebook has an overhang from politics, congress desire to split it up etc. Some of these do not have an overhang of bk but have an overhang of sorts which should alleviate the overhang with time.
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The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first.
For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand.
AERCAP
Parks Hotels and Resorts
Basket of Cruises
StoneCo
American Eagle
Urban Outfitters
Shopify
Tesla
Facebook
Heico
Transdigm
These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money.
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I wouldn't bet the farm on this one, but considering it went through the GFC and did not declare bankruptcy, and the maturities are spread out evenly, it is compelling for discussion and further research.
My thinking is to keep it as a basket, that way if one or two falls, it can still be lucrative.
I can see that, but the hard part that I can't really grapple my head around is what's the natural earnings power of these businesses going fwd. Every time I hear a boat gets sick I wonder when people will stop going on these cruises. But now... not only can you get sick, you may be stuck floating on the water with no port for weeks! I'm sure there's probably some price to get people to jump on board, but what is that price? Who can really know the elasticity of something like this at this stage? So combined with high opex leverage I'm not sure how to put a fair value here...
As a 1-2% portfolio allocation, I do not think it matters. However for the sake of argument, there are solutions to make the consumer happy.
As with airlines and what happened with 9/11, where the possibility of not coming back, as opposed to being stuck in the air was higher in people's minds at the time - however with increased measures, people became comfortable with air travel.
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I wouldn't bet the farm on this one, but considering it went through the GFC and did not declare bankruptcy, and the maturities are spread out evenly, it is compelling for discussion and further research.
My thinking is to keep it as a basket, that way if one or two falls, it can still be lucrative.
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The lenders also didn't want these companies to go bankrupt:
PG&E
General Motors
Chrysler
Six Flags
Charter
Lehman Brothers
PHI Inc
iHeartMedia
Arch Coal
Alpha Natural Resources
Walter Energy
Linn Energy
Stelco
Sears
Circuit City
Borders
Visteon Corp
Lyondell Basell
However I think the lenders will definitely not want these cruise lines to go bankrupt
I don't think this often results in cases where there are great equity gains. I really don't like these. To me it feels like gambling the bailouts will bailout the equity which seems unlikely to me but things can happen :o :o :o
Haha point taken but to be fair just because they don’t want them to go bankrupt, doesn’t mean they won’t.
However even if it does go bankrupt - liquidation-wise should bring our downside to near zero.
It’s an asymmetric bet, but I don’t know how the bk process works with cruise lines.
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From an earnings perspective - these are incredibly cheap - trading around 2008 levels.
The only question is from a liquidation perspective are they cheap? They are trading 0.4-0.7 P/B and if that's the case, I'm sure we would be able to make a meager profit, if it goes to bankruptcy too? Unless, the cruise ships are worth half of their recorded value net of depreciation, then we get zero.
However I think the lenders will definitely not want these cruise lines to go bankrupt, as they are the #1, #2, #3 players in the world, hence they will lend and extend the maturities, not that it's needed for RCL or NCHL.
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So we get 100 bp cut to zero. $700 billion QE to be executed in weeks. And USD swap lines.
On a SUNDAY night, 2 days before an FMOC meeting.
Either Donald Trump had the Secret Service kidnap Jay Powell and put his pecker in a meat grinder New York style or they're scared shitless and have no idea what to do. I'm leaning towards the latter because Trump wouldn't know what a swap line was if it took a dump on the front lawn at Mar-a-Lago.
On a general sense yes, and although I not happy with this very sensible panic - however this could be one of those once-in-a-lifetime opportunities.
I don't think increasing rates at this moment, where people for the most part are incentivized to save is the best solution. This is one of those moments, where people need to invest (albeit prudently), otherwise how are we going to get through this if investors, people, businesses stay at homes and not spend.
Yeah, I'm not even sure how the market is going to interpret this. It's like yay zero rates, more qe but also like...are things really that bad that this needs to be done?
The other way is to increase rates, allow us to have more purchasing power as savers, but bankrupt a lot of companies in the process. Maybe a short term pain, but I'm leaning towards to the former. I don't think compounding a very real virus pandemic where it could infect 500,000 to 1M+ worldwide with increasing rates (and increasing unemployment) at the worst time is prudent, besides they had chances any time in the great bull market.
A simplistic view of course, but I would argue any view will only be part of a multivariate equation.
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Hi Everyone,
I realized that it was a long time since I've posted, however I shared everything I could share at the time. Everything finally came to a close, and I decided to put a pause. It seems the owner did not really want to let go, and I wanted this to be mutually-supported transaction, and therefore we both decided it is best just wait for now.
Although I have not acquired the business, I am quite happy with the way things have turned out. Thank you to everyone that supported me, let me know if there's anything I can do for you.
What are you doing with your gains?
in General Discussion
Posted
I don't have any smoking gun, and realize there's a possibility of these being zero. However at these prices, it's effectively a single 1-3x forward normalized earning stock. I pretty much zeroed out the cash flow this year, and used a discount rate of 10-13%, assuming cash flow is fully recovered by year 1 or 2.
When doing DCF, I do not have just one model, but several to create a range of possibilities. I typically pull the trigger on these situations by seeing if the range has more possibilities where the stock is multi-bagger, rather than a zero, if that makes sense. Sometimes, I just look at the reverse dcf and see what growth rate makes sense but at the end of the day, I DO NOT KNOW.
It's a low risk, high-uncertainty situation, where good portfolio allocation is key. Some of these can go to zero, and that's okay, as long some of them go up 2-3x.