sswan11

Positive view from Jeremy Siegel re mkt valuation: http://seekingalpha.com/article/289091-jeremy-siegel-gives-a-positive-stock-market-valuation-argument?source=email_authors_alerts

BTW, Marc Andreeson isn't just your average VC. He's one of the original Mosaic developers and co-founder of Netscape. He's made a further fortune in his VC investments (Facebook, et al). He's a software guy at heart. I didn't know he was on the HP board, I think that's a big plus for the company (too bad he's not running it!) http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/fortune/0910/gallery.40_under_40.fortune/10.html

From Credit Suisse analyst report, dated today: The multiple HP trades on today does not give much credit. Even on our lower estimates HP trades on a P/E of 6x, this is at an 42% discount to the market, and 29% below Dell and 44% below IBM. A glance at Exhibit 3 shows that the company is trading at the highest discount to IBM than in the past five years and the lowest multiple ever on earnings. Post these strategic moves, HP will offer comparable margins to IBM assuming limited synergies. This could allow shares command a higher multiple and allow scope for rerating. Exhibit 2: HP trades on 6x forward P/E…a 20 year low Exhibit 3: …and a 50% discount to IBM SOTP valuation suggests break-up value above $40. With the proposed separation/spinoff of the PSG business, investors will increasingly need to value the company on a SOTP basis or in terms of break-up value. As we show in Exhibit 4, at a share price of ~$25, the market may be valuing the entire consumer business (PC and Printing) at near zer

That's the frustrating thing about holding cash at IB - no interest on cash balances. The only exception I know of is to hold AUD$ or CAD$ funds for which IB will pay interest.

If S&P downgrades US debt I can imagine the markets might not take it well Monday.

Yes, you're right. http://seekingalpha.com/article/258060-aig-warrants-still-trade-cheap-vs-peers

Personally, I'm taking another look at bank and AIG 2018 warrants. Anyone hold C "A" warrants (I bought some BAC-A, which have really dropped, thinking about WFC, AIG, C)

http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/ 1) Be Careful What You Wish For. Politicians are popping champagne bottles and celebrating the end of cantankerous negotiations over the debt ceiling. I say be careful what you wish for. Let me give you my quickie, back of the envelope analysis of the debt ceiling deal in Washington. The compromise calls for $2.4 trillion in spending cuts over ten years. That amounts to 16.6% of GDP, or 1.6% per year. If the Federal Reserve’s 3.0% forecast comes true, that means our economic growth rate is about to fall to 1.4% a year. If my prediction comes true, and we grow at a 2.5% rate, that plunges to 0.9%. There is another country where GDP growth is measured in mere basis points: Japan. Congress has just voted for ten years of austerity. To do this at this stage of the economic cycle, when growth is feeble at best, and we have just seen two back to back quarters of growth at the 1% handle, is to guarantee us a second lost decade of zero stock market returns. Sure, the spending cuts are back end loaded. But you know what? Investors will front end load the discounts in asset prices this slow growth scenario demands. This is not good news for long term holders of risk assets of any description, be they stocks, commodities, or homes. This may be the riot act that financial markets are reading us today. Instead of getting the short covering rally that many of us expected, we were given a cascading series of flash crashes. The (SPX) cratered 35 points, oil cracked by $5, the Euro plunged 3 cents against the dollar, copper gave back 20 cents, and even gold pared $15. In the meantime, a flight to safety bid took bonds up two points to an incredibly low yield of 2.72%. Armchair historians out there have to be recognizing the similarity of 2011to 1937. That is when a republican congress forced Franklin D. Roosevelt to throttle back government spending too soon, throwing the country back into round two of the Great Depression. That triggered a 49% plunge in the stock market. The downturn continued until WWII delivered the greatest stimulus package of all time and ignited a 25 year bull market. To a large extent, there is not much anyone can do to repair the economy. Possibly as much as half of the economic growth of the past 30 years was borrowed from the future. This is because it was fueled by the $3 trillion that Ronald Reagan borrowed largely from the Japanese during 1980 to 1988, and the $5.5 trillion George W. Bush borrowed from the Chinese from 2000 to 2008. The bill is now due, but the piggy bank is empty. Decades of minimal growth will be the consequence. I doubt that there is a single business out there that can point to a new customer coming to them as a result of the debt deal. There will be tens of thousands that will moan about lost business. The republicans now own the economy. That may be something they come to regret.

Guru Focus article on HPQ: http://www.gurufocus.com/news/136838/hewlettpackard-hpq--story-of-hidden-pearls

from: http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/ June 9, 2011 – It’s Off to the Races for Natural Gas Featured Trades: (ITS OFF TO THE RACERS FOR NATURAL GAS), (WHY THE BANKS ARE TRADING LIKE GRIM DEATH), (BAC), (WFC), (XLF) 1) It’s Off to the Races for Natural Gas. Name one of the best performing assets since the “RISK OFF” trade started and it would have to be natural gas. You may recall my waxing bullish on this simple molecule in my piece seven weeks ago (click here for “Something is Bubbling in Natural Gas”). Since then, natural gas has rocketed by 30%. My call then was to wait for the cold summer that the weather models were then predicting to crater this clean burning fuel and load up on the cheap. It seems that the weather models are never right. Instead, The US East Coast is suffering a broiling summer, and it has been off to the races for natural gas. There have been other structural developments that have helped boost prices for CH4. With oil prices over $100 a barrel, the integrated majors are diverting rigs to new onshore oil development where the huge profits are, instead of using them to extract more underpriced gas. So gas rig counts are down, and industry insiders don’t expect an upturn until gas gets up to $7-$8/BTU, up from the current $4.85. This is limiting new supplies coming on stream from shale gas unlocked by the new ‘fracking” technologies. On top of that, an increasing number of utilities are taking advantage of low gas prices to switch over from coal. Others are making the change purely for environmental reasons, as natural gas produces only half the CO2 emissions and none of the NO2 or SO3 when compared to oil fired plants. The last coal fired plant in California was recently closed, where utilities like PG&E (PGE) are racing to obtain 30% of their power from alternatives by 2020. This is why the International Energy Agency expects American natural gas demand to increase by 50% over the next five years. What’s more, traders no longer have to fear weather spikes from gas prices, like the hurricanes of the past, as so much of the new gas supplies are coming from onshore. Very little new gas now comes from the Gulf of Mexico when compared to past years. Longer term, the 800 pound gorilla for this market is the prospect of exports to Asia, especially energy hungry China. They haven’t started yet as the infrastructure is not in place, but it is under construction. When that happens you can expect the crude/natural gas price gap to disappear. Gas currently sells for 20% of the price of crude on a BTU basis. How to play it? Don’t touch the ETF (UNG) which has one of the worst tracking errors in the industry. Instead, invest in individual producers, equipment suppliers, and pipeline companies, like Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Devon Energy (DVN), Cheniere Energy (LNG), and Southwestern Energy (SWN).

One thing Intel does with its cash flow is make "seed" investments in various tech initiatives and spin-offs, in which it retains an equity stake; like a VC investor.

I would agree, though this seems to be what the market perceives right now. I own both MSFT and INTC, btw, and worked (as a contractor) at both, 94-98 at MS and 99-00 at Intel. Here's another article from same source: http://moneymorning.com/2011/05/26/after-a-decade-of-miscues-can-microsoft-corp-nasdaq-msft-hook-up-with-the-mobile-revolution/

Anybody seen this series? http://moneymorning.com/2011/05/23/where-money-goes-die-after-decade-decline-can-microsoft-intel-and-cisco-pull-off-rebound/

Judging from his holdings, I presume Bruce Berkowitz would be in the bullish camp.

John Paulson buys 25 million shares of HPQ: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-05-17/paulson-takes-1-billion-hewlett-packard-stake-adds-to-gold-bet.html Paulson bought 25 million shares in Hewlett-Packard, valued at about $1 billion, according to a regulatory filing yesterday.

I don't know if someone already posted this Fox Business interview which negatively views Skype purchase: http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4693790/growing-pressure-facing-blankfein-at-goldman/?playlist_id=87062&source=TheMotleyFool#/v/4687438/skype-deal-a-disaster-for-microsoft/?playlist_id=87062 (sorry, didn't clean up the URL)

Well, IBM might still be around. It's made it this far (since early 1900s). Is Microsoft the "new IBM", a huge computer company relying increasingly on corporate sales?

I think a VAT is inevitable, preceded by higher personal income taxes. Personally, I'd like to follow Michael Burry's advice and move to Canada, where at least the currency is strong and you get something for your taxes!

I noticed the ICO Jan13 strike 15 calls are apparently still trading (as well as Jan12). Why would that be, as it is well above the takeover price? I'm thinking of selling covered calls against my ICO position for a few extra bucks...

Possible worry re INTC? http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9216477/Apple_defection_would_be_slap_in_the_face_to_Intel

I don't know FFH' average cost, but they added < $2 share in late 2008.

I take it you plan to exercise the JNJ calls in Jan 13 (presuming they are in the money), whatever the price. Interesting, I've never exercised options - do you just tell your broker? You can see historical prices (for current options only - not already expired) in ETrade through the graphing function (hit "Details").

I have a friend who essentially a (current) HPQ lifer; says one of HPQs profit "sweet spots" is the printer cartridge business, akin to razor (blades).

How about beaten-down Japanese exporters such as CAJ, or even the index ETFs (EWJ). I sold puts on those.

I do have some questions: What fruits are ok, which are not? bananas, oranges? What about tea and coffee? How much coffee is ok? Should tea always be green tea? I presume honey is NOT ok. Any danger of "overdoing it" (not getting ENOUGH glucose?) Thank you. BTW, I have lost 12 lbs in 3 weeks - no sugar, low carbs.