asterisk
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Posts posted by asterisk
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I apologize if this has been asked, but is anyone aware of the time the NWS is posted online?
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Since no one posted this video yesterday of Mnuchin talking about housing reform specificly.. Here it is.. http://finance.yahoo.com/video/steven-mnuchin-housing-reform-priority-140034730.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw
So from now till the end of 2017 there should be a plan proposed.
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fairholme owns about 20% of series S (fannie) and maybe 5-10% of other series (I think). Not sure about others...
Thank you.
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I apologize if they had been discussed before. Has anyone looked at or even knows how much preferred each hedge fund owns? Thank you!
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In regards to the lunch tomorrow- the topic of F&F has to come up in budget negotiations. Do you all think we are underestimating the influence of the individuals who in a sense purchased an out of the money call by supporting Trump? (Icahn, Paulson, etc)
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The market seems to be pricing in very little growth for the foreseeable future.... Question.. Would it be more appropriate to compare years on the basis of if there are new products out rather than just the update/upgrade year...
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"The concern I have is that if oil stays in the high 30's and even the low 40's then over time will American production return. Are we going to be in the same boat next fall?"
What about climbing a wall of worries? High $30's and low $40's oil? The $30's were unconceivable to the industry in December 2015.
I am not picking on you Asterisk but, that is what everyone is wondering now.
There are two things in that statement that need to be discussed:
1- American oil is not everything. While the media keeps putting most emphasis on U.S. production and U.S. inventories, there is a much larger world around the U.S. $100's of billions of capex have been cut around the world and the effect is just starting to appear: Brazil, North Sea, Canadian oil sands, you name it. As Uccmal mentioned, many of these are large, long lead projects with low decline rates. While the decline in production takes longer to appear, it will be much more profound longer term. Projects that were completed in the Gulf of Mexico of that type are the cause of the lower than expected decline in U.S. production so far.
2- The American shale oil boom is over. The rig count has been cut by 2/3 and most of these employees who have been laid off have gone elsewhere. Many oil & gas service firms will disappear or be consolidated. Older rigs are also being scrapped (see Precision Drilling for example). Even the bravado king Harrold Hamm is forecasting a 9.5% production decline year over year at Continental. The decline would be even worst if one was to look at the 2016 exit rate. The acquisitive and arrogant Crescent Point is cutting its dividend, again, this morning. We should see at 10:30 am what the EIA has to say but, the trend in production was firmly down over the last 4 weeks.
When the stock market goes up along with oil, you don't hear about the energy debt crisis but, it was discussed yesterday. This issue is not going away at $30, $40 or even $50 oil. Line of credits are going to get cut in April no matter what and the bond market is nearly shut.
The situation is very similar to any cyclical industry. Take U.S. housing for example from 2001 to 2010. Financing was easily available. Cost of housing, construction labor, material and land were going up continually. Then it reversed. Financing dried up. Cost of housing, construction labor, material and land were going down. How long did it take post 2009 until the situation stabilized and homes were built again?
I would say that we are into the restructuring and consolidation phase. Production should keep on declining as only the very best assets will be drilled with still high decline rates of roughly 30% a year.
Cardboard
I didn't think you were at all. It seems that the rig count has come down substantially more than the production has. Possibly we got rid of all the small and inefficient rigs. Also, in terms of the rally, how much of that was due to the "freeze" agreement? It seems right now that the price as gone away from reality to rumors about the supply side. These are just some thoughts that I had.
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The concern I have is that if oil stays in the high 30's and even the low 40's then over time will American production return. Are we going to be in the same boat next fall?
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Thank you for the response. I believe you or others have mentioned the difference between an ETN such as DWTI and the actual price of crude do not respond in sync. Can you dive more into that. DWTI is bas on S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Excess, which I have noticed is out of synch with the crude oil futures. Any help would be great? Thank you!
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Hey Cardboard could you touch more on the manipulation of UDTI and DWTI? Thanks!
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Thank you for providing this. While the macro predictions can go either way, the conceptual thinking was very beneficial. Do you have previous versions of this?
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Thank you very much. I must have used the wrong search function.
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I thought it would be useful to get a list of blogs per category: macro, value, small-cap, large-cap, etc.
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hahaha. As a college student, I really like the ecosystem. The integration of Prime Videos is great when you think about how new movies are free quickly. Also, the iPad at this point costs more than its worth.
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Kindle Fire on Prime Day. Cost 69 dollars I believe
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Welcome to the forum,
We share a similar background, although I didn't master in forensic accounting. Do you think learning about forensic accounting has sharpened you as an investor, in regards to detecting BS games management is trying to play?
I think it has improved some what. That was a motive behind pursing the masters. Although most of the fraud is not discovered until its too late
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Most of Saudi Arabia’s 10.3m barrels a day (b/d) of output passes through the Shia heartland, now seething with fury. While global crude stocks are at record levels, there is no spare capacity outside Saudi Arabia. A disruption lasting more than a few days could cause oil prices to spike violently – possibly to $200 or more – triggering a worldwide economic crisis.
Helima Croft, from RBC Capital Markets, said investors have yet to wake up to the full danger. “If we’d had scenes five years ago of the Saudi embassy in flames in Tehran there would have been a big move in the price, but right now there is so much over-supply and people just seem to think this is all noise. They have yet to get their heads around what can go wrong,” she said.
SD
Wouldn't Iran have more to lose than to gain from attacking the Kingdom? It can be certain that the nuclear deal wouldn't be dropped.
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We put it to you that within the next 12-18 months the existing House of Saud is gone; the current leadership either assinated, or replaced by elder statesmen – to ensure that the house survives. Beheading a cleric was an incredibly stupid and incendiary action. Everywhere else, there would have been a simple - but permanent slip and fall.
US support will expire within the next 12 months as Obama exits. The region will also be a lot safer for all with the war over, and materially higher crude prices. Record global inventory awash with low cost crude, will minimize supply disruption. It is pretty hard to find a better time.
SD
It would be very interesting how the US would react to an attack on the House of Saud.
Correct me if I'm wrong and I don't want to involve political opinions. But a republican in office would be a plus for the Saudi relationship?
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I'll admit the first minute or so had me interested lol ;)
The plot seems good. The one downside is that they have already gone into the "battle" part of the plot so early. I understand that is to get people interested but it will be interesting to see how long the "battle" will last. It seems like the Suits of finance.
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Why we think that low oil prices are here to stay for many years:
http://www.dalalholdings.com/blog.html
New drilling (shale) technology has unleashed large quantities of crude oil unforeseen by many.
Oil producers find themselves in a "Prisoner's Dilemma" (a la Game Theory): they want others to stop producing, but can't stop themselves.
As in the natural gas industry, Wall Street encouraged shale production growth over profits and drillers hence oversupplied the oil market.
Key Insight: Because shale oil production can be ramped up and rapidly brought to market, shale will put a ceiling on oil prices, not a floor.
Interesting thought is that the shale supply will only be reduced if there are bankruptcies.. Otherwise the shale producers only need a small period of time to turn back on their operations.
It cannot be ignored that the long-term consequences of oil at sub-40 levels will lead to higher debt loads and political instability in oil dependent nations. Saudi Arabia cannot cut their social welfare and subsidies. The fear is that if the subsidies and welfare is cut then there will be protests and the population will turn against the government. The Saudis can deal with these prices for a couple years but it will be interesting if they will want to put that strain on themselves.
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I wanted to introduce myself to the board. I am in my early twenties and will be graduating with my graduate degree in a few months. I started looking at equities when I was roughly 16 and did not realize at the time that we were in one of the largest economic falls that I may experience in my lifetime. I purchased a few shares of PM, MO, GE and took an initial hit that taught me the value of staying power. The interest in equities led me to pursue an undergraduate degree in accounting and I took a fair share of finance class along the way. I am pursuing a Masters in Forensic Accounting and am involved in a student-run mutual fund. I look forward to conversing with some of you and learning along the way.
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FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
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